River Flood Warning 8, NWS Medford, OR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
303 PM PDT Sun Apr 7 2019

.SHORT TERM...An atmospheric river (AR) stretches from the PacNW
all the way back to Hawaii. This narrow corridor is only a couple
of hundred miles wide, but is harboring very high precipitable
water (1.0-1.3") and is resulting in periods of moderate to heavy
rainfall across Southwest Oregon and portions of NW California.
24-hour rainfall along the southern Oregon Coast has already been
2 to 5 inches. Expect at least that much in those same areas
tonight into Monday. Model guidance is showing the main corridor
of precipitation wagging back and forth across SW Oregon tonight
into Monday, but with a distinct focus in Curry County and
especially the coast ranges, where 2-day storm total
precipitation may exceed 10 inches. We have had some reports of
rock falls and debris flows along highway 38 between Reedsport and
Elkton and just recently got a report of flooding of Hunter Creek
road coinciding with high tide near Gold Beach. Since we are
expecting another surge in rainfall there, we have issued an
areal flood warning for Curry County that will run through at
least early Monday afternoon. Be on the lookout for additional
flood advisories/warnings as streams, creeks and rivers continue
to swell due to excessive rain and runoff.

Rainfall will also increase across the Rogue Valley tonight and
continue through Monday. We are still forecasting about 1.00-1.50
inches of rain here, so some urban and small stream flooding is
possible in Jackson County through Monday night. An upper trough
offshore will finally give the AR a kick eastward Monday night
with precipitation across the CWA, not ending, but becoming more
showery. Models have been consistently showing some instability
Monday afternoon southeast of the Cascades and then Monday
evening/night west of the Cascades as the upper trough moves
closer to shore. So, there could be a thunderstorm here or there.
The upper trough will move onshore late Monday night and then
through the area Tuesday. Some showers will linger with this
trough, but the heaviest rain associated with the AR will push SE
of the area. Conditions should improve Tuesday night for most
areas with some clearing, especially across northern California.
But it will be chilly where skies do clear. -Spilde

.LONG TERM...Extended discussion, Wednesday through next Sunday.
As over the past several days he GFS and ECMWF operational runs are
in fairly good agreement starting Wednesday. They remain in good
agreement with a front moving down the back side of a ridge that is
well offshore Wednesday night. However, as we head into Thursday the
GFS is showing another front sliding down the back of the building
ridge, while the ECMWF continues to bring down a closed low, and a
much wetter system down into the region Thursday. The EC has been
consistent with this for the past several days and will continue with
this solution. The upper low continues to move to the southeast with
an upper ridge building in behind Friday. This ridge shifts eastward
with the GFS and ECMWF coming into agreement again, with an upper
trough moving in and bringing another front into the region
Saturday. Sven

&&

.AVIATION...For the 07/18 TAFS...Heavy rain will produce mainly IFR
conditions today at the coast, in the mountains, and across areas of
the Umpqua Valley. The heavy rain will become more widespread
tonight into Monday morning with IFR conditions across many areas
with low ceilings and low visibilities.

South to southwest winds will be gusty across inland areas today, so
increased turbulence is expected. 35kt southwest wind gusts are
possible at KLMT this afternoon.
Sandler

&&

.MARINE...Updated 225 PM PDT Sunday, 7 April 2019...At midday,
buoy 27 off Point Saint George had west winds at 25 kts gusting to
between 31 and 35 kts. These winds are not quite gale force but some
areas may see peak winds late this afternoon very close to gale. The
strongest southerly winds will be mainly south of Cape Blanco. The
gale warning will remain in effect into early evening.

Winds and seas will diminish tonight but seas will remain steep and
hazardous so a hazardous seas warning will follow the gale warning
by 6 hours through 09z. After 09z, seas will lower enough for small
craft conditions. A more typical northerly flow will develop Tuesday
and persist into Wednesday. Sandler

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Wind Warning until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for ORZ030-031.
     Flood Watch from 5 PM PDT this afternoon through Monday evening
     for ORZ029>031.
     Wind Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for ORZ030-031.
     Flood Watch through Monday morning for ORZ021>025.
     Flood Watch from 5 PM PDT this afternoon through Monday morning
     for ORZ026.

CA...Flood Watch from 5 PM PDT this afternoon through Monday evening
     for CAZ082-083.
     Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for CAZ080.
     Wind Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for CAZ081.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Gale Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Hazardous Seas Warning from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM PDT Monday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

MAS/SBN/RES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1216 PM PDT SUN APR 7 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NNE LANGLOIS          42.94N 124.45W
04/07/2019  M3.37 INCH       CURRY              OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            THE PAST 12 HOUR AMOUNT WAS 2.90 INCHES. THE
            PAST 24 HOUR AMOUNT WAS 3.37 INCHES.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1220 PM PDT SUN APR 7 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1219 PM     HEAVY RAIN       PORT ORFORD             42.75N 124.49W
04/07/2019  M1.74 INCH       CURRY              OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PAST 24 HOURS ENDING AT NOON.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
105 PM PDT SUN APR 7 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NE BANDON             43.14N 124.37W
04/07/2019  M0.85 INCH       COOS               OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL SINCE 0800 PDT.

&&

MNF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
215 PM PDT SUN APR 7 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0214 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NNE LANGLOIS          42.94N 124.45W
04/07/2019  M3.02 INCH       CURRY              OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL AS OF 2 PM PDT. 24 HOUR TOTAL AS OF
            2 PM PDT IS 3.78 IN.

&&

MNF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
251 PM PDT SUN APR 7 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0251 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNW SITKUM            43.18N 123.87W
04/07/2019  M1.00 INCH       COOS               OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BRUMMETT CREEK HAS COME OUT OF ITS BANKS.

&&

MNF

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