Alert archive / North Carolina / Beach Hazards Statements in 2019

Beach Hazards Statement 27, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

September 4, 20194 counties in North Carolina

NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC issued this beach hazards statement at Sep 4, 2019, 8:41 PM EDT for 4 counties in North Carolina. It was in force for 47 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Sep 4, 2019, 8:41 PM EDT (00:41 UTC)
Expired
Sep 6, 2019, 8:00 PM EDT
In force
47 hr
Issued by
NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Counties Carteret County, NC, Dare County, NC, Hyde County, NC, Onslow County, NC

The radar

The Morehead City radar (KMHX), 61 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 00:00Z, 0.7 hours before the alert went out and 61 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Newport, NC at 00:00Z on 2019-09-05Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 347 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Newport, NC at 00:00Z on 2019-09-05The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -59 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
347 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-160 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1123 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
20 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-59 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-14 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
-0.0
Supercell composite
-0.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

729 
WHUS42 KMHX 050041
CFWMHX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
841 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019

...HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS THURSDAY ON ALL AREA BEACHES...

.Continued long period swell energy from powerful Hurricane
Dorian off the coast of Florida will lead to a high threat of rip
currents for all area beaches today. This swell will continue to 
impact area beaches through late week, leading to a prolonged 
period of active and strong rip currents.

NCZ195-196-199-203>205-051245-
/O.NEW.KMHX.BH.S.0027.190905T0041Z-190907T0000Z/
West Carteret-East Carteret-Coastal Onslow-Northern Outer Banks-
Ocracoke Island-Hatteras Island-
841 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Newport/Morehead City has issued
a Beach Hazards Statement, which is in effect through Friday
evening.

* HAZARDS...High risk for dangerous rip currents, strong shore 
  break and longshore currents.

* LOCATIONS...All areas beaches.

* TIMING AND TIDES...The most likely time for strong rip 
  currents to develop will be a couple of hours before and after 
  low tide which will occur between 5 PM and 6 PM this 
  afternoon. Strong rip currents can still develop at any time 
  of the day.

* SURF HEIGHT...6 TO 11 FT

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If caught in a rip current remain calm. Don't fight the current.
Swim in a direction following the shoreline. When out of the
current, swim back to shore. If tired, float or tread water until
out of the rip current. If unable to escape, face the shore and
call or wave for help.

Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. The
most common injuries with strong shore break are neck and back
injuries, which most often occur when the powerful surf throws a
swimmer or surfer head first into the bottom. It is extremely
important to protect your head and neck whenever you are in
breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at all
times.


&&

$$
5 follow-up statements
554 
WHUS42 KMHX 050734
CFWMHX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
334 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019

...HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ON ALL AREA BEACHES...

.Continued long period swell energy from powerful Hurricane
Dorian off the coast of Florida will lead to a high threat of rip
currents for all area beaches today. This swell will continue to
impact area beaches through late week, leading to a prolonged
period of active and strong rip currents.

NCZ195-196-199-203>205-051945-
/O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0027.000000T0000Z-190907T0000Z/
West Carteret-East Carteret-Coastal Onslow-Northern Outer Banks-
Ocracoke Island-Hatteras Island-
334 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

* HAZARDS...High risk for dangerous rip currents, strong shore 
  break and longshore currents.

* LOCATIONS...All areas beaches.

* TIMING AND TIDES...The most likely time for strong rip currents
  to develop will be a couple of hours before and after low tide
  which will occur between 7 PM and 8 PM this evening. Strong rip
  currents can still develop at any time of the day.

* SURF HEIGHT...6 TO 11 FT

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If caught in a rip current remain calm. Don't fight the current.
Swim in a direction following the shoreline. When out of the
current, swim back to shore. If tired, float or tread water until
out of the rip current. If unable to escape, face the shore and
call or wave for help.

Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. The
most common injuries with strong shore break are neck and back
injuries, which most often occur when the powerful surf throws a
swimmer or surfer head first into the bottom. It is extremely
important to protect your head and neck whenever you are in
breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at all
times.

&&

$$
272 
WHUS42 KMHX 051450
CFWMHX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1050 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019

...HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ON ALL AREA BEACHES...

