Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
311 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Currently...Warm front has lifted well NE of the area and the dry
airmass that was in place has been replaced by more summer like
humidity. An upper level disturbance moving through the Mid-South
has resulted in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
mainly north of I-40 today. Temps attm range from the 70s, where
it is raining, to the mid 90s across parts of North MS where the
upper ridge has more influence and the sun is shining.

Tonight through Thursday...Additional convection is developing
across north central AR in an area of higher instability. This
development is in response to another upper level disturbance
moving across southern MO. This activity will move into areas
north of I-40 later this afternoon into the early evening and then
probably dissipate as the instability diminishes. Later tonight
the main mid level trough pushing through the Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley will send a cold front toward the Mid-South. Expect
additional showers and thunderstorms to develop along and ahead of
the front mainly north of I-40. Activity will linger into
Thursday morning but then begin to diminish as the mid level
trough exits and the cold front weakens over the area. Thursday
afternoon should be mostly dry with temps in the lower 80s north
to lower 90s south.

Thursday night through Wednesday...500 mb upper ridge will
rebuild over the area and strengthen to 594 DM by Sunday. Expect
rain free weather and lots of sunshine. Temps will climb back into
the lower 90s Friday and Saturday with mid 90s at some places
from Sunday through the middle of next week. Models have been
suggesting a frontal passage by the end of next week but the 12z
ECMWF is a little concerning. It has the upper ridge holding tough
with the very warm weather continuing through the end of the work
week at least.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFs

Showers and a few occasional embedded thunderstorms moving through
E AR and W TN as of 18Z. Left out TS mention in TAFs due to
limited instability and low confidence of occurrence for this
afternoon at sites. Short term trends suggest there may a be a
break this evening before additional showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm or two moves into the area late tonight into Thursday
morning. VFR conditions expected to prevail through much of the
period with a potential for MVFR conditions Thursday morning.
Confidence isn't particularly high for the lower clouds and have
only mentioned a SCT lower deck for now. W winds will become light
this evening then gradually veer NW/N after passage of a cold
front later tonight into Thursday morning.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
822 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2019

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-261530-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
822 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few strong storms with gusty winds are possible today mainly
across eastern Arkansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

SJM