Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
406 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

.DISCUSSION...GOES-16 Water Vapor Satellite and regional WSR-88D
radar trends indicate a Mesoscale Convective System moving over
portions of Arkansas, Southeast Missouri and the Missouri Bootheel this
afternoon. A line of showers and thunderstorms with a few
scattered showers and thunderstorms just ahead of the line extend
from the Missouri Bootheel back into East Central Arkansas. As of
3 PM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South are in the lower 90s
where rain free conditions are still occurring, and 70s where
showers and thunderstorms have already occurred this afternoon.
Short term convective trends are the primary concern in this
afternoon's forecast issuance.

The aforementioned line of showers and thunderstorms with a cold
pool will continue to push across portions of the Mid-South into
this evening. Surface based CAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg and
0-6 km Bulk Shear values approaching 35 kts will support a
potential for damaging winds as the primary severe weather threat.
Hail is not as much of a concern as wind as freezing levels
remain quite high. Precipitable water values around 2 inches will
also support localized heavy rainfall, especially with training
thunderstorms.

Models indicate the potential for showers and thunderstorms will
continue across the Mid-South this week with another shortwave
trough moving across the area on Tuesday and a warm, moist, and
unstable airmass remaining in place across the Lower Mississippi
Valley. Overall shear is expected to remain weak with pulse type
thunderstorms being the most probable convective mode in a high
CAPE, low shear environment. In this scenario, the best shower and
thunderstorm chances would typically occur during the afternoon-
early/mid evening hours. Overall temperatures this week will
remain nearly similar over the next 7 days with highs in the 80s
to approaching 90 degrees and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
/18z TAFs/

Isolated thunderstorms are developing across the Mid-South early
this afternoon with a more organized line of storms moving out of
the Ozarks. This complex of storms is expected to march southeast
across the CWA during the late afternoon and early evening hours,
resulting in thunderstorms on station and gusty outflow winds.
Additional convection is possible overnight, although confidence
is lower on the timing/extent of this second wave. Low clouds are
expected to develop late tonight and continue into Monday morning
with generally dry weather tomorrow after morning precipitation
moves east.

MJ

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
410 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-242315-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
410 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening
across the Mid-South. Damaging winds will be the main threat if
any thunderstorms reach severe limits. Localized heavy rainfall is
also possible with the thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed into this evening in support of
severe weather operations.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
401 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0343 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CARDWELL                36.05N  90.29W
06/23/2019                   DUNKLIN            MO   SOCIAL MEDIA

            POWERLINE DOWN ON HWY IN CARDWELL MO, LIGHTING GRASS ON
            FIRE.

&&

SGW