Severe Thunderstorm Warning 152, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1153 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2019

.UPDATE...

Updated to include 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 529 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2019/

DISCUSSION... /issued 521 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2019/

Early morning GOES water vapor imagery showed a deep upper low
over western Nebraska. 11Z/5AM CST surface analysis showed a 990mb
surface low centered near North Platte, nearly beneath the upper
low.

The upper low will track east across Nebraska today, gradually
deepening and reaching south central Iowa by midnight. The
Midsouth will remain in the low level warm sector, south of a
frontal occlusion point likely near St Louis at 18Z/Noon CST.
Latest guidance from convection-allowing models (CAMs) depict less
warm sector shower coverage over the Midsouth through mid-
afternoon. Perhaps related, NAM Bufr soundings depicted a less
steep low level thermal inversion relative to yesterday's guidance.
Effective lifted parcel level still depicted near 900mb, where
winds of 22050KT, above the stronger directional shear in the
underlying inversion. Big question is whether the strong
directional shear embedded in underlying stable layer can be
tapped by updrafts along the strongly forced frontal zone. Given
the relative weakness of the inversion, wouldn't be too surprised
to see some near-boundary layer sheer tapped, leading to some
rotating updrafts and bowing QLCS segments. This will be more
likely to occur along and south of the I-40 corridor, where
MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/KG is expected.

By mid-evening, the elevated warm conveyor belt will shift east
into AL/middle TN, while the midlevel dry-slot edges in from the
west. Model-blended surface winds under this dry slot appeared to
be a bit low, and official gridded wind forecasts have been
increased.

The upper low center will move to near Chicago by midday Sunday.
Wrap around clouds from the mid-MS River valley will likely extend
into the Midsouth, mainly north and east of Memphis. Cool, blustery
weather expected Sunday. Wind chills in the 30s north of I-40
before noon.

By midday Monday, the upper low center will lift to the mid/upper
Atlantic coast, while an upstream height ridge extends from the
southern plains through the upper MS River valley. This ridge will
deamplify with a weak open trof dropping into the mid and upper MS
River valley on Tuesday. For the Midsouth, west-northwest flow
aloft will prevail through the midweek periods, with dry
conditions and seasonal temps. Next rain chance arrives via a
southern branch low, arriving late week. At this time, models are
in fair agreement with respect to timing, showing rain exiting by
next weekend.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Set

A mix of MVFR/IFR conds will persist in the short term due to low
CIGs. By 20Z...A line of SHRA/TSRA will begin to push through
JBR...followed by MEM and MKL...and TUP a few hours later. VSBYs
will be reduced to as low as LIFR at MEM and TUP with the heaviest
SHRAs and TSRAs. The cold front will push through quickly this
evening...bringing an end to RA and low CIGs at all sites by
midnight.

Expect southerly winds to shift westerly behind the front and
remain above 10 kts overnight. Westerly winds will increase to
15-20 kts with gusts to 25kt near the end of the TAF period.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
402 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2019

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-011215-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
402 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms from mid-afternoon
through mid-evening south and east of a Jonesboro, Arkansas to
Dyersburg, Tennessee line. There is a Marginal Risk for severe
thunderstorms over far northeast Arkansas, the Missouri bootheel,
and far northwest Tennessee.

The primary severe weather risks include damaging winds and large
hail, mainly over the Slight Risk area. There is a secondary
risk of short-lived tornadoes, mainly over north Mississippi.

Given saturated soils from recent rainfall, sub-severe
thunderstorm winds will be capable of downing trees.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and early evening.

PWB

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
131 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2019

ARZ058-MSZ007-010-011-302015-
Phillips AR-Tunica MS-Coahoma MS-Quitman MS-
131 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2019

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 215 PM CST
FOR...

Central Phillips County in eastern Arkansas...
Southern Tunica County in northwestern Mississippi...
Northern Coahoma County in northwestern Mississippi...
Northwestern Quitman County in northwestern Mississippi...

At 131 PM CST...a strong thunderstorm producing pea to dime size hail
was located near White River National Wildlife Refuge, moving
northeast at 75 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in central Phillips...southern Tunica...northern Coahoma and
northwestern Quitman Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3414 9108 3419 9109 3422 9106 3425 9108
      3425 9106 3428 9108 3430 9107 3429 9106
      3430 9106 3431 9107 3434 9105 3434 9100
      3437 9100 3474 9032 3463 9023 3460 9024
      3455 9020 3448 9020 3412 9095 3412 9112
TIME...MOT...LOC 1931Z 238DEG 64KT 3416 9115

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
134 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2019

TNZ022-302000-
Benton TN-
134 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2019

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 200 PM CST
FOR...

Central Benton County in western Tennessee...

At 134 PM CST...a strong thunderstorm producing pea to dime size hail
was located near Camden, moving east at 65 mph.

People in central Benton County should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3613 8792 3611 8794 3608 8796 3606 8798
      3603 8800 3600 8800 3598 8802 3596 8808
      3613 8817 3622 8795 3619 8794 3616 8792
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 250DEG 55KT 3608 8805

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
158 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2019

MSZ008-011-012-302045-
Panola MS-Tate MS-Quitman MS-
158 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2019

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 245 PM CST
FOR...

Northwestern Panola County in northwestern Mississippi...
Eastern Tate County in northwestern Mississippi...
Central Quitman County in northwestern Mississippi...

At 158 PM CST...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located over Marks, or 16 miles
east of Clarksdale, moving northeast at 70 mph.

People in northwestern Panola...eastern Tate and central Quitman
Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3411 9028 3425 9043 3426 9041 3426 9040
      3427 9040 3477 8977 3477 8972 3469 8972
      3469 8967 3456 8967 3455 8972 3449 8972
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 228DEG 62KT 3423 9029