.Continued long period swell energy from powerful Hurricane
Dorian off the coast of Florida will lead to a high threat of rip
currents for all area beaches today. This swell will continue to
impact area beaches through late week, leading to a prolonged
period of active and strong rip currents.

NCZ195-196-199-203>205-060300-
/O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0027.000000T0000Z-190907T0000Z/
West Carteret-East Carteret-Coastal Onslow-Northern Outer Banks-
Ocracoke Island-Hatteras Island-
1050 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

* HAZARDS...High risk for dangerous rip currents, strong shore 
  break and longshore currents.

* LOCATIONS...All areas beaches.

* TIMING AND TIDES...The most likely time for strong rip 
  currents to develop will be a couple of hours before and after 
  low tide which will occur between 7 PM and 8 PM this evening. 
  Strong rip currents can still develop at any time of the day.

* SURF HEIGHT...6 TO 11 FT

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If caught in a rip current remain calm. Don't fight the current.
Swim in a direction following the shoreline. When out of the
current, swim back to shore. If tired, float or tread water until
out of the rip current. If unable to escape, face the shore and
call or wave for help.

Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. The
most common injuries with strong shore break are neck and back
injuries, which most often occur when the powerful surf throws a
swimmer or surfer head first into the bottom. It is extremely
important to protect your head and neck whenever you are in
breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at all
times.

&&

$$
606 
WHUS42 KMHX 060014
CFWMHX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
814 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019

...HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ON ALL AREA BEACHES...

.Continued long period swell energy from powerful Hurricane
Dorian off the coast of Florida will lead to a high threat of rip
currents for all area beaches today. This swell will continue to
impact area beaches through late week, leading to a prolonged
period of active and strong rip currents.

NCZ195-196-199-203>205-061215-
/O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0027.000000T0000Z-190907T0000Z/
West Carteret-East Carteret-Coastal Onslow-Northern Outer Banks-
Ocracoke Island-Hatteras Island-
814 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

* HAZARDS...High risk for dangerous rip currents, strong shore 
  break and longshore currents.

* LOCATIONS...All areas beaches.

* TIMING AND TIDES...The most likely time for strong rip 
  currents to develop will be a couple of hours before and after 
  low tide which will occur between 7 PM and 8 PM this evening. 
  Strong rip currents can still develop at any time of the day.

* SURF HEIGHT...6 TO 12 FT

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If caught in a rip current remain calm. Don't fight the current.
Swim in a direction following the shoreline. When out of the
current, swim back to shore. If tired, float or tread water until
out of the rip current. If unable to escape, face the shore and
call or wave for help.

Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. The
most common injuries with strong shore break are neck and back
injuries, which most often occur when the powerful surf throws a
swimmer or surfer head first into the bottom. It is extremely
important to protect your head and neck whenever you are in
breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at all
times.

&&

$$
324 
WHUS42 KMHX 061006
CFWMHX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
606 AM EDT Fri Sep 6 2019

...HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ON ALL AREA BEACHES...

.Continued long period swell energy from Hurricane Dorian moving
up the NC coast will lead to a high threat of rip currents for 
all area beaches today. This swell will continue to impact area 
beaches through the weekend, leading to a prolonged period of 
active and strong rip currents.

NCZ195-196-199-203>205-062215-
/O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0027.000000T0000Z-190907T0000Z/
West Carteret-East Carteret-Coastal Onslow-Northern Outer Banks-
Ocracoke Island-Hatteras Island-
606 AM EDT Fri Sep 6 2019

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

* HAZARDS...High risk for dangerous rip currents, strong shore 
  break and longshore currents.

* LOCATIONS...All areas beaches.

* TIMING AND TIDES...The most likely time for strong rip currents
  to develop will be a couple of hours before and after low tide
  which will occur around 8 AM. 

* SURF HEIGHT...8 TO 15 FT

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If caught in a rip current remain calm. Don't fight the current.
Swim in a direction following the shoreline. When out of the
current, swim back to shore. If tired, float or tread water until
out of the rip current. If unable to escape, face the shore and
call or wave for help.

Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. The
most common injuries with strong shore break are neck and back
injuries, which most often occur when the powerful surf throws a
swimmer or surfer head first into the bottom. It is extremely
important to protect your head and neck whenever you are in
breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at all
times.

&&

$$
376 
WHUS42 KMHX 070029
CFWMHX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
829 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2019

...MINOR SOUNDSIDE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER BANKS AND
DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY INTO SATURDAY... 
...ROUGH SURF AND A HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE 
NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS THROUGH SATURDAY...

.Minor soundside flooding will continue for areas adjacent to the
Pamlico Sound, including soundside Outer Banks and Downeast 
Carteret County. Water levels will gradually recede overnight into
Saturday as winds continue to diminish. Dangerous rip currents, rough
surf, beach erosion and ocean overwash will continue north of 
Cape Hatteras through Saturday.  

NCZ203-205-071230-
/O.EXP.KMHX.BH.S.0027.000000T0000Z-190907T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMHX.CF.Y.0005.190907T0029Z-190907T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KMHX.SU.Y.0008.190907T0029Z-190907T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KMHX.BH.S.0028.190907T0029Z-190908T0000Z/
Northern Outer Banks-Hatteras Island-
829 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2019

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT SATURDAY...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Newport/Morehead City has issued
a High Surf Advisory, which is in effect until 7 PM EDT Saturday.
A Coastal Flood Advisory has also been issued. This Coastal Flood
Advisory is in effect until 11 AM EDT Saturday. In addition, a
Beach Hazards Statement has been issued. This Beach Hazards
Statement is in effect through Saturday evening.

* HAZARDS...Minor coastal flooding, high risk for dangerous rip
  currents, and rough surf. 

* LOCATIONS...Minor soundside flooding will continue for the Outer
  Banks. Dangerous rip currents, rough surf, beach erosion and
  ocean overwash expected for the beaches north of Cape Hatteras.

* TIMING AND TIDES...The most likely time for strong rip currents
  to develop will be a couple of hours before and after low tide
  which will occur around 9 AM Saturday.

* SURF HEIGHT...7 to 10 FT.

* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Up to 2 feet of inundation above ground
  level will continue for low-lying areas near shorelines and 
  tidal waterways resulting in a low threat of property damage. 
  Some roads and low lying property including parking lots, parks,
  lawns, and homes adjacent to the waterfront will experience 
  shallow flooding.

* SHORELINE IMPACTS...Minor beach erosion and overwash. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Surf Advisory means that high surf will affect beaches in
the advisory area, producing localized beach erosion and
dangerous swimming conditions.

A Coastal Flood Advisory indicates that onshore winds and tides
will combine to generate flooding of low areas along the shore.

If caught in a rip current remain calm. Don't fight the current.
Swim in a direction following the shoreline. When out of the
current, swim back to shore. If tired, float or tread water until
out of the rip current. If unable to escape, face the shore and
call or wave for help.

Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. The
most common injuries with strong shore break are neck and back
injuries, which most often occur when the powerful surf throws a
swimmer or surfer head first into the bottom. It is extremely
important to protect your head and neck whenever you are in
breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at all times.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

Duck  NC
MLLW Categories - Minor 5.5 ft, Moderate 6.0 ft, Major 6.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.8 ft, Moderate 2.3 ft, Major 2.8 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 07/02 AM     6.1        2.4        3.2       7-8    Moderate  
 07/03 PM     5.6        1.9        1.8        5      Minor    
 08/04 AM     4.1        0.4        1.2       3-4      None    
 08/04 PM     4.8        1.1        1.1        3       None    
 09/05 AM     3.9        0.2        1.0        2       None

Oregon Inlet NC
MLLW Categories - Minor 3.0 ft, Moderate 4.5 ft, Major 5.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 2.4 ft, Moderate 3.9 ft, Major 4.9 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 07/02 AM     3.2        2.6        2.3        2      Minor    
 07/03 PM     2.5        1.9        1.4        1       None    
 08/04 AM     1.8        1.2        0.9        1       None    
 08/04 PM     1.9        1.3        0.8        1       None    
 09/06 AM     1.8        1.2        0.8        1       None

