Alert archive / Oregon / Storm Warnings in 2019
Storm Warning 1, NWS Medford, OR
NWS Medford, OR issued this storm warning at Nov 24, 2019, 2:52 PM PST. It took effect at Nov 26, 2019, 10:00 AM PST. It was in force for 16 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 24, 2019, 2:52 PM PST (22:52 UTC)
- In effect from
- Nov 26, 2019, 10:00 AM PST
- Expired
- Nov 27, 2019, 2:08 AM PST
- In force
- 16 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Medford, OR
The text
As transmitted.
401 WHUS76 KMFR 242252 MWWMFR URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 252 PM PST Sun Nov 24 2019 ...Deep low pressure and storm force winds may impact waters Tuesday... .Latest data is increasingly favoring the idea of deepening lower pressure entering the coastal waters of Southern Oregon on Tuesday. Very dangerous conditions are expected accompany this storm with very steep and dangerous seas along with storm force winds. PZZ350-356-370-376-251200- /O.CON.KMFR.SC.Y.0089.000000T0000Z-191126T1800Z/ /O.UPG.KMFR.SR.A.0001.191126T1800Z-191127T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.SR.W.0001.191126T1800Z-191127T1200Z/ /O.CAN.KMFR.SC.Y.0090.191127T1200Z-191129T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.SE.A.0026.191127T1200Z-191128T0600Z/ Coastal waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR out 10 nm- Coastal waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. St. George CA out 10 nm- Waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR from 10 to 60 nm- Waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. St. George CA from 10 to 60 nm- 252 PM PST Sun Nov 24 2019 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST TUESDAY... ...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM PST WEDNESDAY... ...HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Storm Warning...which is in effect from 10 AM Tuesday to 4 AM PST Wednesday. A Hazardous Seas Watch has also been issued. This Hazardous Seas Watch is in effect from late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening. The Small Craft Advisory has been cancelled. The Storm Watch is no longer in effect. * Winds...North to northwest 10 to 20 kt through Monday night. Winds switch to south Tuesday and could rapidly strengthen to 35 to 45 kt with occasional near hurricane force gusts over 60 kt. Winds switch back to northerly and could be as strong as gale force Tuesday evening. * Seas...Northwest swell dominated and steep 10 to 13 ft with dominant period around 15 seconds through Monday. Seas are expected to quickly become dangerous and very steep Tuesday at 15 to 20 ft, and near 25 ft south of Gold Beach. Seas should subside some Wednesday but will remain steep. * Areas affected...All areas will experience steep seas through Monday. The best chance for storm force winds is from Cape Blanco southward but all areas have the potential for storm force winds on Tuesday. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/hazard PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Storm Warning means winds of 48 to 63 knots along with extremely steep and dangerous seas are imminent or occurring. Recreational boaters should remain in port, or take shelter until winds and waves subside. Commercial vessels should prepare for very strong winds and dangerous sea conditions, and consider remaining in port or taking shelter in port until winds and waves subside. A Small Craft Advisory means that winds and seas will create a potential hazard to smaller vessels and inexperienced mariners. A Hazardous Seas Watch is issued when the risk of very steep and hazardous seas has significantly increased, but the specific timing and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider altering their plans. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/medford
6 follow-up statements
909 WHUS76 KMFR 250524 MWWMFR URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 924 PM PST Sun Nov 24 2019 ...Deep low pressure and storm force winds will impact the waters Tuesday through Tuesday night... .Deepening low pressure will move across the coastal waters of Southern Oregon on Tuesday into Tuesday night. Very dangerous conditions are expected with very high and very steep seas along with storm force winds. PZZ350-356-370-376-251900- /O.CON.KMFR.SC.Y.0089.000000T0000Z-191126T1800Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.SR.W.0001.191126T1800Z-191127T1200Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.SE.A.0026.191127T1200Z-191128T0600Z/ Coastal waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR out 10 nm- Coastal waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. St. George CA out 10 nm- Waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR from 10 to 60 nm- Waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. St. George CA from 10 to 60 nm- 924 PM PST Sun Nov 24 2019 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST TUESDAY... ...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM PST WEDNESDAY... ...HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... * Winds...Northwest 15 to 20 kt into Monday night. Winds switch to southerly Tuesday and rapidly strengthen to 40 to 55 kt with near hurricane force gusts up to 65 kt. Winds switch back to northerly late Tuesday night and begin to decrease but continue at gale force. * Seas...Northwest swell dominated and steep 10 to 13 ft at around 15 seconds into Tuesday morning. Seas are expected to quickly become dangerous and very high and very steep Tuesday at 15 to 20 ft then continue building to 20 to 30 ft on Tuesday night. Seas are likely to subside but remain high and very steep Wednesday into Wednesday night. * Areas affected...All areas will experience high and steep seas into Tuesday morning. Storm force winds and very dangerous conditions are likely across all of the area Tuesday into early Wednesday with the strongest winds and highest seas from Cape Blanco southward. