Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Miami, FL

583 
WWUS52 KMFL 081403
SVSMFL

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
1003 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2019

FLC086-081415-
/O.CON.KMFL.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-191008T1415Z/
Miami-Dade FL-
1003 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 AM EDT
FOR CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...

At 1003 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Everglades National Park to Palmetto Bay, moving
southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Homestead, Coral Gables, Turkey Point, Homestead Miami Speedway and
Black Point.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Miami. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2533 8060 2538 8058 2563 8035 2568 8027
      2537 8028
TIME...MOT...LOC 1403Z 297DEG 8KT 2536 8053 2560 8032 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Cohen

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
734 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2019

.AVIATION...
Scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms across
South Florida with a wet pattern throughout the period. Convection
will lead to periods of MVFR/IFR conditions possible at the
terminals. Winds will be light early this morning,increasing out
of the S/SW later today. Light winds will return overnight with
showers still across the area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 406 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2019/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...

Today through Wednesday...

A low-level trough axis remains draped across Central Florida on
the 06Z Weather Prediction Center (WPC) surface analysis, with
it's axis oriented NE over the western Atlantic and extending SW
into the Yucatan Peninsula. This surface feature will attempt to
work in concert with an approaching frontal boundary today to keep
South Florida under a wet and unsettled pattern. Through the day,
the frontal boundary is forecast to push south, while the trough
axis continues to lift further north and east into the western
Atlantic. This setup will keep winds southwesterly to southerly,
allowing for deep tropical moisture to continue infiltrating
through the atmospheric column. This additional moisture is
characterized by model PWATs with values between 2.30 to 2.40
inches, which are above the 95th percentile in sounding
climatology. This should translate into scattered to numerous
showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms across the region.

Once again, this activity is expected to be slow propagating and
back build over area that are already well saturated from
yesterday's rainfall. Thus, the WPC has kept portions of South
Florida under a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall for today.
Despite flooding being the main concern, there is the potential
for stronger convection to produce brief, gusty winds as water
loading combines with 25 to 30 knot winds above the surface.

The aforementioned frontal boundary is forecast to continue
sliding southward on Wednesday, keeping southerly flow and deep
tropical moisture in place. Therefore, scattered to numerous
showers remain in the forecast for all of South Florida, along
with the potential for another round of heavy rainfall.

LONG TERM...

Thursday through Monday...

As the trough axis continues to trek northeastward and further
away from the area on Thursday, global models depict an area of
low pressure developing off of the Mid Atlantic coast associated
with this feature. An increased chance of showers and
thunderstorms will continue on Thursday as a backdoor cold front
approaches the area behind the exiting low. Thereafter, winds
look to veer out of north to northeast behind the frontal
boundary, allowing for drier to air to usher in as the deep
tropical moisture gets shunted to our South on Friday. This drier
trend looks to continue through the weekend and into early next
week as high pressure builds across the region, with only the
chance for an isolated shower possible, mainly over the Atlantic
waters and southern portions of our area.

MARINE...
Breezy south to southwesterly flow across the Atlantic waters
will continue to gradually diminish through the day, along with
the decrease in northeasterly swell east of Palm Beach County. The
chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue through
late week across all local waters, with locally higher winds and
seas possible in and around any showers and storms. Therefore,
small craft should still exercise caution.

BEACH FORECAST...
A high risk of rip currents continues for all of the Atlantic
beaches.

HYDROLOGY...

PWAT values around 2.30 to 2.40 inches are forecast to remain
over South Florida today, which are near the 95th percentile
range for this time of year. With a lingering trough axis nearby,
this could result in another round of heavy rainfall and localized
flooding for areas that are already saturated from yesterday's
rainfall. Total rainfall amounts through Wednesday look to be 1 to
2 inches over most of the area, with locally higher amounts of 2
to 3 inches possible, especially in areas where showers and
thunderstorms try to back build. The WPC has kept portions of
South Florida in a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall today.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  85  75  86  75 /  80  60  80  40
Fort Lauderdale  85  77  86  77 /  70  60  80  30
Miami            85  75  86  75 /  70  60  80  30
Naples           86  75  86  73 /  70  50  60  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

AVIATION...33/Kelly

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
850 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2019

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
090100-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
850 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2019

...Thunderstorms Expected Across South Florida Today...
...High Risk of Rip Currents for Atlantic Beaches...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a high risk of rip currents along the
Atlantic beaches.

