Severe Thunderstorm Warning 149, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1219 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2019

.UPDATE...

Remnants of Olga is moving across Northeast Mississippi at this
time. The band on the northern side of the circulation is
producing gusts up to around 50 KTS. Outside of that band, winds
are gusting up to around 35-38 KTS. Will continue with the Wind
Advisory through 2 PM. As the circulation lifts off to the the
Northeast, rain will quickly taper off across the Northwest
Mississippi and Southwest Tennessee while wrap around light rain
may still linger across Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri
Bootheel. Since the threat of heavy rainfall is ending, have
allowed the Flash Flood Watch to expire for much of the CWA.
Current forecast looks good.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /issued 428 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2019/

GOES water imagery showed an upper low over the Arklatex early
this morning, as Post-Tropical Cyclone Olga was coming ashore over
southern LA. Under increasingly diffluent flow aloft, the remnant
surface low from Olga will merge with deepening inverted pressure
trof and track northward up the MS River delta into west TN
through early afternoon.

Expect rainfall rates to increase with the influx of tropical
moisture and deepening pressure fields. From mid-morning through
early afternoon, we're more likely to see short duration (fast-
moving) pockets of moderate to heavy rain, rather than the persistent
light rain of the past 24 to 30 hours.

The severe threat over northeast MS through early afternoon will
be conditional on the amount of clearing and near surface
destabilization under the impinging midlevel dry slot. Without
clearing, NAM Bufr soundings suggest thunderstorms will remain
rooted in an elevated layer, leaving underlying strong directional
sheer untapped. If upstream heating and boundary layer
destabilization develops, conditions will be favorable for
damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two. Confidence in this
scenario is low, but the cloud trends in the dry slot will bear
watching this morning. In any case, convective focus will shift
east of MS by noon to 1 PM.

Few changes to the forecast through midweek, with today's 00Z GFS
coming into line with yesterday's ECMWF/Canadian consensus of a
deepening longwave trof over the western CONUS. Relatively strong
southwest flow aloft will prevail over the Midsouth by Tuesday,
followed by height falls and increasing rain chances on Wednesday.
From there, the models begin to diverge, with the GFS again being
the most progressive. Relatively good consensus between the
ECMWF, Canadian, and even the GFS ensemble mean suggests rain
chances will persist into Thursday. Dry Pacific high pressure
will settle in Thursday night, setting up portions of the Midsouth
up for possible early morning freezing low temps Friday and next
weekend.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

/12Z TAFs/

Challenging TAF set as Post-Tropical Storm Olga will move up the
Mississippi Valley and being centered near MEM around 18Z
Saturday. Rain is expected to persist at TAF sites with winds
gradually increasing into the day Saturday as the center moves
across the area. E/NE winds are anticipated to veer SE then SW by
this afternoon. Gusts should diminish by Saturday evening, with
the potential for BR at all sites around 07z. Confidence is low on
visby, though they have the potential for lower visby by early
morning Sunday. Have also kept late morning into Saturday
afternoon VCTS for low topped convection possibly associated with
Olga mainly at TUP.

SGW/CJC

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...Flash Flood Watch until 2 PM CDT this afternoon for Alcorn-
     Itawamba-Lee MS-Monroe-Prentiss-Tishomingo.

     Wind Advisory until 2 PM CDT this afternoon for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     Calhoun-Chickasaw-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-Marshall-Monroe-
     Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Tallahatchie-Tippah-Tishomingo-
     Union-Yalobusha.

TN...Flash Flood Watch until 2 PM CDT this afternoon for Benton TN-
     Carroll-Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Gibson-Hardin-
     Henderson-Henry-Lake-Madison-McNairy-Obion-Weakley.

     Wind Advisory until 2 PM CDT this afternoon for Benton TN-
     Carroll-Chester-Decatur-Hardeman-Hardin-Henderson-Madison-
     McNairy.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1209 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2019

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-271915-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
1209 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall may lead to flooding of
low-lying areas through early afternoon.

There is a Marginal Risk for severe storms over northeast
Mississippi and portions of West Tennessee through early
afternoon. Damaging winds will be the primary threat.

Wind gusts in excess of 30 mph, not associated with thunderstorms,
will be possible this morning over northeast Mississippi and
portions of west Tennessee near the Tennessee River.

Dense fog will be possible overnight across the area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Freezing temperatures will be possible Friday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

KRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1204 PM CDT SAT OCT 26 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1146 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 WNW TUPELO            34.28N  88.77W
10/26/2019  M60 MPH          LEE                MS   ASOS

            ASOS REPORTED WIND GUST OF 52 KT.

&&

TLSJR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1222 PM CDT SAT OCT 26 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1208 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 WNW TUPELO            34.28N  88.77W
10/26/2019  M71 MPH          LEE                MS   ASOS

            ASOS MEASURED 62KT GUST.

&&

TLSJR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1252 PM CDT SAT OCT 26 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW TUPELO             34.25N  88.74W
10/26/2019                   LEE                MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES UPROOTED AND SNAPPED.

&&

TLSJR