Alert archive / Tennessee / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2019

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Memphis, TN

June 21, 20199 counties in Tennessee

NWS Memphis, TN issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 21, 2019, 6:25 PM CDT for 9 counties in Tennessee. It was in force for 50 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jun 21, 2019, 6:25 PM CDT (23:25 UTC)
Expired: Jun 21, 2019, 7:15 PM CDT
In force: 50 min
Issued by: NWS Memphis, TN
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 0.75 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Benton County, TN, Carroll County, TN, Crockett County, TN, Dyer County, TN, Gibson County, TN, Haywood County, TN, Henry County, TN, Lauderdale County, TN, Weakley County, TN

The radar

The Memphis radar (KNQA), 115 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jun 21, 3:19 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr
Jun 21, 5:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 11.4 hours before the alert went out and 206 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1203 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 69 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 145 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 21, 2:48 PM CDT, 3 hours 37 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 21, 2:48 PM CDT, 3 hours 37 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
248 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Current satellite/radar imagery shows two decent bow echos moving
through MO and IL. A 30kt LLJ from the southwest currently sits
over eastern Arkansas and is helping pump in moisture from the
south as dew points have been unbearable all day with values in
the mid-to-upper 70s. The storm complex in MO has taken a further
southward trend - making it possible for our northern counties to
get clipped. If the storms hold together, damaging winds will be a
concern as the storms will continue to move into a favorable
environment with plenty of instability as MLCAPE values over the
far northern portion of the CWA currently sits at 4,500 J/kg and
MUCAPE as high as 6,000 J/kg. One limiting factor is bulk shear,
with values maxing out at 30kts over the northern portions of the
CWA.

Additionally, the heat is also a concern and will continue to be
at least through tomorrow as an upper-level ridge builds over the
region through the weekend. Heat indices have reached over 100
degrees over most of the area today with much of the same expected
tomorrow. A weak shortwave at the 500mb level with associated PVA
will move through the northern portion of the CWA late this
evening; this could help keep the showers and thunderstorms
upstream going as they head towards the CWA, some of which could
be strong. However, with a building ridge at the 700mb level,
confidence on potential thunderstorms this evening is not great.
CAMS and short range models are not handling the current pattern
well, so this will likely have to be a nowcasting event if
something gets going over the area this evening.

Cooler air will move in after Sunday as a cold front moves through
the area. Models are in decent agreement on the timing of when the
front will arrive, however there are large differences in the
amount of precip that will fall. The GFS as expected is a little
faster with the front moving in Sunday night and into Monday
morning. The NAM and ECMWF are in a little better agreement with
the front moving through Monday afternoon and evening. However,
the NAM is much drier.  Behind the front, slightly cooler air is
expected with weak perturbations moving through the area with a
zonal and more progressive pattern through the week. The heat
looks to return late next week with a building ridge.

&&

KRF

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFs

MVFR ceilings are slowly improving this morning and should lift to
VFR in the next hour or so. Generally dry weather is expect this
afternoon but there is a potential for an evening/overnight MCS to
move southeast across portions of west TN. Confidence remains low
so no mention will be made in the forecast at this time. Low
clouds are expected to develop again tomorrow morning, mainly
south of I-40. Gusty south to southwest winds will diminish
slightly this evening, increasing again on Saturday.

MJ

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Crittenden-Cross-
     Lee AR-Phillips-St. Francis.

MO...None.
MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Calhoun-Chickasaw-
     Coahoma-DeSoto-Monroe-Panola-Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tate-
     Tunica-Yalobusha.

TN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Shelby.

&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 21, 5:56 PM CDT, 29 minutes before

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In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jun 21, 5:23 PM CDT, 1 hour 2 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
523 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

TNZ001>003-212315-
Weakley TN-Lake TN-Obion TN-
523 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR...

Northern Weakley County in western Tennessee...
Eastern Lake County in western Tennessee...
Obion County in western Tennessee...

Winds to 50 mph will be possible over the advisory area through 615
PM CDT, associated with outflow from strong to severe thunderstorms
over Kentucky.

These thunderstorms will move southeast into northwest Tennessee
through 6 PM. Severe thunderstorm warnings may follow if trends
continue.

People in northern Weakley...eastern Lake and Obion Counties should
monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3650 8852 3643 8852 3629 8863 3624 8952
      3650 8936
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 314DEG 20KT 3660 8942

Local storm report, Jun 21, 5:45 PM CDT, 40 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Jun 21, 5:51 PM CDT, 34 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Jun 21, 6:08 PM CDT, 17 minutes before

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Local storm report, Jun 21, 6:09 PM CDT, 16 minutes before

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Local storm report, Jun 21, 6:20 PM CDT, 5 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Memphis, TN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 21, 4:20 AM CDT	Heat Advisory	MEG	Calhoun, Chickasaw, Coahoma, DeSoto, Monroe, Panola and 5 more	15 hr
Jun 21, 7:39 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Lauderdale	51 min
Jun 21, 8:34 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Haywood	26 min
Jun 21, 4:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Lake	49 min
Jun 21, 5:23 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Obion, Weakley	52 min
Jun 21, 5:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Dyer, Lake	59 min
Jun 21, 5:51 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Henry, Lake, Obion, Weakley	54 min
Jun 21, 5:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Benton, Dyer, Gibson, Henry, Lake, Obion and 1 more	51 min
Jun 21, 6:18 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Dyer, Lauderdale, Tipton	57 min
Jun 21, 4:45 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Clay	45 min
Jun 21, 6:08 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Craighead, Mississippi	37 min
Jun 21, 6:50 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Craighead	40 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Tennessee, 2019 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.