Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
255 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Sunday...

Deep layer southeasterly flow will prevail as south Florida is
sandwiched between mid-level ridging over the western Atlantic and
and low pressure over the southern Mississippi valley. At the
surface, a low pressure trough now located over the Bahamas will
slowly progress through our area, bringing an increase in deep layer
moisture along with it. Forecast precipitable water values during
this time remain on the high side, at around 20 to 30 percent above
average as previously mentioned. Scattered to numerous showers with
embedded thunderstorms are anticipated, with an enhancement to the
typical diurnal cycle. The greatest hazard during this period
remains the threat for localized flooding if repeated rounds of
rainfall affect the same areas. Forecast rain amounts are in the 1
to 1.75 inch range, with a reasonable worst case scenario (the 90th
percentile) of around 2 to 3.5 inches. The highest totals are
expected towards the interior and Gulf coast, although localized
heavier amounts are always possible in heavier showers or storms
regardless of location. Given the widespread cloud cover and
showers, high temperatures should cool into the mid 80s to around 90.

Monday through Thursday...

Mid to upper ridging will become increasingly prominent from the
eastern Gulf of Mexico into the Southeast CONUS. Low to mid-level
moisture should remain in place, allowing for sea breeze driven
convection to continue. However expect less widespread storm
coverage and warming temperatures given the ridging in place.

&&

.MARINE...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue today, becoming
numerous over the weekend. East to southeast winds will increase as
well, and small craft may need to exercise caution late today
through saturday across Atlantic and offshore waters as surface
winds increase. Seas should remain at 3 feet or less.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms across the region with afternoon
convection over the interior and west coast along sea breezes. A
surge of moisture over the Bahamas is moving towards South Florida.
This area will allow showers to develop over the Atlantic and
move over east coast within vicinity of terminals. Will continue
to monitor trends to deal with VCTS or TSRA in amendments.
Unsettled weather continues throughout the period with easterly
flow except for the breeze at KAPF.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

Showers and storms should become more numerous this weekend. E to SE
winds may increase the rip current risk for the Atlantic beaches
particularly on Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  79  84  77  89 /  50  70  60  50
Fort Lauderdale  80  85  78  89 /  60  70  50  50
Miami            79  85  78  89 /  60  70  50  50
Naples           76  86  74  89 /  60  70  50  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...34/SPM
MARINE...34/SPM
AVIATION...33/Kelly
BEACH FORECAST...34/SPM

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
1009 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2019

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
290215-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
1009 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2019

...Thunderstorms Possible Across South Florida Today...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms: Thunderstorms will be possible today across South
Florida. Lightning, small hail, and isolated damaging wind gusts are
the primary hazards.

Waterspouts: There is a slight chance of waterspouts across all South
Florida waters today.

Wind: There is a slight chance of damaging wind gusts, mainly in the
interior and along the Gulf coast this afternoon. Wind gusts of
around 50 mph are possible today.

Hail: Small hail is possible today with any thunderstorms across
South Florida.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Thunderstorm chances will continue with coverage increasing this
weekend. The primary hazards are lightning, gusty wind, and
localized street flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual
spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail and flooding to
the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
353 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 SSE MIAMI BEACH       25.75N 80.10W
06/28/2019  M45 MPH          AMZ651             FL   MESONET

            MESONET STATION XGVT GOVERNMENT CUT.

&&

SPM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
353 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2019

FLZ070-073-075-282045-
Inland Collier County FL-Mainland Monroe FL-Inland Miami-
Dade County FL-
353 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MAINLAND MONROE AND
CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

* At 353 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Shark Valley Obs Tower, or 15
  miles northwest of Homestead General Airport, moving west at 20
  mph.

* Small hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Shark Valley Obs Tower, Loop Road Ee Center and Fortymile Bend.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2575 8064 2554 8061 2545 8104 2584 8102
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 075DEG 16KT 2565 8073

BAXTER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
414 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2019

FLZ067-071>074-168-172-173-282100-
Inland Broward County FL-Coastal Broward County FL-
Coastal Palm Beach County FL-Metro Broward County FL-
Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Inland Palm Beach County FL-Inland Miami-
Dade County FL-Coastal Miami Dade County FL-
414 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD
COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

* At 413 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from Coconut
  Creek to 8 miles west of Intersection Krome And Kendall Drive.
  Movement was west northwest at 20 mph.

* Small hail, funnel clouds, and winds in excess of 45 mph possible
  with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Miami, Hialeah, Fort Lauderdale, Pembroke Pines, Hollywood,
  Miramar, Coral Springs, Pompano Beach, Davie, Plantation, Sunrise,
  Deerfield Beach, Tamarac, Margate, Coral Gables, South Miami,
  Lighthouse Point, Lauderdale-By-The-Sea, Miami Gardens and Kendall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2627 8003 2557 8037 2579 8087 2633 8087
      2634 8064
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 115DEG 16KT 2627 8017 2567 8062

BAXTER