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/hazard PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Storm Warning means winds of 48 to 63 knots along with extremely steep and dangerous seas are imminent or occurring. Recreational boaters should remain in port, or take shelter until winds and waves subside. Commercial vessels should prepare for very strong winds and dangerous sea conditions, and consider remaining in port or taking shelter in port until winds and waves subside. A Small Craft Advisory means that winds and seas will create a potential hazard to smaller vessels and inexperienced mariners. A Hazardous Seas Watch is issued when the risk of very steep and hazardous seas has significantly increased, but the specific timing and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider altering their plans. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/medford
236 WHUS76 KMFR 251017 MWWMFR URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 217 AM PST Mon Nov 25 2019 ...Historically deep low pressure and storm force winds with occasional hurricane force wind gusts will impact the waters Tuesday through Tuesday night... .Deepening low pressure will move across the coastal waters of Southern Oregon Tuesday into Tuesday night. Very dangerous conditions are expected with very high and very steep seas along with storm force winds. Occasional hurricane force wind gusts can be expected over the waters. PZZ350-356-370-376-252330- /O.CON.KMFR.SC.Y.0089.000000T0000Z-191126T1800Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.SR.W.0001.191126T1800Z-191127T1200Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.SE.A.0026.191127T1200Z-191128T0600Z/ Coastal waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR out 10 nm- Coastal waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. St. George CA out 10 nm- Waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR from 10 to 60 nm- Waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. St. George CA from 10 to 60 nm- 217 AM PST Mon Nov 25 2019 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST TUESDAY... ...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM PST WEDNESDAY... ...HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... * Winds...Northwest 15 to 20 kt into Monday night. Winds switch to southerly Tuesday and rapidly strengthen to 40 to 55 kt with occasional hurricane force wind gusts up to 65 kt. Winds switch back to northerly Tuesday night at storm force and begin to decrease late Tuesday night but continue at gale force. * Seas...Northwest swell dominated and steep 10 to 13 ft at around 15 seconds into Tuesday morning. Seas are expected to quickly become dangerous and very high and very steep Tuesday at 15 to 25 ft then continue building to 20 to 35 ft on Tuesday evening and Tuesday night. Seas are likely to subside but remain high and very steep Wednesday into Wednesday night. * Areas affected...All areas will experience high and steep seas into Tuesday morning. Storm force winds with occasional hurricane force wind gusts and very dangerous conditions are likely across all of the area Tuesday into early Wednesday with the strongest winds and highest seas from Cape Blanco southward. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/hazard PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Storm Warning means winds of 48 to 63 knots along with extremely steep and dangerous seas are imminent or occurring. Recreational boaters should remain in port, or take shelter until winds and waves subside. Commercial vessels should prepare for very strong winds and dangerous sea conditions, and consider remaining in port or taking shelter in port until winds and waves subside. A Small Craft Advisory means that winds and seas will create a potential hazard to smaller vessels and inexperienced mariners. A Hazardous Seas Watch is issued when the risk of very steep and hazardous seas has significantly increased, but the specific timing and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider altering their plans. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/medford
590 WHUS76 KMFR 252209 MWWMFR URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 209 PM PST Mon Nov 25 2019 ...Historically deep low pressure and storm force winds with occasional hurricane force wind gusts will impact the waters Tuesday through Tuesday night... .Deepening low pressure will move across the coastal waters of Southern Oregon Tuesday and is expected to come onshore along the southern Curry coast Tuesday evening. Very dangerous conditions are expected with very high and very steep seas along with storm force winds. South winds to storm force are expected ahead of the low Tuesday, switching to north storm force winds behind the low Tuesday evening and night. Occasional hurricane force wind gusts can be expected over the waters. PZZ350-356-370-376-261115- /O.CON.KMFR.SC.Y.0089.000000T0000Z-191126T1800Z/ /O.EXT.KMFR.SR.W.0001.191126T1800Z-191127T1500Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.SE.A.0026.191127T1200Z-191128T0600Z/ Coastal waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR out 10 nm- Coastal waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. St. George CA out 10 nm- Waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR from 10 to 60 nm- Waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. St. George CA from 10 to 60 nm- 209 PM PST Mon Nov 25 2019 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST TUESDAY... ...STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM PST WEDNESDAY... ...HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... * Winds...Northwest 10 to 20 kt into Monday night. Winds switch to southerly Tuesday and rapidly