Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
154 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

.AVIATION...Atlc seabreeze has pushed in a little more than
expected, which should keep much of the afternoon SHRA/TSRA
development just inland of the east coast terminals despite NE
movement. Current trends suggest keeping VCTS in KPBI & KFXE, but
other sites may escape impacts. Gulf breeze has already pushed
inland of KAPF, so don't expect any TS/SH. Winds diminish after
sunset, with generally dry conditions overnight and into Thurs
morn.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1119 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019/

UPDATE...A few subtle features in place today that will drive
the weather as we head into the afternoon. Satellite imagery
shows a broad low level convergent area stretching from the
eastern Gulf across Central Florida and into the Atlantic on the
north side of the ridge.

A weak vort max that rotated through this morning kicked off a
thunderstorm complex along this boundary across west Central
Florida earlier this morning. Given a favorable environment, the
well-defined outflow from this has continued to kick off new
storms as it propagates south and east, now currently moving
through Palm Beach County.

While this boundary is losing some steam as it goes along, expect
it to continue to generate new showers and storms as it's western
end moves into Hendry/Collier/Broward counties. There's enough
clearing behind this line that additional activity is expected
behind it later this afternoon. In addition to this line, we
will see activity popping up along a diffuse east coast seabreeze
as we go into midday. Given the west southwest steering flow, most
activity will be focused towards Palm Beach and Broward as we go
into the afternoon. Heavy rain and lightning will be the main
concerns, though some gusty winds can't be ruled out.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 236 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019/

DISCUSSION...

Today and Tonight...

A low amplitude shortwave trough will depart to our east, with a few
remnant perturbations riding the weak (~20 kt) westerly 500 mb flow
across central Florida. A gradual decrease in mid-level tropospheric
moisture is expected as the shortwave departs, however low-level
moisture will remain in place. Surface to 850 mb ridging will be the
primary feature in the lower levels, with light SSW steering flow.
Given the light wind regime both Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes are
anticipated today. These will be drivers for thunderstorm
development, with rain chances gradually spreading inland from the
coastal areas from late morning into early afternoon. Following
afternoon sea breeze collisions, the steering flow should direct
late day thunderstorms towards the north and northeast portions of
our area, including Broward and Palm Beach Counties. There is a
robust signal for localized heavy rainfall (to ~2"+) in this area,
but placement differs among the global and mesoscale guidance. The
mesoscale models favor more inland portions of these counties, while
the global guidance paints the heavier QPF more towards the east
coast metro areas. Given this uncertainty, will split the
difference with advertised QPF. Heavy rainfall and localized minor
flooding remain a possibility today, especially for western
portions of the Broward/Palm Beach urban corridor. Given cool
temperatures aloft (-7 to -8 degrees Celsius at 500 hPa) with the
passing wave, a few stronger storms producing gusty winds are
possible today as well. A warming trend in temperatures should
begin today, with highs climbing into the lower 90s away from the
east coast where the Atlantic sea breeze will have a moderating
effect.

Thursday through Saturday...

A slowly retrograding and zonally elongated mid-level ridge will
prevail from the Caribbean Sea into eastern Gulf of Mexico. This
will support decently strong low-level ridging during the early
portion of this period, with surface high pressure getting pinched
off over the western Gulf of Mexico by Saturday in response to
troughing pushing from the eastern Seaboard into the western North
Atlantic ocean. With large scale subsidence shower/thunderstorm
coverage should be more limited during this period with sea
breeze driven diurnal cycles. Rising thicknesses are supportive of
warm temperatures through much of this period, with highs mostly
in the 90s. Maximum Heat Index values could eclipse 105 degrees
for some areas during this time.

Sunday through Tuesday...

The mid-level ridge will deamplify in response to shortwave
perturbations crossing from the eastern CONUS into the western
Atlantic. This will lower thicknesses somewhat as an easterly low-
level wind component becomes established. High temperatures will
likely cool a few degrees for eastern areas as a result. South
Florida will be located along the eastern periphery of the
anticyclonic flow around the mid-level ridge, leaving us exposed to
southward dropping perturbations around the ridge margins. This
may increase our shower/storm chances somewhat, although mid-level
moisture doesn't appear overly impressive at this time.

MARINE...

