Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
349 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019

.DISCUSSION...Surface analysis this afternoon places a surface low
over Northwest Iowa, a warm front over the Upper Midwest into the
Ohio Valley, and a trailing cold front over Kansas and West Texas.
Regional WSR-88D radar trends indicate a line of showers and
thunderstorms over Western Arkansas late this afternoon with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over Southern
Arkansas. As of 3 PM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South are in
the middle to upper 80s at most locations.

Short term models including Convective Allowing Model (CAM)
solutions indicate the aforementioned showers and thunderstorms
will begin to approach areas along and west of the Mississippi
River this evening. Model trends tend to suggest this activity
will weaken late this evening as it reaches West Tennessee and
North Mississippi with another round anticipated overnight towards
sunrise Sunday. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
with damaging winds and perhaps large hail as the threats this
evening.

There is a potential for additional showers and thunderstorms to
develop along a cold front towards Sunday afternoon/evening. Any
activity during this period is anticipated to be somewhat
disorganized with the overall shear being weak.

Long term model trends indicate another shortwave trough embedded
within southwest flow aloft will move across portions of the Lower
Mississippi Valley Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will result in
a warm front retreating north across the area during the day on
Tuesday and a trailing cold front approach then retreat from the
Mid-South Tuesday night.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will diminish towards late next
week as an upper level ridge builds in across the region,
resulting in decreased rain chances.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
/18z TAFs/

Generally dry weather anticipated at the forecast terminals
through 00z, but the first wave of convection is expected to
arrive this evening, weakening as it moves across the MS River.
Another round of storms is expected late tonight, mainly after
08z, eventually waning by mid-morning. Gusty winds may accompany
thunderstorms, but confidence is low on timing. Ceilings will
remain VFR (outside of convection) most of the night, but should
lower to MVFR for a period Sunday morning between 12-18z. Gusty
south winds will continue through the TAF period veering a bit
more southwesterly Sunday morning.

Johnson

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
359 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-192300-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
359 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a slight risk for severe weather across the Delta Region
of the Mid-South with the best chances for severe thunderstorms
occurring this evening. The main threats will be damaging winds
with a secondary threat for large hail. Locally heavy rainfall
and localized flash flooding is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A few strong to severe storms are possible east of the Mississippi
River on Sunday.

A few strong to severe storms are possible across Northeast
Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel Tuesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required tonight across the Delta region
of the Mid-South.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
633 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019

ARZ009-018-026-190015-
Greene AR-Craighead AR-Clay AR-
633 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 715 PM CDT
FOR...

Greene County in eastern Arkansas...
Northern Craighead County in eastern Arkansas...
Southwestern Clay County in eastern Arkansas...

At 633 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds to 45 mph was
located near Fontaine, or near Walnut Ridge, moving east at 40 mph.

People in Greene...northern Craighead and southwestern Clay Counties
should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3588 9087 3598 9084 3599 9086 3608 9082
      3611 9077 3615 9075 3615 9081 3629 9081
      3630 9079 3628 9078 3628 9075 3632 9075
      3640 9047 3603 9035 3600 9038 3599 9033
      3592 9031 3587 9093 3588 9093
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 259DEG 34KT 3605 9086

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
641 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019

ARZ009-190015-
Clay AR-
641 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 715 PM CDT
FOR...

Northwestern Clay County in eastern Arkansas...

At 640 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds to 45 mph was
located over Biggers, or 10 miles northeast of Pocahontas, moving
east at 40 mph.

People in northwestern Clay County should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3650 9051 3638 9045 3629 9079 3630 9078
      3631 9075 3641 9075 3641 9077 3642 9077
      3642 9076 3643 9078 3643 9077 3644 9078
      3649 9077 3650 9078
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 259DEG 33KT 3636 9083