Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
936 AM EDT Mon May 13 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the area late today. Cool high
pressure will build in from the west through midweek. A cold
front with limited moisture will cross the area late week. High
pressure will build over the area next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 935 AM Mon...Latest sfc analysis shows 1005mb parent low
near Lake Erie, with warm front near the Albemarle Sound and
Northern Outer Banks with a weak low along the northern Outer
Banks and the main cold front moving into the NC Piedmont. The
cold front will continue to push eastward today and move through
late this afternoon. Latest radar imagery shows a few showers
across the northern coastal plain near the front. Though deepest
moisture has been displaced by drier westerly flow, the
combination of a strong mid level trough and surface cold front
moving through the area should trigger scattered showers and
thunderstorms mainly this afternoon into early this evening.
Satellite indicating widespread low clouds across much of the
area this morning but these clouds were beginning to erode and
should allow heating/destabilization to occur beginning early
this afternoon just ahead of the cold front. This will allow
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon with the frontal passage. A few of the storms could be
strong with gusty winds given the strong deep layer shear.
Small hail could also be present with any stronger convection
given the cold temps aloft (-14C at 500mb) and freezing levels
11-12 kft. The high resolution models are suggesting that the
front could interact with the sea from the Crystal Coast to the
southern Outer Banks enhancing convection 20-23Z. Low level
thickness values support highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
As of 315 AM Mon...Precip should be ending pretty quickly this
evening pushing offshore behind the front. Cooler and drier air
will filter into the area with low level N/NW flow. Lows
dropping into the low 50s inland and upper 50s to around 60
along the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 AM Mon...Dry and much cooler weather expected through
mid week, then generally dry with a warming trend late week into
the weekend.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Cyclonic flow aloft continues
through mid week with an upper low tracking from New England to
the Canadian Maritimes and several embedded shortwaves moving
through the flow aloft.

Pleasantly cool temps expected this period under NW flow sfc and
aloft, with sfc high pres centered across the OH Valley.
Dry weather is expected with comfortable dewpoints in the 40s.
Temps will be several degrees below climo with highs around
70-75 inland to upper 60s OBX. Lows expected in the mid to upper
40s inland to mid 50s along the coast.

Thursday...A shortwave through digs southeastward on lee side
of longwave Wed night and Thu, albeit with limited moisture to
work with. 00Z model guidance is mostly dry and thus kept PoPs
low for the period. A few showers still cannot be ruled out
mainly near the coast, but if anything develops it will be very
widely scattered. A moderating trend in temps expected as flow
begins to become zonal with sfc high offshore. Temps expected to
rise to near climo, with lows in the low 50s Wed night - a few
spots may possibly hit the upper 40s with good radiational
cooling expected. High Thu expected in the upper 70s to lower
80s interior to the mid 70s beaches. Lows Thu night mid/upr 50s
inland to low 60s beaches.

Friday through Sunday...High pressure and upper ridging is
progged to build in late in the week and over the weekend
bringing generally dry weather and warming temps. The 00z
model guidance continues to show another subtle shortwave and
backdoor cold front crossing the area Friday night into early
Saturday with a few light showers pushing across the area. Still
some disagreement on timing and how far south the front makes
it, which precludes moving up PoPs an appreciable amount from
the previous forecast. Where the front ends up also has
implications on the temperature forecast at the end of the
period; if the front stays north with southwesterly sfc flow
temperatures could rise into the low 90s into the weekend.
Leaned the forecast more towards the ECM ensembles which pushes
the front to our south and highs in the upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 645 AM Mon...Cigs expected to gradually lower to MVFR/IFR
early this morning and likely persist through mid to late
morning. Ceilings will improve this afternoon with scattered
showers and thunderstorms possible ahead of a cold front moving
through the area.

Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 3 AM Mon...VFR mainly SKC through the period. High
pressure builds into the area through the rest of the week with
light winds expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 935 AM Mon...Latest obs show SW winds 10-20 kt with seas
3-6 ft. Weak front has pushed into the Albemarle Sound and the
northern waters early this morning, and winds have shifted to
the NE. The wind shift across the northern waters will be short
lived this morning becoming briefly W before shifting to the N
late in the afternoon. Cold front over west central NC will
continue to push eastward today and through the waters late this
afternoon and early evening. W/SW flow generally 10-20 kt
today, strongest south of Oregon Inlet, with seas 3-6 ft. Could
see stronger winds 20-25 kt develop across the outer central and
southern waters late this afternoon and early evening. SCAs
continue south of Oregon Inlet through this evening and first
part of tonight for gusty winds and elevated seas. N/NW winds
10-20 kt develop this evening behind the front with seas
gradually subsiding below 6 ft. The northern waters could get
close to SCA levels, occasional gusts to 25 kt and seas
approaching 6 ft, this evening for a few hours behind the front.

Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 3 AM Mon...High pressure builds into the are through mid
week. NW winds diminish 10-15 kt through Tuesday. Seas subside
to 2-4 ft Tue. The upper level trough axis crosses the area late
Tue/Tue night which will serve to tighten the gradients across
the waters with NW winds increasing to 15-20 kt, though at this
time expected to remain below SCA range. The winds diminish to
less than 10 kt and seas subsiding to 2-4 ft northern waters and
1-3 ft southern waters on Wed as high pres builds into the
area. The high becomes centered offshore Thu and Fri with SW to
W winds around 15 kt or less with seas around 2-4 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ156-
     158.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...TL/MS
AVIATION...CQD/TL
MARINE...JME/CQD/TL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
341 AM EDT Mon May 13 2019

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198-140745-
Martin-Pitt-Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Greene-Beaufort-
Mainland Hyde-Duplin-Lenoir-Jones-Pamlico-Northern Craven-
Southern Craven-Inland Onslow-
341 AM EDT Mon May 13 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ195-196-199-203>205-140745-
West Carteret-East Carteret-Coastal Onslow-Northern Outer Banks-
Ocracoke Island-Hatteras Island-
341 AM EDT Mon May 13 2019

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Moderate Rip Current Risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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