strengthen late Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon to 40 to 55 kt with occasional hurricane force wind gusts up to 65 kt. Winds rapidly switch to storm force northerly winds Tuesday evening and night. Strongest winds are expected south of Coos Bay. The northerly winds will decrease late Tuesday night but continue at gale force. * Seas...Northwest swell-dominated and steep 10 to 13 ft at around 15 seconds into Tuesday morning. Seas are expected to quickly become dangerous and very high and very steep late Tuesday morning and Tuesday afternoon at 15 to 22 ft then continue building to 20 to 35 ft on Tuesday evening and Tuesday night. Highest seas are expected from Cape Blanco southward. Seas are likely to subside but remain high and very steep Wednesday into Wednesday night. * Areas affected...All areas will experience high and steep seas into Tuesday morning. Storm force winds with occasional hurricane force wind gusts and very dangerous conditions are likely across all of the area Tuesday into early Wednesday with the strongest winds and highest seas from Cape Blanco southward. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/hazard PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Storm Warning means winds of 48 to 63 knots along with extremely steep and dangerous seas are imminent or occurring. Recreational boaters should remain in port, or take shelter until winds and waves subside. Commercial vessels should prepare for very strong winds and dangerous sea conditions, and consider remaining in port or taking shelter in port until winds and waves subside. A Small Craft Advisory means that winds and seas will create a potential hazard to smaller vessels and inexperienced mariners. A Hazardous Seas Watch is issued when the risk of very steep and hazardous seas has significantly increased, but the specific timing and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider altering their plans. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/medford
434 WHUS76 KMFR 261013 MWWMFR URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 213 AM PST Tue Nov 26 2019 ...Historically deep low pressure and storm force winds with occasional hurricane force wind gusts will impact the waters Tuesday through Tuesday night... .Deepening low pressure will move across the coastal waters of Southern Oregon Tuesday and is expected to come onshore along the southern Curry coast Tuesday evening. Very dangerous conditions are expected with very high and very steep seas along with storm force winds. South winds to storm force are expected ahead of the low Tuesday, switching to north storm force winds behind the low Tuesday evening and night. Occasional hurricane force wind gusts can be expected over the waters. PZZ350-356-370-376-262315- /O.CON.KMFR.SC.Y.0089.000000T0000Z-191126T1800Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.SR.W.0001.191126T1800Z-191127T1500Z/ /O.UPG.KMFR.SE.A.0026.191127T1200Z-191128T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.SE.W.0053.191127T1200Z-191127T2200Z/ Coastal waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR out 10 nm- Coastal waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. St. George CA out 10 nm- Waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR from 10 to 60 nm- Waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. St. George CA from 10 to 60 nm- 213 AM PST Tue Nov 26 2019 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING... ...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM PST WEDNESDAY... ...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 2 PM PST WEDNESDAY... The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Hazardous Seas Warning...which is in effect from 4 AM to 2 PM PST Wednesday. The Hazardous Seas Watch is no longer in effect. * Winds...Southerly and rapidly strengthening late this morning through this afternoon to 40 to 55 kt with occasional hurricane force wind gusts up to 65 kt. Winds rapidly switch to storm force northerly winds this evening and night. Strongest winds are expected south of Coos Bay. The northerly winds will decrease late Tuesday night but continue at gale force. * Seas...Northwest swell-dominated and steep 10 to 13 ft at around 15 seconds through this morning. Seas are expected to quickly become dangerous and very high and very steep late this morning and afternoon at 15 to 22 ft then continue building to 20 to 35 ft this evening and night. Highest seas are expected from Cape Blanco southward. Seas are likely to subside but remain high and very steep Wednesday into Wednesday night. * Areas affected...All areas will experience high and steep seas into Tuesday morning. Storm force winds with occasional hurricane force wind gusts and very dangerous conditions are likely across all of the area Tuesday into early Wednesday with the strongest winds and highest seas from Cape Blanco southward. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/hazard PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Storm Warning means winds of 48 to 63 knots along with extremely steep and dangerous seas are imminent or occurring. Recreational boaters should remain in port, or take shelter until winds and waves subside. Commercial vessels should prepare for very strong winds and dangerous sea conditions, and consider remaining in port or taking shelter in port until winds and waves subside. A Hazardous Seas Warning means very steep and hazardous sea conditions are imminent or occurring. Recreational boaters should remain in port, or take shelter until waves subside. Commercial vessels should prepare for rough seas and consider remaining in port or taking shelter in port until hazardous seas subside. A Small Craft Advisory means that winds and seas will create a potential hazard to smaller vessels and inexperienced mariners. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/medford
