Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
940 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 2019

.UPDATE...

A cold front that pushed into the Mid-South this afternoon has
slowed its progression southeastward and is now nearly stationary
along the I-40 corridor. Showers and thunderstorms will continue
to stream northeastward along the front during the overnight
hours. This may lead to flash flooding in areas that have already
seen a lot of rain this evening. An upper trof will swing into the
area by Monday morning which will allow the front to start moving
again. Cooler temperatures are not that far away as temperatures
have dropped into the 50s across Missouri and even the last ob at
Corning, Arkansas showed a temperature of 59 degrees. May tweak
POPS and temperatures slightly. Otherwise, current forecast looks
good.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /issued 250 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 2019/

Surface analysis this afternoon places a cold front from Southern
Indiana back through Southeast Missouri, Central Arkansas, and
into the Red River Valley of Texas and Oklahoma. KNQA WSR-88D
radar trends have shown an increase in scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the Mid-South in the past couple of hours. As
of 2 PM CDT, mostly cloudy skies prevail across the forecast area
with temperatures ranging from the 70s to around 80 degrees north
of I-40 and middle 80s to around 90 degrees elsewhere.

Short term models including Convective Allowing Model (CAM)
solutions indicate the aforementioned cold front will move
through the Mid-South tonight with better coverage of showers and
thunderstorms mostly behind the front. A few strong thunderstorms to
perhaps a severe thunderstorm is possible mainly through early
this evening with damaging winds as the primary threat for any
thunderstorms that reach severe limits.

Much cooler and drier air will filter into the Mid-South on
Monday with highs struggling to reach the lower 70s. A shortwave
ridge will bring mainly rain free weather and moderating
temperatures through mid-week.

Long term models continue to indicate southwest flow aloft
returning to the Lower Mississippi Valley late this week ahead of
a deep upper level trough and cold front that will move into the
Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys late this week into the start
of next weekend. Model run to run continuity problems continue to
persist for the Thursday night through Saturday time frame
resulting in a slightly slower trend than previous forecasts and
lower rain chances. These rain chances will likely needed to be
raised accordingly once models converge on better timing of the
next cold front in subsequent forecasts.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFs

Frontal-forced convective line was lifting through AR at 23Z,
an hour or two earlier than the HRRR (the better performing member
of the CAMs) depicted. A weak southerly jet above FL020, and the
position of an upper jet core over the northern Ohio Valley will
help sustain scattered TSRA well to the rear of the advancing
surface front through late evening.

Deepening frontal inversion and waning elevated instability should
limit TS potential at all but TUP after 09Z. Low MVFR ceilings
will likely be the main impact toward sunrise, followed by a slow
transition to VFR from northwest to southeast on Monday.

PWB

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
942 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 2019

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-080445-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
942 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A few strong to severe storms are possible over West Tennessee,
North Mississippi and east-central Arkansas through the overnight
hours. Damaging winds and large hail are possible with storms
that reach severe limits. In addition, localized heavy rainfall
may result in flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

KRM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
801 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 2019

ARZ009-018-070145-
Greene AR-Clay AR-
801 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 2019

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 845 PM CDT
FOR...

Greene County in eastern Arkansas...
Clay County in eastern Arkansas...

At 801 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds to 45 mph was
located near Evening Star, or 7 miles northwest of Crowleys Ridge
State Park, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in Greene and Clay Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3650 9022 3607 9032 3600 9037 3601 9085
      3608 9082 3611 9077 3615 9075 3615 9081
      3629 9081 3630 9079 3628 9078 3628 9075
      3641 9075 3643 9078 3650 9078
TIME...MOT...LOC 0101Z 206DEG 28KT 3613 9073

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
934 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 2019

ARZ028-TNZ048-049-070300-
Mississippi AR-Tipton TN-Lauderdale TN-
934 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 2019

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR...

Southwestern Mississippi County in eastern Arkansas...
Western Tipton County in western Tennessee...
Southwestern Lauderdale County in western Tennessee...

At 933 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds to 45 mph was
located over Bassett, or near Wilson, moving east at 30 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also likely with this thunderstorm.

People in southwestern Mississippi...western Tipton and southwestern
Lauderdale Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3547 9023 3569 9021 3573 8983 3540 8984
TIME...MOT...LOC 0233Z 275DEG 26KT 3556 9013

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
955 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 2019

TNZ048-049-088-089-070330-
Tipton TN-Fayette TN-Lauderdale TN-Shelby TN-
955 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 2019

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 1030 PM CDT
FOR...

Tipton County in western Tennessee...
Northwestern Fayette County in western Tennessee...
Southwestern Lauderdale County in western Tennessee...
Northeastern Shelby County in western Tennessee...

At 955 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing wind gusts up to 45
mph was located 7 miles southeast of Wilson, moving east at 35 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in Tipton...northwestern Fayette...southwestern Lauderdale and
northeastern Shelby Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3556 8998 3554 8996 3553 8996 3551 8992
      3552 8991 3554 8991 3556 8994 3559 8996
      3566 8948 3559 8948 3558 8950 3557 8948
      3530 8948 3540 9000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0255Z 275DEG 31KT 3550 8993

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1031 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 2019

TNZ091-092-070415-
McNairy TN-Hardin TN-
1031 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 2019

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 1115 PM CDT
FOR...

McNairy County in western Tennessee...
Southwestern Hardin County in western Tennessee...

At 1031 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing wind gusts up to 45
mph was located near Big Hill Pond State Park, moving east at 30 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also likely with this thunderstorm.

People in McNairy and southwestern Hardin Counties should monitor
this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3500 8831 3500 8878 3525 8878 3525 8872
      3526 8871 3531 8830
TIME...MOT...LOC 0331Z 265DEG 26KT 3513 8872

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1051 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 2019

TNZ053>055-091-092-070430-
Henderson TN-Chester TN-Decatur TN-McNairy TN-Hardin TN-
1051 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 2019

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 1130 PM CDT
FOR...

Southeastern Henderson County in western Tennessee...
East central Chester County in western Tennessee...
Southern Decatur County in western Tennessee...
Northeastern McNairy County in western Tennessee...
Hardin County in western Tennessee...

At 1051 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing wind gusts of 50 to
55 mph was located near Adamsville, or 9 miles northeast of Selmer,
moving east at 40 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in southeastern Henderson...east central Chester...southern
Decatur...northeastern McNairy and Hardin Counties should monitor
this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3539 8799 3539 8803 3537 8803 3535 8800
      3533 8802 3530 8802 3529 8798 3514 8799
      3509 8857 3542 8860 3556 8800 3552 8797
      3548 8799 3547 8803 3544 8804 3543 8803
      3541 8797
TIME...MOT...LOC 0351Z 256DEG 33KT 3527 8848

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>