Coast Guard Hatteras NC
MLLW Categories - Minor 2.5 ft, Moderate 3.5 ft, Major 4.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.3 ft, Moderate 2.3 ft, Major 3.3 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 07/01 AM     3.0        1.8        2.5       2-3     Minor    
 07/04 PM     1.8        0.6        1.1        1       None    
 08/04 AM     1.4        0.2        0.8        1       None    
 09/05 AM     1.4        0.2        0.8        1       None

&&

$$

NCZ196-071230-
/O.EXP.KMHX.BH.S.0027.000000T0000Z-190907T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMHX.CF.Y.0005.190907T0029Z-190907T1500Z/
East Carteret-
829 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2019

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in Newport/Morehead City has issued
a Coastal Flood Advisory, which is in effect until 11 AM EDT
Saturday.

* LOCATIONS...Downeast Carteret County.

* TIMING...through Saturday.

* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Up to 2 feet of inundation above ground
  level will continue in low-lying areas near shorelines and 
  tidal waterways resulting in a low threat of property damage. 
  Some roads and low lying property including parking lots, parks,
  lawns, and homes adjacent to the waterfront will experience 
  shallow flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Coastal Flood Advisory indicates that onshore winds and tides
will combine to generate flooding of low areas along the shore.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

Beaufort Marine Lab NC
MLLW Categories - Minor 5.0 ft, Moderate 5.5 ft, Major 6.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.5 ft, Moderate 2.0 ft, Major 3.0 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 07/03 AM     4.1        0.6        1.0        1       None    
 07/04 PM     5.1        1.6        1.4        1      Minor    
 08/04 AM     3.9        0.4        0.9        1       None    
 08/05 PM     4.7        1.2        1.0        1       None    
 09/05 AM     4.0        0.5        1.0        1       None

&&

$$

NCZ204-071230-
/O.EXP.KMHX.BH.S.0027.000000T0000Z-190907T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMHX.CF.Y.0005.190907T0029Z-190907T1500Z/
Ocracoke Island-
829 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2019

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS EXPIRED...

The National Weather Service in Newport/Morehead City has issued
a Coastal Flood Advisory, which is in effect until 11 AM EDT
Saturday.

* LOCATIONS...Soundside Ocracoke Island. 

* TIMING...through Saturday.

* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Up to 2 feet of inundation above ground
  level will continue in low-lying areas near shorelines and 
  tidal waterways resulting in a low threat of property damage. 
  Some roads and low lying property including parking lots, parks,
  lawns, and homes adjacent to the waterfront will experience 
  shallow flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Coastal Flood Advisory indicates that onshore winds and tides
will combine to generate flooding of low areas along the shore.

&&

$$

NCZ195-199-070130-
/O.EXP.KMHX.BH.S.0027.000000T0000Z-190907T0000Z/
West Carteret-Coastal Onslow-
829 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2019

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS EXPIRED...

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this beach hazards statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this beach hazards statement went out at Sep 4, 7:59 PM EDT, 42 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 4, 7:59 PM EDT, 42 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
759 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Hurricane Dorian will approach from the south tonight and
Thursday. Dorian is forecast to track along the Southeast coast
through the end of the workweek. Significant impacts are
becoming more likely for eastern North Carolina late Thursday
through Friday evening. High pressure builds in next weekend
with dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 750 PM Wed...Hi-res guidance seems insistent that the
current band of very light rain will dissipate overnight, but
given current divergence aloft with associated upper level jet
and good convergence below can't completely rule out further
periods of drizzly/light showers mainly along the coast. No
further changes needed this update.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Wed...The NHC continues good run to run consistency
with the track of Hurricane Dorian as it takes its turn to the
north and then northeast Thursday. Forecast cone does extend
across the entire scope of the forecast area, so all residents
should be finalizing preparations. Models continue to show
impacts lasting through Friday espcly nrn tier, as a slower
storm progression through the area looks likely, and heaviest
rains fall Thursday night through the day Friday as Dorian moves
through or near E NC.