509 WHUS76 KMFR 262349 MWWMFR URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 349 PM PST Tue Nov 26 2019 ...Storm force winds with occasional hurricane force wind gusts will continue through tonight... .Deepening low pressure will continue to move across the coastal waters of Southern Oregon this afternoon and evening and is expected to come onshore along the southern Curry County coast this evening. Very dangerous conditions are expected with very high and very steep seas along with storm force winds. South winds to storm force are expected late this afternoon, switching to north storm force winds behind the low this evening and night. Occasional hurricane force wind gusts are expected through this evening. PZZ350-356-370-376-280000- /O.EXT.KMFR.SR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-191127T1200Z/ /O.EXT.KMFR.SE.W.0053.191127T1200Z-191128T0000Z/ Coastal waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR out 10 nm- Coastal waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. St. George CA out 10 nm- Waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR from 10 to 60 nm- Waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. St. George CA from 10 to 60 nm- 349 PM PST Tue Nov 26 2019 ...STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST WEDNESDAY... ...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY... * Winds...Southerly 40 to 55 kt with occasional hurricane force wind gusts up to 65 kt. Winds will shift to storm force northerly winds this evening and night. The strongest winds are expected south of Coos Bay. The northerly winds will decrease late tonight but continue at gale force. * Seas...Dangerous, very high, and very steep building to 20 to 35 ft this evening and night. Highest seas are expected from Cape Blanco southward. Seas are likely to subside but remain high and very steep Wednesday into Wednesday night. * Areas affected...Storm force winds with occasional hurricane force wind gusts and very dangerous conditions are likely across all of the area into early Wednesday with the strongest winds and highest seas from Cape Blanco southward. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/hazard PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Storm Warning means winds of 48 to 63 knots along with extremely steep and dangerous seas are imminent or occurring. Recreational boaters should remain in port, or take shelter until winds and waves subside. Commercial vessels should prepare for very strong winds and dangerous sea conditions, and consider remaining in port or taking shelter in port until winds and waves subside. A Hazardous Seas Warning means very steep and hazardous sea conditions are imminent or occurring. Recreational boaters should remain in port, or take shelter until waves subside. Commercial vessels should prepare for rough seas and consider remaining in port or taking shelter in port until hazardous seas subside. A Small Craft Advisory means that winds and seas will create a potential hazard to smaller vessels and inexperienced mariners. && $$ BTL http://www.weather.gov/medford
382 WHUS76 KMFR 271008 MWWMFR URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 208 AM PST Wed Nov 27 2019 PZZ350-356-370-376-272315- /O.CAN.KMFR.SR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-191127T1200Z/ /O.EXT.KMFR.SE.W.0053.191127T1008Z-191128T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.SC.Y.0091.191128T0000Z-191128T1500Z/ Coastal waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR out 10 nm- Coastal waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. St. George CA out 10 nm- Waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR from 10 to 60 nm- Waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. St. George CA from 10 to 60 nm- 208 AM PST Wed Nov 27 2019 ...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM PST THURSDAY... The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Small Craft Advisory...which is in effect from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM PST Thursday. The Storm Warning has been cancelled. *Winds...Strong northerly winds at 30 to 35 kt, with gusts to 45 kt through early morning. diminishing to 20 to 25 kt, with gusts to 35 kt by the afternoon into the evening. Strongest winds in outer waters. * Seas...Dangerous, very high, and very steep to 20 to 25 ft this morning. Seas are likely to subside but remain high and very steep this afternoon into the evening at 12 to 15 ft. * Areas affected...All waters are affected, with the most hazardous conditions south of Cape Blanco, and in all outer waters. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/hazard PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Hazardous Seas Warning means very steep and hazardous sea conditions are imminent or occurring. Recreational boaters should remain in port, or take shelter until waves subside. Commercial vessels should prepare for rough seas and consider remaining in port or taking shelter in port until hazardous seas subside. A Small Craft Advisory means that winds and seas will create a potential hazard to smaller vessels and inexperienced mariners. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/medford
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Nov 24, 8:53 AM PST, 5 hours 59 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 24, 8:53 AM PST, 5 hours 59 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
853 AM PST Sun Nov 24 2019
.SHORT TERM...Expect a shift towards active weather early next
week as a strong jet and upper trough moves into the area Monday
followed by a strong low pressure system on Tuesday. Today,
conditions are relatively mild with only a very weak front moving
into the area, bringing some areas of light rain to northwest
portions of the area.