Thunderstorms: A few thunderstorms will be possible today along with
pockets of heavy rainfall. Gusty winds and a few brief tornadoes
cannot be ruled out along the East Coast.

Flooding: Another round of showers and storms with high rainfall
rates may lead to localized flooding over isolated areas east coast
metro areas.

Waterspouts: A few waterspouts possible over all South Florida
waters.

Waves: Seas of 6 to 7 feet are possible over the Gulf Stream waters
in the Atlantic.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

The elevated rip current risk will continue this week due to
northeast swells/seas building in the Atlantic waters and increasing
onshore flow.

Increased chance for thunderstorms with heavy rainfall leading to
localized flooding potential on Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated, however spotters are
encouraged to contact NWS Miami with any reports of thunderstorm
damage or flooding.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
558 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2019

FLZ070-071-073-075-081045-
Inland Broward County FL-Inland Collier County FL-Mainland Monroe FL-
Inland Miami-Dade County FL-
558 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN COLLIER...NORTHERN
MAINLAND MONROE AND NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES UNTIL 645 AM EDT...

* At 557 AM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Fortymile Bend, or 25 miles
  northwest of Homestead General Airport, moving northeast at 15 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Loop Road Ee Center, Dade-Collier Training Airport and Fortymile
  Bend.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2564 8086 2570 8102 2598 8086 2585 8059
TIME...MOT...LOC 0957Z 215DEG 11KT 2571 8089

KELLY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
841 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2019

FLZ073-074-173-174-081345-
Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Far South Miami-Dade County FL-
Inland Miami-Dade County FL-Coastal Miami Dade County FL-
841 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY UNTIL
945 AM EDT...

* At 841 AM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near
  Miccosukee Resort to near The Redland to 7 miles east of Mahogany
  Hammock. Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and funnel clouds possible with these
  storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Miami, Hialeah, Homestead, Coral Gables, South Miami, Homestead
  Miami Speedway, Homestead General Airport, The Redland, Kendall,
  Doral, Hialeah Gardens, Pinecrest, Miami Springs, Sweetwater,
  Florida City, Miami Shores, West Miami, Medley, Westchester and
  Gladeview.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes or
waterspouts. Move indoors and stay away from windows.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2522 8081 2551 8065 2582 8061 2588 8020
      2533 8046 2523 8077 2522 8078 2521 8080
TIME...MOT...LOC 1241Z 227DEG 17KT 2581 8055 2556 8053 2531 8072

FELL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
842 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2019

FLZ067-071-081330-
Inland Broward County FL-Inland Palm Beach County FL-
842 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN BROWARD AND SOUTH
CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTIES UNTIL 930 AM EDT...

* At 842 AM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm 7 miles northwest of Intersection
  Alligator Alley And Miami Canal, or 26 miles west of Davie, moving
  northeast at 20 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and funnel clouds possible with this
  storm.

* This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northern Broward
  and south central Palm Beach Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2615 8070 2623 8082 2645 8066 2630 8043
TIME...MOT...LOC 1242Z 221DEG 18KT 2622 8071

Cohen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
845 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2019

FLZ067-068-071>074-172-173-081345-
Inland Broward County FL-Coastal Broward County FL-
Metro Broward County FL-Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-
Inland Palm Beach County FL-Inland Miami-Dade County FL-
Metro Palm Beach County FL-Coastal Miami Dade County FL-
845 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD AND
SOUTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTIES UNTIL 945 AM EDT...

* At 844 AM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from Miramar
  to near Intersection Krome And U.S. 27 to Tamiami. Movement was
  northeast at 20 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and funnel clouds possible with these
  storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Miami, Hialeah, Fort Lauderdale, Pembroke Pines, Hollywood,
  Miramar, Coral Springs, Pompano Beach, Davie, Miami Beach,
  Plantation, Sunrise, Boca Raton, Deerfield Beach, Tamarac, Margate,
  Miami Gardens, Hallandale, Lauderhill and Weston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes or
waterspouts. Move indoors and stay away from windows.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2585 8014 2579 8046 2592 8049 2623 8061
      2645 8013
TIME...MOT...LOC 1244Z 228DEG 7KT 2598 8036 2591 8046 2577 8041

FELL