Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS Miami, FL

337 
WWUS52 KMFL 200442
SVSMFL

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
1242 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019

FLC011-051-099-200452-
/O.EXP.KMFL.SV.W.0047.000000T0000Z-191020T0445Z/
Hendry FL-Broward FL-Palm Beach FL-
1242 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN HENDRY...NORTHERN
BROWARD AND SOUTHWESTERN PALM BEACH COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1245 AM
EDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 2629 8091 2635 8094 2661 8062 2639 8049
TIME...MOT...LOC 0442Z 240DEG 19KT 2649 8058 

$$

SPM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
809 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

.UPDATE...

The center of post-tropical Cyclone Nestor was located across
southern Georgia this evening. Robust warm air advection ahead of
this system extended from the Carolinas through the western
Bahamas, with a residual low-level moisture feed extending across
south Florida on southwesterly winds. This is evident via
Satellite derived precipitable water values of 1.9 to 2.3 inches.
While the better thermal advection has departed to our east, the
latest RAP analysis suggests several small pockets of modest
850-700 mb warm advection are yet to rotate through our area
tonight. There is enough turning in the low-level wind field to
support rotating storms this evening, with a few of these storms
approaching severe limits at times. These storms were mainly
confined to northern portions of our area, where model analyses
suggest effective storm relative helicity values of around 200 and
effective shear on the order of 30 kt. While these values are
forecast to decrease with time, there remains a low-end concern
that a few storms overnight may still achieve strong or possibly
low-end severe status. The genesis region for these storms as
depicted by the latest high resolution model guidance is along the
Gulf coast along and ahead of the moisture gradient in
association with a pre-frontal trough. The storms would then
advance E/NE-ward into our area overnight. There remains some
question as to the coverage and intensity of the storms, but the
primary severe hazards (if realized) would be an isolated damaging
wind gust and/or brief tornado. This threat should be ending by
the early morning hours with quieter weather expected on Sunday.
Warm and muggy conditions will continue with temperatures
approaching record warm minimum and maximum values.

&&

.AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

Prevailing VFR through the TAF period. Small shower chances into
Sunday but too low for mention (outside of APF/PBI). SSE winds
this evening should shift more towards the SSW by tomorrow
morning, possibly shifting back to the SSE by tomorrow afternoon.
Low confidence in the afternoon wind shift, so kept the winds SSW
for now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 333 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019)

Discussion...
Short Term (Tonight-Sunday): the latest forecast for Post-
tropical cyclone Nestor show the associated stratiform canopy
moving across SoFlo, which had a noticeable hindering effect to
the daytime heating cycle earlier today. Showers and thunderstorm
activity will gradually diminish tonight as the remnants of Nestor
continue to pull NE and away from the Florida peninsula. But
there is still enough dynamic support for any storm that forms to
become strong tonight with model and upper air sounding data
depicting SRH 0-1km around 100, PWATs close to 2 inches, and
plenty of upper lvl divergence for adequate ts-top ventilation.
SPC has portions of SoFlo in a marginal risk for severe weather,
mainly Glades, Hendry and northern Collier counties, where the
stronger convection associated with the frontal boundary draped
across central Florida has been observed on radar. However, the
limiting factor continues to be having an effective lifting
mechanism for convection to reach the better dynamics aloft.
Therefore, will keep the inherited trend of decreasing POPs/Wx
this evening and into the overnight hours with mainly scattered
coverage across the area.

Brief heavy downpours could still bring localized flooding at
times, with also a marginal risk of excessive rainfall continuing
this evening.

As the remnants of Nestor move away from the region on Sunday, the
aforementioned frontal boundary will stall over southern Florida. The
leftover moisture lingering across soFlo will combine with returning
daytime heating for some convection to develop Sunday during the
early afternoon hours. The moist airmass will also contribute to
warmer temps on Sunday with highs climbing back to near 90.

Long Term (Monday-Saturday): General benign weather conditions
will return early next week with high pressure establishing in the
wake of Nestor, and with the frontal boundary over the region
finally lifting and dissipating.

Long range model solutions suggest increasing rain chances
for the middle of the week as the next cold front approaches the
area. This front should stall somewhere over extreme SoFlo or even
into the Keys. Slightly cooler temperatures are possible by
week's end along with shower chances given the front in the
vicinity.

Temperatures remain close to seasonal values or slightly warmer
with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to around 90.

Marine...
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Gulf waters
through late tonight due to elevated winds and seas associated
with Nestor. Also, Cautionary conditions are possible over the
Atlantic waters and Lake Okeechobee. Showers and thunderstorms,
some potentially strong, will continue to develop at times
tonight, and possibly through Sunday. Seas in the Gulf will be
slow to subside on Sunday as residual swells from Nestor continue
to move toward the coast.