Satellite imagery shows clouds moving into the area from the
north as a weak front approaches. Based on observations and radar
data, some spotty areas of light rain are occurring just north of
the CWA in the Eugene and surrounding areas. Models continue to
show areas of light rain spreading into Coos and northern Douglas
Counties and into portions of the Southern Oregon Cascades today.
However, models have trended lower on precipitation amounts. So
light rain of a few hundreths of an inch is expected and rain may
be spotty in coverage. From the Umpqua Divide south, east of the
Cascades and across Northern California, dry conditions are
expected today.
Of note, this morning, fog remains in the Illinois Valley and in
the lower Rogue Valley from around Rogue River/Grants Pass to
Agness. Fog has been locally dense in some areas early this
morning, such as near Merlin. However, expect fog to gradually
improve during the mid morning, clearing in the late morning or
around noon.
Precipitation chances will increase tonight into Monday as strong
upper level jet moves over the area and an upper level trough
sinks south across the region. The trough will be centered inland
just to the east on Monday and we will be in a moist northwest
flow pattern. Expect light rain/snow to spread across southwest
Oregon tonight into Monday morning with the best chance for
measurable precipitation from the Cascades west and into the
Chemult area. However, a chance to slight chance for light
precipitation will extend into northern California and across areas
east of the Cascades as well. Snow levels are forecast to be
around 3000 to 3500 feet elevation on Monday and light
precipitation will continue through the day Monday and into Monday
night. Snowfall totals of 2 to 6 inches are expected in the
Southern Oregon Cascades Monday through Monday night. So light
snow accumulation are expected to affect the higher passes in the
Southern Oregon Cascades during this period.
For Tuesday, a strong low pressure system takes aim for the
southern Oregon coast. This will low will approach the area
Tuesday morning and afternoon then move inland Tuesday night. With
this low expect significant impacts, including to holiday travel.
Heavy snow is possible above 2500 feet and winter storm watches
are in place. In addition high winds are possible at the coast and
over the coastal waters. Please see the WSWMFR and NPWMFR for
details as well as the discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 24/12Z TAFs...VFR conditions will continue
through this evening, with the exception of IFR fog in the Umpqua
Basin near Roseburg and Rogue Valley near Grants Pass. These IFR
conditions will continue through the morning and improve some to
MVFR and then possibly VFR as a cold front approaches from the west
this afternoon. This front will bring mountain obscuration to areas
along and west of the Cascades late this afternoon. Another front
will bring some valley rain and mountain snow to the area by early
Monday morning. Ceilings will lower to MVFR for areas from the
Cascades west initially and then spread east of the Cascades Monday
afternoon. Keene
&&
.MARINE...Updated 845 AM PST Sunday 24 November 2019...A
front is moving through the waters this morning and is briefly
disrupting the northerly winds, but north winds will redevelop this
afternoon and strengthen some. Strongest winds will be south of Cape
Blanco this evening. Another front Monday will bring moderate north
winds to most areas. Moderate west swells will continue to produce
conditions hazardous to small craft through Monday.
