Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
335 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2019

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...

This Afternoon through Friday Night...

Latest TAFB surface analysis has the much anticipated cold front
smack dab in the southern half of the CWA with visible satellite
imagery showing a swathe of stratus clouds along the boundary. MFL's
10/12Z sounding has a lower PW (1.99 inches) compared to the last
several days, though plenty of residual moisture will keep the
chance for scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms
in the forecast for this afternoon.

With nearly negligible 0-3 km storm relative helicity values today
and a pretty lackluster shear environment, brief rotation does not
look as likely this afternoon. The main hazards will be potential
flooding, heavy rainfall, and lightning. Since portions of the
region are already saturated from previous days rainfall along with
rather weak steering flow, showers/storms will have the tendency to
move at a slow pace with high rainfall rates. The wind threat is not
as prevalent this afternoon due to relatively weakened flow aloft
and a weak background wind, though wouldn't be surprised to see a
stronger wind gust over the waters.

Behind the frontal boundary high pressure will begin to steadily
build in from the north, increasing northeast winds in the process.
Furthermore, drier air will creep into the region, with model
derived PW values ranging from 1 to 1.5 inches. With this in mind,a
few showers will still be possible Friday as the lower PW's filter
in from N to S, so higher moisture values (combined with daytime
heating) will focus PoPs near 30 percent. Additionally, a tightening
of the pressure gradient will act to increase prevailing wind
speeds, resulting in building seas of 7 to 10 feet, along with an
increasing northeasterly swell over the northern Atlantic. This
could spark hazardous conditions for mariners, along with a High
Surf Advisory late Friday for the Palm Beach coastline and possibly
extending into Broward County. More in the MARINE section below...

EXTENDED (Saturday through Wednesday)...

An area of high pressure will continue to dominate the weather
pattern across South Florida through the weekend and into the
early portion of next week. An east northeasterly wind flow will
set up across the region during this time frame. Shower chances
will remain low, however, they cannot be ruled out especially
across the Atlantic waters as well as southern portions of the
peninsula. Low temperatures will range from the mid 60s across the
northwestern interior sections to the mid 70s across the east
coast. High temperatures will range from the mid 80s across the
east coast to around 90 across the interior sections.

By the middle of next week, both of the GFS and the ECMWF continue
to show another frontal boundary approaching the region from the
northwest. The models, however, are still differing in the timing
of this feature along with the amount of moisture that will move
into the area out ahead of the front. The GFS continues to move
this feature through faster and brings in more moisture by Tuesday
while the ECMWF continues to move it through slower and brings in
the moisture later in the week. The current forecast shows a blend
of the possible solutions with increasing chances of showers and
thunderstorms returning to the region on Tuesday. This will
continue to be monitored as the weekend progresses.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will steadily become northeasterly throughout the afternoon
as a frontal boundary pushes across the region. A chance of
showers and thunderstorms will exist throughout the remainder of
the afternoon, with locally higher winds and waves in and around
any given storm. High pressure returns across all local waters on
Friday through early next week; however, wind speeds look to
increase to cautionary levels over the Atlantic and Gulf Stream
waters. Additionally, seas building between 7 to 10 feet off Palm
Beach and into Broward County could result in a Small Craft
Advisory late tomorrow.

&&

.AVIATION...
NE winds across the region this afternoon with a more NNW wind
across KMIA, KOPF, KTMB. Thus, TS potential will be highest over
KAPF this afternoon, so handled with VCTS. For east coast
terminals, confidence too low on coverage/timing to include
convection, so handled with VCSH for the time being. MVFR to IFR
cigs/vis possible with any passing shower. Short- fused AMDs may
be necessary. Dry conditions expected overnight and tomorrow with
increasing NE flow Friday afternoon.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
An elevated risk of rip currents will continue for Palm Beach
County this afternoon. As an area of high pressure builds back
into the area tomorrow into the weekend, seas across the Atlantic
waters will build and winds will increase as well. This could
result in a High Surf Advisory for the Palm Beach County coastline
and possibly extending into Broward County late on Friday. This
will continue to be monitored as tonight progresses.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  75  84  74  84 /  40  30  20  10
Fort Lauderdale  77  84  76  83 /  40  30  30  10
Miami            76  86  75  85 /  40  30  30  10
Naples           72  89  71  88 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...03/Fell
EXTENDED...55/CWC
MARINE...03/Fell
AVIATION...03/Fell
BEACH FORECAST...55/CWC

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
324 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2019

FLZ071-072-102015-
Inland Broward County FL-Metro Broward County FL-
324 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BROWARD COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM
EDT...

* At 324 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Sawgrass Mills Mall, or over
  Sunrise, moving south at 30 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Pembroke Pines, Hollywood, Coral Springs, Davie, Plantation,
  Sunrise, Tamarac, Margate, Lauderhill, Weston, North Lauderdale,
  Lauderdale Lakes, Cooper City, Broadview-Pompano Park, Royal Palm
  Ranches, Sunshine Acres, Pine Island Ridge, Village Park, Broadview
  Park and Sawgrass Mills Mall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2628 8040 2628 8028 2625 8020 2602 8021
      2606 8049
TIME...MOT...LOC 1924Z 009DEG 25KT 2618 8032

SPM

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