The local hazards include storm surge, flooding rain, and very
strong winds, all of which are highly track dependent. Based on the
current track, the greatest threat for damaging winds will exist
along coastal areas. Also based on the current track, the
greatest threat for storm surge would exist across the southern
Pamlico Sound shorelines, including the soundside of the
southern OBX, Downeast Carteret Co, and the shores of the Neuse
River. However, it must be stressed that even minor adjustments
in the track could result in significant changes to the threats,
and all residents of eastern North Carolina should be preparing
for hurricane force winds gusts and interests vulnerable to
storm surge should prepare their properties and stay tuned to
subsequent forecasts as surge forecasts are refined in the next
day or two. Always heed the advice of local officials.

Tornadoes are also possible with Dorian, with the right front
quadrant relative to the storm motion being the favored location for
tropical tornado development.

Dorian will accelerate away from the area Fri night with rain
and gusty winds grad ending NE. Cooler air will follow Dorian
with lows Fri night dropping into the 60s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Wed...A flat upper ridge will build in over the
Southeast behind Dorian, as it tracks NE off the New England coast.
A sfc high will build in across the northern Mid-Atlantic over the
weekend, keeping conditions relatively dry with a light N/NE wind.
Another stronger high will build in across the Northeast early next
week, pushing a backdoor cold front into the NC coastal waters by
early Tuesday. This front will bring a return of isolated to
scattered showers and tstms to the area. Temps will be slightly
above normal through the long term. Highs mainly in the mid to upper
80s and lows in the upper 60s inland to mid 70s across the coastal
waters.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term /through Thursday morning/...
As of 755 PM Wednesday...The low level scattered deck remains
persistent along the coast tonight along with very light
showers/drizzle, but has yet to thicken enough to bring MVFR
conditions. Otherwise thickening mid and high level clouds
continue as Dorian migrates up the SE coast. Outer rain bands of
Dorian will being to intrude by Thursday morning with rapidly
deteriorating conditions afternoon into evening as the storm's
core approaches the coast. Expecting MVFR ceilings by Thursday
morning dropping to IFR or worse by the end of the period.
Tropical storm force winds expected to impact all sites by
Thursday evening along with an increasing LLWS threat.

Long Term /Thursday afternoon through Monday/...
As of 145 PM Wednesday...Hurricane Dorian is expected to track
along the Carolina coast Thursday through Friday evening. This
would bring a prolonged period of likely IFR ceilings,
significant visibility reductions in periods of heavy rainfall,
and the potential for significant LLWS along with strong surface
winds. Dorian is expected to move out of the area by Fri
evening with a return to VFR conditions over the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Thu/...
As of 3 PM Wednesday...Deteriorating conditions next 24 hrs as
Hurricane Dorian approaches. ESE winds increase 10 to 20 kts srn
half tonight with winds cont to increase Thu with speeds 10 to
20 kts nrn tier and 40+ kts srn tier late. Seas will build 4 to
6 ft N and 7 to 10 ft S by morning and increase further to 5 to
7 ft N and 12+ ft srn tier late.

Long Term /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 3 PM Wed...While there is still uncertainty with the
track of Dorian, there is high confidence that Dorian will bring
hazardous marine conditions to all of the Eastern NC waters
through the end of the week. Conditions unsafe for any mariners,
including strong winds and exceptionally large dangerous seas,
are likely Thu night and continuing through Friday. Mariners
should continue to monitor the latest forecasts from NHC
concerning Dorian.

