Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
258 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Surface cold front had dropped to the I-40 corridor of west TN at
2 PM CDT / 19Z. Storms were an hour or two ahead of convection-
allowing model (CAM) consensus from earlier today. GOES East
visible imagery indicted an elongated shear axis, parallel to and
on the cold side of the surface front. Expect this feature to aid
in scattered post-frontal shower and thunderstorm development into
the evening. On the whole, expect the system remain progressive.
GOES East multi-layer water imagery indicated strong deep layer
subsidence over MO, which will spread over the Midsouth late
tonight. Late evening and overnight rain chances may need additional
trimming.

Following several weeks of warm and very humid conditions, drier
midcontinental air will prevail over all the Midsouth on Tuesday.
Low level return flow from the gulf will likely not commence to
any great degree until the weekend. In the interim, given the
above normal greenness and full sunshine, expect evapotranspiration
to gradually drive surface dewpoints to the upper 60s by Friday -
still about 10 degrees cooler than dewpoints over the last several
weeks. Once return flow is established, weekend dewpoints will
return to the 70s.

With the return of gulf humidity, isolated storms will be
possible by the weekend. The 12Z GFS appeared to be exhibiting
its warm season nocturnal wet bias. Given the weak deep layer shear,
expect weekend and early next week rain chances to be confined to
the heat of the day.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF cycle

A rare midsummer cold front has moved through JBR. Current timing
should take it through MEM and MKL well before sunset and through
TUP around sunset. Winds ahead of the front are from the
Southwest 8-10kt, and from the North 8-10kt behind the front. A
line of thunderstorms will likely accompany the front ar MEM and
MKL. Added a 3hr tempo group for 3sm VIS and MVFR cigs accordingly.
On station thunderstorms look slightly less likely at TUP. Cigs
may lower to MVFR or IFR levels briefly overnight with VFR cigs
returning to MEM, JBR and MKL late tonight or early tomorrow. Wind
tomorrow will be from the North to Northeast 10-14kt.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1229 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-231930-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
1229 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon over
west Tennessee east of the Memphis metro, and over far northeast
Mississippi. There is a Marginal Risk over the remainder of the
Midsouth.

Damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall will possible,
particularly over the Slight Risk Area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon over West
Tennessee and far northeast Mississippi.

PWB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
153 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

TNZ021-022-221945-
Carroll TN-Benton TN-
153 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 245 PM CDT
FOR...

Northeastern Carroll County in western Tennessee...
Southern Benton County in western Tennessee...

At 153 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds in excess of 30
mph was located near Bruceton, or 9 miles southwest of Camden, moving
east at 20 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northeastern Carroll and southern Benton Counties should
monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3587 8794 3584 8797 3584 8804 3585 8805
      3586 8828 3611 8825 3609 8795 3603 8800
      3600 8800 3598 8802 3595 8802 3594 8800
      3594 8793
TIME...MOT...LOC 1853Z 271DEG 17KT 3596 8822

SGW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
358 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

MSZ016-017-024-222145-
Itawamba MS-Monroe MS-Lee MS-
358 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR...

Itawamba County in northeastern Mississippi...
Northern Monroe County in northeastern Mississippi...
Southeastern Lee County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 358 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located over Evergreen, or 7
miles southeast of Tombigbee State Park, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in Itawamba...northern Monroe and southeastern Lee Counties
should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3391 8823 3391 8872 3395 8872 3446 8837
      3446 8816
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 240DEG 49KT 3415 8854

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
359 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

TNZ091-092-222145-
McNairy TN-Hardin TN-
359 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR...

Southeastern McNairy County in western Tennessee...
Hardin County in western Tennessee...

At 359 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located near Savannah, moving
east at 50 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in southeastern McNairy and Hardin Counties should monitor
this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3500 8820 3500 8853 3538 8820 3539 8817
      3538 8812 3541 8808 3540 8804 3535 8800
      3533 8802 3530 8802 3529 8798 3501 8798
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 267DEG 42KT 3515 8826

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