Beach Forecast...
Hazardous beach conditions continue along the Gulf coast as Nestor
moves across the Florida Panhandle tonight. There is a high risk
for Rip Currents through Sunday, with minor coastal flooding
possible through the first half of Sunday due to onshore flow and
increased swells.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  77  89  76  88 /  40  30  20  20
Fort Lauderdale  79  89  78  88 /  20  30  10  20
Miami            78  89  77  88 /  20  20   0  20
Naples           77  88  75  89 /  80  50  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ069.

AM...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

Update/Aviation...SPM
Tonight/Sunday and Marine/Beaches...AR
Sunday Night through Saturday...AR

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
427 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
200830-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
427 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

...Strong Thunderstorms Possible This Evening...
...Coastal Flood and High Risk of Rip Currents for Gulf Coast...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

Rip currents: A high risk of Rip Currents will exist along the Gulf
beaches.

Thunderstorms: Lightning, locally heavy rainfall, and gusty winds
are primary hazards with thunderstorms.

Tornadoes: Stronger thunderstorms will be capable of producing
funnel clouds or isolated weak tornadoes.

Waterspouts: Showers and thunderstorms could produce several
waterspouts tonight over the coastal and lake waters.

Wind: Stronger thunderstorms could produce wind gusts capable of
causing isolated wind damage. Sustained winds of 20 to 25 knots over
the Gulf of Mexico will cause hazardous marine conditions. Reference
the Small Craft Advisory for the latest marine details.

Flooding: Training showers and thunderstorms could cause excessive
rainfall capable of producing minor flooding on roads and low-lying,
poorly drained areas.

Visibility:  There could be some patchy fog across Southwest Florida
and inland South Florida tonight, particularly in areas that receive
rainfall today.

Waves: 7 to 10 foot seas in the Gulf of Mexico through early Sunday
morning. Reference the Small Craft Advisory for the latest details.

Coastal Flooding: Surf heights along the Gulf beaches could reach
around 5 feet today. Sensitive and low-lying locations along the
Gulf coast may experience minor flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Thunderstorms are possible each day through Wednesday.

The risk of Rip Currents will become elevated along the Gulf and
some Atlantic beaches this weekend into possibly early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual
spotters are encouraged to report high wind, funnel clouds,
waterspouts, and flooding to the National Weather Service forecast
office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
624 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

FLZ066-070-192330-
Hendry FL-Inland Collier County FL-
624 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN COLLIER AND CENTRAL
HENDRY COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

* At 624 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 6 miles
  west of Felda to 8 miles northeast of Royal Palm Hammock. Movement
  was northeast at 30 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and funnel clouds possible with these
  storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Ave Maria, Golden Gate Estates, Immokalee, Felda, Orangetree,
  Hendry Correctional, Devils Garden, Big Corkscrew Island, Port La
  Belle, Big Cypress National Preserve, South Blocks Golde,
  Sunniland, Picayune Strand State Forest, Bunker Hill, Intersection
  I-75 And Everglades Blvd, Miles City, Keri and Lake Trafford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2635 8157 2665 8153 2677 8136 2677 8112
      2614 8110 2604 8154 2619 8163
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 230DEG 28KT 2654 8154 2606 8149

Cohen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
722 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

FLZ063-066-070-200000-
Hendry FL-Inland Collier County FL-Glades FL-
722 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL COLLIER AND EASTERN
HENDRY COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

* At 722 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near
  Devils Garden to near Ave Maria. Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and funnel clouds possible with these
  storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Clewiston, Montura, Immokalee, Devils Garden, Harlem and Bunker
  Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2664 8121 2677 8099 2677 8095 2678 8095
      2678 8093 2675 8089 2674 8088 2654 8089
      2646 8106 2633 8123 2637 8142
TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 229DEG 24KT 2655 8119 2635 8136

Cohen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
1131 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

FLZ066-067-071-200415-
Inland Broward County FL-Hendry FL-Inland Palm Beach County FL-
1131 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HENDRY...NORTHERN
BROWARD AND SOUTHWESTERN PALM BEACH COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 AM EDT...

* At 1131 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Big Cypress Seminole
  Reservation, or 25 miles south of Montura, moving northeast at 20
  mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and funnel clouds possible with this
  storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Rotenberger Wildlife Refuge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2628 8095 2633 8098 2645 8082 2631 8074
TIME...MOT...LOC 0331Z 235DEG 16KT 2630 8094

Cohen