Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
344 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019

.DISCUSSION...
A Col-like pattern over South Florida the last few days has
allowed for mesoscale dynamics to drive convective initiation.
Early this afternoon, scattered showers area developed along the
east coast sea breeze boundary. As these storms have cycled
through, a battle of the boundaries has ensued on radar, with
outflow from previous storms pushing outward and colliding with
their neighbors. Thus, as the Gulf sea breeze attempts to become
better established, and the current boundaries migrate across the
interior, much of the coverage should slowly shift towards the
west the rest of the afternoon and early evening. Much of this
activity should dissipate after sundown with loss of ample diurnal
heating.

The stationary boundary noted in the 15Z WPC surface analysis,
shows a subtle cyclonic kink embedded within it, and is currently
draped across northern Florida. Behind the boundary, high pressure
is beginning to slide eastward over the Atlantic and is expected
to strengthen along it's southern periphery. This will help to
bring prevailing E-SE flow to our area through the latter portion
of the week. Model soundings indicate enhanced moisture will
remain in place with PWAT values around 1.8 to 2.0 inches. These
values, which are near the 75% and 90% moving averages for this
time of year, translate into the development of afternoon showers
and thunderstorms each day. Coverage should be focused along the
interior and west coast, and along sea breeze boundaries. Daytime
temperatures are expected to remain fairly warm for this time of
year, but moderate back down a few degrees with the more easterly
component.

An upper level trough, which is subtly noted in water vapor
imagery over the western US, is expected to traverse eastward
through the period. The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement of a
developing surface low over the SE CONUS in response to this
feature aloft through the weekend and early next week. However,
the GFS seems to be a bit slower and more robust than the ECMWF
with the current run. Both models hint at the approach and
possible passage of a frontal boundary beyond the current
forecast period. Whether this comes to fruition, areal coverage
of rain chances increase during this time as winds veer more
southerly and moisture deepens.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside of scattered showers or thunderstorms, generally favorable
boating conditions are expected to remain through the forecast
period. Winds are expected to become more E-SE as high pressure
rebuilds over the western Atlantic. Seas will remain at 3 feet or
less in the Atlantic and 2 feet or less in the Gulf waters.

&&

.AVIATION...
Localized MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible along east coast
terminals this afternoon as convection develops across the region
and gradually pushes inland. Meso-models keep most convection to
the south, so handled with VCTS for KFXE/KFLL/KPBI, with a TEMPO
for 18-20Z for TSRA at KPBI due to ongoing convection. Tempo
groups for TSRA around 20-23Z for KOPF/KMIA/KTMB before pushing
more inland and away from TAF sites. Otherwise VFR conditions are
expected during the TAF period before sea breeze is expected again
tomorrow afternoon/evening. Winds weaken to under 5 kt overnight
before increasing again tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  76  89  76  89 /  20  30  10  30
Fort Lauderdale  79  89  79  88 /  20  30  20  20
Miami            78  89  78  89 /  30  40  20  30
Naples           75  93  74  91 /  20  40  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...11/HVN
MARINE...11/HVN
AVIATION...03/Fell

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
1016 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
050230-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
1016 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY INTERIOR...
...HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW TO MID 100S TODAY...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms will develop along the east
and west coast sea breezes later this afternoon. The greatest
coverage of thunderstorms will focus over the interior and west coast
areas. The primary impacts from the thunderstorms will be lightning
strikes, locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and perhaps some small
hail.

Temperatures: Heat index readings will be in the lower to mid 100s
over most of South Florida today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Maximum afternoon heat index readings in the lower to mid 100s will
continue over most of South Florida through end of the week.

Isolated to scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms will
continue for the rest of the week and into the upcoming weekend with
the best coverage over the interior areas. Lightning strikes will be
the primary hazard.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual
spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail and flooding to
the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

FELL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
356 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019

FLZ071>074-042100-
Inland Broward County FL-Metro Broward County FL-
Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Inland Miami-Dade County FL-
356 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE AND
SOUTH CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

* At 356 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
  near East Toll Gate On Alligator Alley, or 10 miles west of
  Pembroke Pines, moving south at 5 mph.

* Small hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Hialeah, Pembroke Pines, Miramar, Weston, Miami Lakes, Hialeah
  Gardens, Intersection Krome And U.S. 27, Palm Springs North,
  Pennsuco and Country Club.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2613 8059 2614 8041 2589 8029 2588 8069
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 355DEG 6KT 2606 8050

MM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
404 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019

FLZ066-067-042045-
Hendry FL-Inland Palm Beach County FL-
404 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN HENDRY AND SOUTHWESTERN
PALM BEACH COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

* At 403 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
  near Montura, moving south at 5 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Montura and Rotenberger Wildlife Refuge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2666 8109 2668 8090 2640 8075 2636 8118
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 355DEG 6KT 2660 8100

MM