High Surf Advisory 3, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
419 PM EDT Fri Oct 11 2019

.Short Term (Tonight through Saturday night)...Scattered showers
and perhaps a few thunderstorms are expected this afternoon,
primarily along the East Coast and southern portion of the
Peninsula. Overage should be a bit less than the last few days
with high pressure builds over the Southeastern United States. As
of the morning sounding, MFL was already down to 1.57 inch PW, and
this should come down even more heading into Saturday. A
beautiful day is in store for Saturday with only a 20-30% chance
for rain across the far southern Peninsula and high temperatures
in the 80s.

.Long Term...

Sunday into early next week...
The high will push southward into Central Florida, as a cold
front moves into the Southeastern United States. At the same time,
a weak cold front over the Florida Keys will slowly drift back
northward towards South Florida. This will allow for low level
moisture to work back into the region late this week into early
next week, as the winds remain easterly over South Florida.
Therefore, isolated to scattered showers will be possible more
over the southern areas on Sunday before shifting to the interior
and west coast metro areas early next week.

Middle to end of next week...
The cold front over the Southeastern United States will slowly
shift southward and should be over South Florida by end of next
week before stalling out. This will allow for the steering flow to
become more south/southwest for the middle to end of next week.
This will focus the highest coverage of scattered showers and may
be a thunderstorm over the interior and east coast metro areas.

&&

.MARINE...
The easterly winds will continue all of South Florida waters with
speeds of 10 to 15 knots. The only exception to this is over the
Atlantic waters where the speeds will be in the 15 to 20 knot
range.

Northeast swells are working into the Atlantic waters of South
Florida this afternoon from low pressure off the New England
coast which has become Subtropical Storm Melissa. The northeast
swells will continue to affect the Atlantic waters where they
should get up to 5 to 7 feet in the Atlantic waters of Palm Beach
County this weekend and up to 3 to 5 feet in rest of the Atlantic
waters. These northeast swells along with breezy easterly winds
will lead to a High Risk of Rip Currents for the east coast
beaches of South Florida this weekend.

The tides are also running about 1 to 1.5 feet above the normal
high tides for this time of year and should continue through the
weekend. These above normal high tides and the northeast swells
will lead to at least some minor coastal flooding along the
coastal roadways and at the inlets along the east coast metro
areas during the high tides. Therefore, a Coastal Flood Statement
has been issued for the east coast metro areas through at least
Saturday, but could been extended in later forecast packages.

&&

.AVIATION...
Generally VFR conditions are expected through the period. Some
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again today, but
overall coverage should be less than the last few days. NE flow
will increase through the day, with gusts to 20 knots possible
this afternoon.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Northeast swells along with breezy easterly winds this weekend will
lead to a High Risk of Rip Currents for the east coast beaches of
South Florida this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  74  84  73  85 /  30  10  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  76  84  76  85 /  40  10  10  20
Miami            75  85  74  85 /  40  20  10  20
Naples           71  89  70  88 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 PM EDT Sunday
     for AMZ650-670.

GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...MM/BNB
LONG TERM...54/BNB
MARINE...54/BNB
AVIATION...32/MM
BEACH FORECAST...54/BNB

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
1007 AM EDT Fri Oct 11 2019

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
120215-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
1007 AM EDT Fri Oct 11 2019

...High Risk of Rip Currents for the Palm Beaches...
...A Few Thunderstorms Possible This Afternoon...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a high risk of rip currents along the Palm
Beaches through Sunday night. A moderate risk for rips exists along
the Broward and Miami-Dade County beaches.

Thunderstorms: Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon,
mainly along the southern portions of the peninsula. A few storms
may become strong enough to produce localized heavy rainfall, gusty
winds, and lightning.

Winds: Stronger storms that develop could produce wind gusts up to 30
to 40 mph, mainly over the local waters.

Waterspouts: A few waterspouts are possible over all South Florida
waters.

Waves: Seas building of 6 to 7 feet are possible over the Gulf
Stream waters in the Atlantic.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

The elevated rip current risk for the Atlantic beaches will continue
through the weekend and into early week due to elevated northeast
swells/seas in the Atlantic waters.

Seas, surf, and swells will continue increasing through the upcoming
weekend across the Atlantic waters.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual
spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail and flooding to
the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.