The majority of model guidance now points to a rapidly deepening low
pressure approaching the waters Tuesday. Confidence is increasing
that the coastal waters will be impacted by a period of at least
gale force winds. We have issued a Storm Watch to account for the
growing possibility of storm force winds for at least a portion of
the coastal waters. Right now the best chance for storm force winds
is from Cape Blanco southward, but there still is a risk for storm
force winds north of Cape Blanco, so that area has been included in
the Storm Watch. All mariners should plan now for the potential of
dangerous conditions on Tuesday. Please keep a close eye on updated
forecasts as we get closer to Tuesday. We'll likely be issuing
either a Gale or Storm Warning in the next 24 hours depending on
what future data suggests.
A period of strong north winds follow behind the low early
Wednesday, and then Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely to
return later on Wednesday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 437 AM PST Sun Nov 24 2019/
DISCUSSION...Areas of valley fog have developed once again this
morning, but significant upper level cloudiness has developed as
well, a sign of the approaching weak cold front that will pass
through the region later today. Light rain is expected with the
front today, mainly over the coastal mountains, Umpqua Basin, and
Southern Oregon Cascades. The rest of the forecast area should
remain dry. Showers should decrease in coverage this evening, but
will continue to linger through tonight.
Tonight into Monday, a strong upper level jet will push into the
area as an upper trough deepens inland. With this pattern, models
show light precipitation spreading into much of southwest Oregon
and portions of northern California Sunday night through Monday.
Snow levels are expected to be around 2500 to 3500 feet during
this period, so expect light rain at the coast and across western
valleys with light snow or a rain/snow mix for areas in the
mountains and east of the Cascades. The best chance for
accumulating snowfall will be in the Cascades north of Highway
140, where 2 to 6 inches total snowfall is expected Monday
through Monday night.
The big "Welcome to Winter" event arrives Tuesday. A very deep and
cold upper-level trough, originating from Alaska, will dig south
along the coast, and after joining forces with a rapidly
deepening shortwave approaching form the eastern Pacific, take
station over southern Oregon and northern California by Tuesday
evening. There has been considerable attention paid to the various
model suites and ensemble members over the past several days, and
in the latest runs, the wide range of solutions has narrowed
significantly in regards to the track and strength of the surface
low that will accompany the shortwave into the coastline Tuesday
afternoon and evening. The resulting scenario is one of a rapidly
deepening low, a "bombing cyclone," tracking into the coast
somewhere between Cape Blanco and Cape Mendocino Tuesday evening.
The latest deterministic models are in good agreement, pushing
the low inland right along the Oregon California State line. This
event is therefore very likely to produce significant and wide-
ranging impacts during one of the busiest travel periods of the
year.
The first, but not least, concern will be winds, especially along
the Curry County coast, the higher terrain, and the Shasta and
Rogue Valleys. With a rapidly deepening low along with significant
pressure gradients (on the order of 10 to 15 mb between Redding
and Medford, and well above 15 mb between Eureka and Gold Beach),
damaging winds are possible, and tree and power line damage are
significant concern, especially along the Curry County coast
where wind gusts could top 60 mph. Inland, the winds just above
the surface align very well with the Shasta and Rogue Valleys, and
as a result, areas from Weed to Ashland could see strong gusts.
Meanwhile the mountains and East Side, where snow is likely to be
falling, could see significant drifting and visibility
reductions.
This leads to the primary concern: heavy snow during a period of
much higher than normal travel. A number of factors could make
this a significant snow event. First, pre- existing cold air will
be in place, with a deepening compact surface low tracking just to
the south. Also, the warm front associated with the low is
expected to drape itself just to the south as well, allowing for
significant overrunning over the region. Then we have upslope
flow, a result of the aforementioned gradients and upper level
winds. These pieces of the puzzle should all combine to produce
heavy snow accumulations for a wide area, including Interstate 5
from Dunsmuir to Ashland, many local passes, especially across the
Cascades and Siskiyous. For specific on forecast snow amounts, see
the Winter Storm Watch at PDXWSWMFR.
Now is the time to prepare for the increasing chance for winter
weather. If you plan to travel Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
night, it may be a good idea to reconsider your plans. At the very
least, stock your vehicle's emergency travel kits, check the
vehicle's tires/chains, and know road conditions before you go.