Conditions will slowly improve as Dorian departs the region
by Friday night with winds diminishing to 10 to 20 kts. Winds
expected to be below 15 kts over the weekend into Mon. Seas
will remain elevated espcly nrn tier thru the weekend. Seas of
6 to 9 ft nrn tier Sat morn wl subside to 5 to 7 ft late, seas
over far srn tier will drop to 2 to 3 ft Sat. Seas are finally
expected to subside below 6 ft nrn and central wtrs Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 3 PM Wed...Dry antecedent ground conditions in advance of
Hurricane Dorian will allow for additional storage for
excessive rainfall with the storm over the next few days. This
in combination with limited rainfall in the headwaters and a
respectable storm motion will have the effect of limiting the
extent and severity of river flooding. Have not modified
rainfall amounts notably, keeping the focus for the heaviest
rainfall along the southern coastal counties. However, noticed
the ECMWF is suggesting some favorable diffluence coming from
the NW which could expand the rain shield further inland.
Luckily the airmass over central NC will be dry at the onset
with PW around 1.25". Will keep a coastal plains QPF of 4-6", up
to a foot along the southern coast. The focus for any rain
bands could easily produce a swath of 5 to 10 inches away from
the coast, but those details are difficult to resolve this far
out. The rain will move in tomorrow afternoon, with increasing
coverage on Thursday into Thursday Night. The heaviest rain will
fall Thursday Night. For this reason flash flood threat will be
possible for the entire area.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 3 PM Wed...Very rough surf and a high threat of rip
currents are expected thru the end of the week as Hurricane
Dorian approaches and passes near the coast.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Hurricane Warning for NCZ045>047-080-081-092-094-193>196-198-
     199-203>205.
     Beach Hazards Statement through Friday evening for NCZ195-196-
     199-203>205.
     Flash Flood Watch from Thursday morning through Friday
     afternoon for NCZ029-044-079-090>092-198-199.
     Storm Surge Warning for NCZ045>047-080-081-094-194>196-198-199-
     203>205.
     Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ029-044-079-090-091.
     Flash Flood Watch from Thursday morning through Friday evening
     for NCZ045>047-080-081-094-193>196-203>205.
MARINE...Hurricane Warning for AMZ131-135>137-150-152-154-156-158-230-
     231.
&&

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...RF/ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...ARK/MS
MARINE...RF
HYDROLOGY...SAJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 4, 11:22 AM EDT, 9 hours 19 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1122 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019

NCZ029-044-079-090-091-051530-
Martin-Pitt-Greene-Duplin-Lenoir-
1122 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tropical Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tropical Storm Warning.
   Flash Flood Watch.

Hurricane Dorian off the Florida coast is expected to lifting north
along the Southeast coast through late week. Significant impacts to
eastern North Carolina are likely, but the severity will be highly
dependent on the track of Dorian. Based on the current timing of
Dorian the greatest impacts would develop late Thursday and continue
into Friday evening. People are urged to complete preparations and
monitor the National Hurricane Center for updates.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ045>047-080-081-094-194-051530-
Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Beaufort-Mainland Hyde-Pamlico-
Southern Craven-
1122 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019

...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...
...STORM SURGE WARNING IN EFFECT...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Storm Surge Warning.
   Hurricane Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Storm Surge Warning.
   Hurricane Warning.
   Flash Flood Watch.

Hurricane Dorian off the Florida coast is expected to lifting north
along the Southeast coast through late week. Significant impacts to
eastern North Carolina are likely, but the severity will be highly
dependent on the track of Dorian. Based on the current timing of
Dorian the greatest impacts would develop late Thursday and continue
into Friday evening. People are urged to complete preparations and
monitor the National Hurricane Center for updates.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ193-051530-
Northern Craven-
1122 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019

...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Hurricane Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Hurricane Warning.
   Flash Flood Watch.

Hurricane Dorian off the Florida coast is expected to lifting north
along the Southeast coast through late week. Significant impacts to
eastern North Carolina are likely, but the severity will be highly
dependent on the track of Dorian. Based on the current timing of
Dorian the greatest impacts would develop late Thursday and continue
into Friday evening. People are urged to complete preparations and
monitor the National Hurricane Center for updates.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ092-198-051530-
Jones-Inland Onslow-
1122 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019

...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...
...STORM SURGE WARNING IN EFFECT...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Storm Surge Warning.
   Hurricane Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Storm Surge Warning.
   Hurricane Warning.
   Flash Flood Watch.

Hurricane Dorian off the Florida coast is expected to lifting north
along the Southeast coast through late week. Significant impacts to
eastern North Carolina are likely, but the severity will be highly
dependent on the track of Dorian. Based on the current timing of
Dorian the greatest impacts would develop late Thursday and continue
into Friday evening. People are urged to complete preparations and
monitor the National Hurricane Center for updates.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ195-196-203>205-051530-
West Carteret-East Carteret-Northern Outer Banks-Ocracoke Island-
Hatteras Island-
1122 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...
...STORM SURGE WARNING IN EFFECT...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.
   Hurricane Warning.
   Storm Surge Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Hurricane Warning.
   Storm Surge Warning.
   Flash Flood Watch.

