Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
220 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Storms are scattering across the region this afternoon.  High
cape/low shear environment with many of the storms pulsing.  The
limping along complex over MO/KY is slowly entering our area.  There
is concern that as this complex churns south into a favorable
environment that more widespread damaging winds could occur through
this evening.

Models are consistent with a change in the pattern beginning Sunday
night as a cold front approaches the area in association with a
fairly vigorous, for late June, shortwave moving through the Central
US. Thunderstorms are expected regionwide as this front moves
through the area beginning Sunday night through Monday. The best
forcing with this system is farther north, however with the
airmass in place there is plenty of instability, so expect strong
to severe thunderstorms with damaging wind as the main threat.

Thereafter, precipitation will be hit and miss and generally
diurnally driven as temperatures cool to a bit below average.
Although a surface ridge is evident through much of next week the
upper flow has relatively low heights which contribute to favorable
lapse rates rates for late day convection as the core of the upper
ridge remains over the intermountain west.

Belles

&&

.AVIATION...
/18z TAFs/

Scattered convection is developing along/south of I-40 this
afternoon and additional develop is expected farther north along a
remnant outflow boundary. Thus, VCTS was included at all terminals
this afternoon and may need to be extended a bit into the evening
as a convective complex over MO moves to the southeast. Generally
VFR conditions are anticipated outside of convection with
southwest winds at 8-14 kts, gusting near 20 kts at times.
Additional storms may be an issue Sunday afternoon, but confidence
is low pending the evolution of this afternoon's convection. Also
wouldn't be surprised to see some brief MVFR ceilings Sunday
morning as daytime heating commences.

MJ

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Cross-Lee AR-
     Phillips-St. Francis.

MO...None.
MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Coahoma-Quitman-
     Tallahatchie-Tunica.

TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
315 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-231215-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
315 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Heat Advisory for portions of the Mid-South, mainly south and west
of Memphis until 7 pm.

An area north and east of a line from Paragould, Arkansas, to
Tupelo, Mississippi, will have a slight risk for severe weather into
tonight. Damaging Wind is the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Sunday may have strong to severe storms, mainly west of the
Mississippi River.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

TLSJr/JEB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
506 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

TNZ088-089-222245-
Fayette TN-Shelby TN-
506 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR...

West central Fayette County in western Tennessee...
East central Shelby County in western Tennessee...

At 506 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing dime size hail and
winds to 50 mph was located over Lakeland, or near Bartlett, moving
east at 15 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in west central Fayette and east central Shelby Counties
should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3513 8984 3525 8987 3534 8960 3510 8958
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 252DEG 12KT 3522 8976

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
507 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

MSZ005-006-222245-
Tishomingo MS-Alcorn MS-
507 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR...

Central Tishomingo County in northeastern Mississippi...
Southeastern Alcorn County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 507 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger was located over Leedy, or 9 miles west of Iuka, moving east
at 10 mph.

People in central Tishomingo and southeastern Alcorn Counties should
monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3471 8812 3467 8813 3473 8833 3474 8833
      3474 8835 3476 8835 3476 8843 3489 8842
      3492 8816 3491 8814 3490 8811
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 271DEG 8KT 3482 8836

SGW

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