Frost Advisory 13, NWS Medford, OR

809 
WWUS76 KMFR 031456
NPWMFR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
756 AM PDT Fri May 3 2019

ORZ024-031600-
/O.EXP.KMFR.FZ.W.0011.000000T0000Z-190503T1500Z/
/O.EXP.KMFR.FR.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-190503T1500Z/
Eastern Curry County and Josephine County-
Including the city of Cave Junction
756 AM PDT Fri May 3 2019

...FREEZE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING...
...FROST ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Medford has cancelled the Frost
Advisory and Freeze Warning. 

Temperatures are rising into the upper 30s and lower 40s with 
frost and freezing conditions no longer a risk this morning. 


$$

ORZ026-031600-
/O.EXP.KMFR.FR.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-190503T1500Z/
Jackson County-
756 AM PDT Fri May 3 2019

...FROST ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Medford has cancelled the Frost
Advisory. 

Temperatures are rising into the upper 30s and lower 40s with 
frost no longer a risk this morning. 

$$
Sandler

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1055 PDT Thu May 2 2019

The Marine and Aviation sections have been updated...

.AVIATION...For the 02/18Z TAFS...VFR conditions are expected to
continue through the TAF period, with breezy winds this afternoon
through early this evening. Increasing north and northeast winds
along and near the coast are expected to prevent low clouds and fog
along and near the coast tonight through Friday morning. BTL

&&

.MARINE...Updated 900 AM PDT Thursday, 2 May 2019...
The thermal trough will strengthen again this afternoon through
Friday with winds and seas increasing. The strongest winds and
steepest seas will be south of Cape Blanco. Conditions may improve
slightly Saturday into Saturday night. Low pressure is then expected
to move into north-central California by Sunday with gusty north
winds continuing across the southwestern Oregon coastal waters area
south to Point Saint George on Sunday. BTL/Smith

&&

.DISCUSSION...Updated the forecast to cancel the frost/freeze
headlines for this morning. Temperatures are rising into the upper
30s and lower 40s and frost/freezing conditions are no longer a
risk. Also, we modified the sky grids to reflect current
conditions, especially with respect to some low cloud cover along
the coast and in the Umpqua Valley. The rest of the forecast is
on track. It'll be mainly sunny today with the low clouds
dissipating west of the Cascades. There may be some high cirrus at
times as well, mainly east of the Cascades. Persistence has been
a good forecast (at least for the west side valleys) for nearly
the past week. We've had 6 consecutive days with high temperatures
ranging from 69 to 75 degrees here in Medford. Today will be no
different with a forecast high of 74. Tonight won't be as cold as
previous nights, but there still may be some frost in the colder
valleys west of the Cascades. See previous discussion below for
more details on the expected warm up late this week into the
weekend and also just where the closed low will wobble onshore
into California later in the weekend/early next week. -Spilde

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 219 AM PDT Thu May 2 2019/

DISCUSSION...The weather in the short term will remain benign as
dry, northwest, upper level flow remains in control. This pattern
will hold through Friday and aside from the late night and
morning stratus intrusions along the Coos coast, result in mostly
clear conditions area-wide. With the clear skies, expect areas of
frost and freezing temperatures in some of the West Side valleys,
especially south of the Umpqua Divide. A freeze warning remains in
effect for portions of the Illinois Valley with frost advisories
in most other west side valleys. See NPWMFR for details.

Temperatures will begin a warming trend tomorrow with highs a few
degrees above normal, then Friday and Saturday will be quite warm
with highs 10 to 15 degrees above normal. On Saturday, an upper
trough will approach from the south and west, but it is expected
to go into central California. We may see some high cloud from it
on Saturday, but that's about it.

Come Sunday, a low pressure system will cross into Central
California. Although this low has been predicted for days, the
models have largely been unsure as to where this low would cross.
Now, models are in better agreement in a slightly southward track
of the low. This will keep the majority of the precipitation to
the south of Siskiyou and Modoc Counties, and have lowered the
rain chances to reflect that solution in the ensemble guidance,
but it won't be completely out of the realm of possibility for a
shower or thunderstorm to develop Sunday afternoon.

The low will continue to persist over south and Central California
allowing for the wrap around moisture to filter into southern
areas of Siskiyou and Modoc counties. Expect the best chances of
showers and maybe a thunderstorm on Monday for northern California
(southern Oregon will remain largely dry.). Precipitation,
however, would be rather light.

Then, an area of high pressure will nudge into our area from the
west, and dry conditions will return. Temperatures may be a bit
cooler east of the cascades on Tuesday, but most other areas will
continue their gradual warming trend. -Schaaf

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PDT Sunday
     for PZZ356-376.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM PDT Sunday
     for PZZ350-370.

MAS/BTL