Hurricane Dorian off the Florida coast is expected to lifting north
along the Southeast coast through late week. Significant impacts to
eastern North Carolina are likely, but the severity will be highly
dependent on the track of Dorian. Based on the current timing of
Dorian the greatest impacts would develop late Thursday and continue
into Friday evening. People are urged to complete preparations and
monitor the National Hurricane Center for updates.

Swell from Hurricane Dorian will continue into through weekend,
bringing
an increased rip current risk to area beaches.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ199-051530-
Coastal Onslow-
1122 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...
...STORM SURGE WARNING IN EFFECT...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.
   Hurricane Warning.
   Storm Surge Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Hurricane Warning.
   Storm Surge Warning.
   Flash Flood Watch.

Hurricane Dorian off the Florida coast is expected to lifting north
along the Southeast coast through late week. Significant impacts to
eastern North Carolina are likely, but the severity will be highly
dependent on the track of Dorian. Based on the current timing of
Dorian the greatest impacts would develop late Thursday and continue
into Friday evening. People are urged to complete preparations and
monitor the National Hurricane Center for updates.

Swell from Hurricane Dorian will continue into through weekend,
bringing
an increased rip current risk to area beaches.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 5, 7:13 AM EDTTornado WarningMHXOnslow32 min
Sep 5, 7:40 AM EDTTornado WarningMHXOnslow50 min
Sep 5, 8:29 AM EDTTornado WarningMHXDuplin, Onslow46 min
Sep 5, 8:42 AM EDTTornado WarningMHXJones, Onslow48 min
Sep 5, 8:54 AM EDTTornado WarningMHXCarteret, Craven, Jones, Onslow51 min
Sep 5, 9:04 AM EDTSpecial Marine WarningMHX26 min
Sep 5, 9:11 AM EDTTornado WarningMHXOnslow49 min
Sep 5, 9:27 AM EDTTornado WarningMHXDuplin, Jones, Onslow33 min
Sep 5, 9:35 AM EDTTornado Warning Tornado observedMHXJones, Onslow40 min
Sep 5, 9:55 AM EDTTornado WarningMHXDuplin, Onslow50 min
Sep 5, 10:21 AM EDTTornado WarningMHXDuplin, Jones, Lenoir, Onslow39 min
Sep 5, 10:49 AM EDTTornado WarningMHXDuplin, Onslow41 min
Sep 5, 12:27 PM EDTTornado WarningMHXDuplin, Lenoir48 min
Sep 5, 12:28 PM EDTSpecial Marine WarningMHX32 min
Sep 5, 2:28 PM EDTTornado WarningMHXBeaufort, Craven, Greene, Lenoir, Pitt13 min
Sep 5, 2:30 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningMHXDuplin, Onslow5 hr
Sep 5, 2:49 PM EDTSpecial Marine WarningMHX26 min
Sep 5, 4:10 PM EDTTornado WarningMHXCarteret, Craven, Pamlico50 min
Sep 5, 4:18 PM EDTTornado WarningMHXDuplin, Jones, Lenoir, Onslow27 min
Sep 5, 4:54 PM EDTTornado WarningMHXCraven, Jones, Pamlico19 min
Sep 5, 4:56 PM EDTTornado WarningMHXCraven, Jones, Pitt34 min
Sep 5, 5:55 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningMHXCraven, Jones, Lenoir, Pamlico3 hr
Sep 5, 6:17 PM EDTTornado WarningMHXCraven, Lenoir, Pitt28 min
Sep 5, 7:31 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningMHXDuplin, Lenoir11 hr
Sep 5, 7:53 PM EDTTornado WarningMHXBeaufort, Hyde, Martin22 min

Nearby

Beach Hazards Statements in North Carolina, 2019Every beach hazards statement in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.