Gale Warning 6, NWS Medford, OR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
853 AM PST Thu Jan 17 2019

.UPDATE...Today's system will wind down through the day, but some
wind, snow, and wave hazards will persist into this evening. While
continuing to monitor the current storm, major forecast efforts
today will focus on the next system set to arrive tomorrow, and
the period of near continuous rain expected to last until Sunday.

The current forecasts appears to be right on track this morning,
so no updates are necessary. For more information and details
regarding the forecast, see the previous discussion below. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...For the 17/12Z TAFs...Numerous to widespread showers
will continue across the area today through this evening as low
pressure offshore sends impulses onshore. Expect a mix of IFR, MVFR,
and VFR ceilings with gusty south to southwest winds and mountain
obscuration. The freezing level will fall to around 4500 ft msl.

Winds will subside and coverage of showers will lessen overnight.
Any clearing will aid in the development of low ceilings and/or fog
in some of the western valleys by Friday morning. This may impact
Roseburg and Medford. -Spilde

&&

.MARINE...Updated 800 AM PST Thursday 17 January 2019...
Extremely dangerous seas, peaking in excess of 30 feet, will be
accompanied by south to southwest gales today. Bar crossings and
the surf zone will be very hazardous due to strong currents and
breaking waves. Winds ease tonight, but seas remain very high with
dangerous bar conditions. Yet another front is likely to bring
additional gales and very steep seas Friday into Friday night with
only slight improvement Saturday. High and steep seas then
persist through the remainder of the weekend with the pattern
remaining active.

Conditions will improve Sunday night into Tuesday as high pressure
builds over the region. -Spilde

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 355 AM PST Thu Jan 17 2019/

DISCUSSION...A potent low pressure continues moving northeast off
the PacNW coast this morning and this will continue to impact the
forecast area, bringing widespread showers, with snow above 4000
feet, and gusty winds through this evening. While it will be a
breezy day today, winds overall will be weaker than what occurred
Wednesday afternoon/evening. The exception will be along the coast
and east of the Cascades. As the low continues northeast, winds
will become more onshore, bringing gusty winds along the coast
through this morning with the strongest winds expected from Cape
Blanco south. East of the Cascades, gusty south to southwest winds
will continue through this morning and gradually diminish this
afternoon. Wind headlines remain in effect for the previously
mentioned areas, and details can be found at NPWMFR.

The main front associated with this low is north and east of the
forecast area, and the area will be under a more convective
influence today. Given the convective environment, a few embedded
thunderstorms are possible in these showers along the coast, and
isolated lightning strikes have already occurred in Siskiyou and
Curry counties during the last few hours. As the flow continues to
turn more southwesterly, this will focus the greatest amount of
precipitation along the coast today. However, the northern
portions of California will continue to see moderate rainfall
today as upslope flow enhances precipitation. Snow levels will
hover around 4000 to 4500 feet today, so periods of moderate to
heavy snow are expected to continue in Siskiyou county through
this afternoon. Winter weather headlines remain in effect for
this, and details can be found at WSWMFR.

While we expect the bulk of the snow to be above 4000 feet
through today, it's possible for snow to mix down temporarily to
lower elevations under heavier precipitation. This could mean some
wintry travel along I-5 near Mt. Shasta City, including Black
Butte Summit where 2 to 3 inches will be possible through this
evening. There may be some rain/snow mix in Mt. Shasta City, but
we aren't expecting much in the way of accumulation there.

Conditions will improve later this evening with showers tapering
off and winds diminishing. We'll catch a short break tonight into
Friday morning as a brief period of riding moves through. A warm
front will nudge into the area Friday afternoon and this will be
the start of a very wet period for the forecast area. Snow levels
will rise significantly with this warm front and by Friday
evening, snow levels will jump to around 7000 to 8000 feet. The
front will stall over the area, bringing an extended period of
moderate to heavy rain, especially along the coast and western
portions of Siskiyou county. If current model total rainfall
projections are correct, flooding could be a concern during this
time period.

In addition to rainfall, another round of strong winds is possible
Friday afternoon. Gradients are favorable again for strong winds
along the coast and in the Shasta and Rogue Valleys. However,
unlike the previous system, wind alignment is less favorable for
the Rogue Valley, so wind concerns will be for the more typical
places. 700 mb winds of 50 to 60 kt lends to concerns for strong
winds east of the Cascades as well. Given the current headlines,
will let future shifts issue any necessary watches/advisories for
this time frame. /BR-y

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ029>031.
     High Wind Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ021-022.
     High Surf Warning until 5 AM PST Friday for ORZ021-022.

CA...Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ084-085.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for
     CAZ080-081-083.
     Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST this evening above 5500
     feet in the for CAZ082.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Gale Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Gale Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Hazardous Seas Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM PST
     Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
838 AM PST THU JAN 17 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0836 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SSE PISTOL RIVER      42.26N 124.39W
01/17/2019  M1.42 INCH       CURRY              OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR ACCUMULATION.

&&

CZS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
839 AM PST THU JAN 17 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0838 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6 SE SELMA              42.23N 123.52W
01/17/2019  M1.67 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR ACCUMULATION.

&&

CZS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1009 AM PST THU JAN 17 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 NNE SELMA             42.35N 123.57W
01/17/2019  M1.65 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR RAINFALL 08030-0830. LOCATION IS
            HAYES HILL AREA.

&&

BTL