Scattered showers and storms are expected today, with gradually
decreasing coverage later this week into the weekend. While some of
the storms may produce locally gusty winds and heavy rain, winds
outside of this activity should be on the order of 5-10 knots. Wave
heights are expected to generally be 1-2 feet.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  76  91  76  91 /  30  20  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  79  90  79  90 /  20  20  10  10
Miami            79  90  79  91 /  10  20  10  10
Naples           78  90  78  90 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

AVIATION...88/ALM

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
1159 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
200400-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
1159 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

...Scattered Thunderstorms This Afternoon...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms: Thunderstorms are expected across South Florida today
with the greatest coverage across Palm Beach and Broward counties
through this afternoon. Lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy
rainfall are the primary threats.

Waterspouts: Isolated waterspouts are possible across Lake
Okeechobee and the Atlantic waters.

Wind: The strongest storms may produce wind gusts in excess of 45
mph along the east coast and adjacent Atlantic waters.

Temperatures: Heat index values near 100 are expected across much of
South Florida through the afternoon, with maximum values in the
103-106 degree range across Southwest Florida.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Thunderstorms are forecast each day through the end of the week
across South Florida, especially during the afternoon hours.
Lightning, along with localized flooding of roadways in low lying
and poor drainage areas, will be the primary hazards. There is also
the potential for strong wind gusts.

A warming trend through the week could bring heat index values of
105 to 107 across portions of South Florida by late in the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Individual spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail and
flooding to the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
210 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

FLZ067-068-168-191900-
Coastal Palm Beach County FL-Inland Palm Beach County FL-
Metro Palm Beach County FL-
210 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY
UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

* At 209 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Greenacres, or near Wellington,
  moving northeast at 5 mph.

* Small hail and winds in excess of 45 mph possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  West Palm Beach, Boynton Beach, Wellington, Palm Beach Gardens,
  Lake Worth, Riviera Beach, Palm Beach, Greenacres, Royal Palm
  Beach, Palm Springs, North Palm Beach, Lantana, Lake Park,
  Atlantis, Haverhill, Cloud Lake, Palm Beach International Airport,
  Port Of Palm Beach, Golden Lakes and Gun Club Estates.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2649 8019 2664 8031 2668 8032 2683 8006
      2659 8003
TIME...MOT...LOC 1809Z 233DEG 6KT 2661 8019

AR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
223 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

FLZ066-067-191915-
Hendry FL-Inland Palm Beach County FL-
223 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL HENDRY AND WESTERN
PALM BEACH COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

* At 223 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Okeelanta, or near South Bay,
  moving east at 15 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and funnel clouds possible with this
  storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Belle Glade, Pahokee, South Bay, Lake Harbor, Okeelanta, Holey Land
  Wildlife Refuge, Rotenberger Wildlife Refuge, Belle Glade Camp,
  Fremd Village-Padgett Island and Loxahatchee NWR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2635 8090 2672 8090 2671 8072 2681 8069
      2691 8042 2648 8039
TIME...MOT...LOC 1823Z 256DEG 14KT 2657 8072

AR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
249 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

FLZ067-068-072-168-172-191930-
Coastal Broward County FL-Coastal Palm Beach County FL-
Metro Broward County FL-Inland Palm Beach County FL-
Metro Palm Beach County FL-
249 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY
UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

* At 249 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Whisper Walk, or 9 miles west
  of Highland Beach, moving north at 20 mph.

* Small hail, funnel clouds, and winds in excess of 45 mph possible
  with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  West Palm Beach, Boca Raton, Deerfield Beach, Boynton Beach, Delray
  Beach, Wellington, Lake Worth, Riviera Beach, Palm Beach, Ocean
  Ridge, Coconut Creek, Greenacres, Royal Palm Beach, Parkland, Palm
  Springs, Lantana, Atlantis, Haverhill, Cloud Lake and Mission Bay.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2632 8026 2649 8031 2671 8026 2677 8004
      2653 8004 2631 8011
TIME...MOT...LOC 1849Z 188DEG 17KT 2644 8021

AR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
313 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

FLZ067-071-192000-
Inland Broward County FL-Inland Palm Beach County FL-
313 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY UNTIL
400 PM EDT...

* At 313 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 10 miles
  north of Lion Country Safari Park to 13 miles southwest of
  Loxahatchee NWR. Movement was east at 20 mph.

* Small hail, funnel clouds, and winds in excess of 45 mph possible
  with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Wellington, Palm Beach Gardens, Loxahatchee Groves, Lion Country
  Safari Park, The Acreage, Loxahatchee NWR and Caloosa.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms. If
you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck! Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2693 8024 2671 8026 2648 8031 2637 8030
      2633 8065 2686 8056
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 259DEG 15KT 2685 8040 2642 8044

AR