Snow levels of 2500-3000 feet are expected as precipitation
begins in earnest Tuesday, but could drop down to the southern
Oregon valley floors once the surface low passes and the cold air
pours into the region. The bulk of the precipitation should end
before this occurs, but showers will be ongoing, and we can not
rule out the chance for low elevation snow Wednesday morning.
Precipitation should be light enough to prevent snow from
accumulating, but this is not locked in stone. So stay tuned for
the latest updates.
By Wednesday afternoon, most of the energy will be south of the
area, but the upper level trough will remain in place, so showers
are still possible with snow levels expected to be between
1500 and 2000 feet. Given the convective nature of the showers,
and there could be sun breaks, roads should be mainly wet.
However, if a heavier shower moves overhead, it could result in
brief road snow accumulations.
Wednesday night things begin to dry out, but it will be cold. So
the concern turns from road wet or snow covered roads to ice. This
will especially be the case where roads are already wet and in
areas that are sun sheltered.
Looking at Thursday and beyond, current models and ensembles show
a break in the active weather with only isolated showers but cold
conditions Thursday into Friday. This is followed by a robust low
pressure system and front approaching the area Saturday. This
next frontal system may bring precipitation into the area late
Saturday with increased winds possible over the coastal waters and
in the mountains. Snow levels are expected to rise some ahead of
the front on Saturday and be around 2500 to 4000 feet elevation.
-BPN
AVIATION...For the 24/12Z TAFs...VFR conditions will continue
through this evening, with the exception of IFR fog in the Umpqua
Basin near Roseburg and Rogue Valley near Grants Pass. These IFR
conditions will continue through the morning and improve some to
MVFR and then possibly VFR as a cold front approaches from the west
this afternoon. This front will bring mountain obscuration to areas
along and west of the Cascades late this afternoon. Another front
will bring some valley rain and mountain snow to the area by early
Monday morning. Ceilings will lower to MVFR for areas from the
Cascades west initially and then spread east of the Cascades Monday
afternoon. Keene
MARINE...Updated 315 AM PST Sunday 24 November 2019...A
front is moving through the waters this morning and is briefly
disrupting the northerly winds, but north winds will redevelop this
afternoon and strengthen some. Strongest winds will be south of Cape
Blanco this evening. Another front Monday will bring moderate north
winds to most areas. Moderate west swells will continue to produce
conditions hazardous to small craft through Monday.
The majority of model guidance now points to a rapidly deepening low
pressure approaching the waters Tuesday. Confidence is increasing
that the coastal waters will be impacted by a period of at least
gale force winds. We have issued a Storm Watch to account for the
growing possibility of storm force winds for at least a portion of
the coastal waters. Right now the best chance for storm force winds
is from Cape Blanco southward, but there still is a risk for storm
force winds north of Cape Blanco, so that area has been included in
the Storm Watch. All mariners should plan now for the potential of
dangerous conditions on Tuesday. Please keep a close eye on updated
forecasts as we get closer to Tuesday. We'll likely be issuing
either a Gale or Storm Warning in the next 24 hours depending on
what future data suggests.
A period of strong north winds follow behind the low early
Wednesday, and then Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely to
return later on Wednesday. Keene/Wright
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
morning for ORZ029-030.
High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night
for ORZ021-022.
Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
morning above 2500 feet in the for ORZ023>026.
Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
morning for ORZ027-028.
CA...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
morning for CAZ081>083.
Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
morning for CAZ080.
Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
morning for CAZ084-085.
Pacific Coastal Waters...Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for
PZZ350-356-370-376.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Tuesday for
PZZ350-356-370-376.
CC/CC/CCThe office that day
Everything else NWS Medford, OR issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2:25 AM PST | Small Craft Advisory | MFR | 12 hr | |
| Nov 24, 2:25 AM PST | Storm Watch | MFR | 12 hr | |
| Nov 24, 3:03 AM PST | High Wind Watch | MFR | Coos, Curry, Douglas, Jackson | 21 hr |
| Nov 24, 2:37 PM PST | Winter Storm Warning | MFR | Coos, Curry, Douglas, Jackson, Josephine, Klamath and 1 more | 62 hr |
| Nov 24, 2:52 PM PST | Hazardous Seas Watch | MFR | 35 hr | |
| Nov 24, 3:07 PM PST | High Surf Advisory | MFR | Coos, Curry, Douglas | 67 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.