Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
336 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.DISCUSSION...

A steamy afternoon across the Mid-South at this hour.
Temperatures generally range from the upper 80s to 90 degrees.
The hottest spot is currently West Memphis, AR where the heat
index has crept into the triple digits over the past hour.
Convection has been largely confined near an outflow boundary over
over north Mississippi today. Storms have remained sub severe so
far, with winds peaking around 40 mph with the strongest of
cores. Latest KNQA radar shows storms just beginning to fire up
to our west over east-central Arkansas. This activity is expected
to push into northeast Arkansas and then lift through northwest
Tennessee through this evening. A few storms could be strong
to severe with damaging winds as the main threat. After sundown,
most activity should come to an end.

Monday through Wednesday...
Broad upper level split flow will result in unsettled weather
through this timeframe. The first of multiple shortwaves is
progged to move through the region tomorrow afternoon and into
the early morning hours on Tuesday. The best height falls will
occur across the northern half of the area. The aforementioned
area will have the best chance of strong to possibly a couple
severe storms on Monday, with damaging winds as the main threat.
Expect highs in the mid to upper 80s.

A weak surface low will track across the Ozarks on Tuesday and
stall a boundary out across the area. This will serve as a focus
for storms on Tuesday. However, coverage should be a bit lower
than Monday as heights will build behind the exiting wave by late
afternoon. Another subtle shortwave will move into the Lower
Mississippi Valley on Wednesday and spawn more widespread
convection.

Models are now hinting at yet another more pronounced shortwave
pivoting through the area on Thursday in addition to a deepening
surface low tracking near St. Louis. This wave will have more of a
positive tilt to it, and a surface trough moving into the Mid-
South. With quite a bit of instability and moderate dynamics,
organized strong to severe storms are possible on Thursday. Will
go ahead and add that to the HWO.

Friday through next Weekend...
We will finally see a brief break from the clouds and
precipitation, but that means the heat will turn up on Friday.
Heat indices will hit the triple digits west of the Mississippi
River on Friday with upper 90s across the rest of the area. Would
not be surprised if a couple of spots in northeast Arkansas meet
105F heat advisory criteria on Friday as a 590dm ridge builds in.

By Saturday, the upper level pattern will become unsettled once
again as a shortwave, embedded in southwest flow aloft, approaches
the area from the west. Multiple waves will rotate through the
Mid-South through early next week with good chances for showers
and thunderstorms each day.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs

Short term convection-allowing models (CAMs) continued to
struggle with evolution of TSRA over the Arklamiss, into north MS
this morning, often failing to initialize ongoing convection.

18Z MEM TAF delayed TSRA onset to 20Z, to account for possible
development along the northwest flank of TSRA moving through north
MS. Confidence not great however, given comparatively more stable
appearance to the cumulus field on GOES visible imagery, and
overlying convective cirrus from TSRA to south.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
339 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-172245-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
339 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A few strong storms will be possible this afternoon into the early
evening hours. The primary hazard will be damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Additional strong storms will be possible across portions of the
Mid-South Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

AC3

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
433 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0413 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BAY                     35.74N  90.56W
06/16/2019                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTER AN OVERTUTNED SEMI ON
            INTERSTATE 555 - NEAR MILE MARKER 31.

&&

KRF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
433 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

ARZ026-028-162215-
Craighead AR-Mississippi AR-
433 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR...

Southeastern Craighead County in eastern Arkansas...
Northwestern Mississippi County in eastern Arkansas...

At 433 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located near Keiser, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in southeastern Craighead and northwestern Mississippi
Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3575 8993 3573 8996 3570 8996 3570 9038
      3600 9028 3600 8977
TIME...MOT...LOC 2133Z 213DEG 15KT 3572 9016

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
452 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

MOZ113-115-162245-
Pemiscot MO-Dunklin MO-
452 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR...

Pemiscot County in southeastern Missouri...
Southeastern Dunklin County in southeastern Missouri...

At 452 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located 7 miles southwest of
Deering, or 8 miles west of Steele, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in Pemiscot and southeastern Dunklin Counties should monitor
this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3640 8967 3641 8962 3640 8959 3635 8956
      3634 8957 3634 8962 3632 8962 3630 8960
      3625 8964 3625 8970 3624 8971 3621 8967
      3600 8983 3600 9015 3639 8996 3639 8975
      3643 8973
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 222DEG 26KT 3612 8999

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
501 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0413 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BAY                     35.74N  90.56W
06/16/2019                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO DOLLAR
            GENERAL IN BAY, AR.

&&

KRF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
503 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

ARZ009-MOZ113-162230-
Clay AR-Dunklin MO-
503 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR...

Northeastern Clay County in eastern Arkansas...
Northeastern Dunklin County in southeastern Missouri...

At 503 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located near Corning, moving
northeast at 10 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northeastern Clay and northeastern Dunklin Counties should
monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3663 8996 3661 8996 3640 9025 3640 9062
      3650 9056 3650 9022 3654 9021 3655 9019
      3659 9019 3663 9015
TIME...MOT...LOC 2203Z 224DEG 9KT 3645 9050

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