River Flood Warning 63, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
550 AM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

.UPDATE...
Updated for 12Z Aviation Forecast Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 AM CST Wed Feb 20 2019/

DISCUSSION...

A busy early morning is ongoing across the Mid-South. The latest
radar imagery depicts a line of showers and thunderstorms now
pushing into the eastern reaches of the FA, with lighter showers
well behind the line. A robust LLJ has driven this convection
overnight, and caused compression issues with incoming aircraft to
Memphis International. As this jet progresses east so will the
convection, gradually departing the region by mid morning.

The latest HRRR guidance suggests showers quickly coming to an
end, much quicker than models have indicated the last couple of
days. QPF values for the remainder of the Flash Flood Watch
period, or through 12z on Thursday, indicate under one tenth of an
inch of additional rainfall is expected across eastern Arkansas.
As such, have cancelled the Watch for counties west of the
Mississippi River. More counties will likely be able to be
cleared by late morning as precipitation evades the region.

Portions of northeast Mississippi could still see up to an inch,
or even more in thunderstorms, of rain through midday as PWAT
values remain around 1.60 inches there through 18z. Otherwise,
precipitation will come to an end for the entire region as a weak
front moves west to east by the evening hours. Temperatures this
afternoon will be realized generally in the 50s area wide, though
some of NE MS could reach the lower 60s.

The front will stall just south of the region, just to begin
inching north again early on Thursday. This will keep the dry
period quite short, as precipitation will begin to overspread the
region once again by Thursday afternoon. Weak impulses embedded
in the SW flow aloft interacting with this weak front could lead
to more intense showers and a few elevated thunderstorms late on
Thursday and into Friday. Thursday temperatures will be in the
upper 40s to mid 50s.

Temperatures will vary from the mid to upper 60s south to the
upper 40s north on Friday as the stalled front bisects the
region. Rain, which could be heavy at times, will stick around for
much of the day with the front stalled and interactions with weak
impulses aloft. By early Saturday a trough has moved into the
Southern Plains, deepening a surface low over the TX and OK
Panhandles. This will enhance southerly flow across the local
region as the boundary surges north as a warm front, allowing
temperatures to warm into the low to mid 70s for much of the area
on Saturday afternoon.

With the upper trough taking a bit of a negative tilt over the
region, a few strong to severe thunderstorms still appear possible
on Saturday afternoon and evening. A front clears the region early
on Sunday, bringing an end to the precipitation. Latest QPF values
for the Thursday PM through Sunday AM precipitation is between 2
to 3.5 inches for the entire region. Further monitoring will be
necessary, given antecedent conditions, for the potential for
flooding.

Drier conditions on Sunday and Monday will give way to additional
rain chances on Tuesday as a storm system strengthens along the
Gulf Coast. Temperatures will be quite seasonable early next week.

ZDM

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFs

SHRA/isolated TSRA will continue to lift east this morning,
affecting mainly TUP in the short term. Ceilings will undergo
improvement through MVFR through early afternoon, with VFR
expected to prevail across the area by mid to late afternoon.

Much better weather expected for tonight's MEM arrival push, with
light northerly winds and VFR. May see some patchy radiational fog
affecting the rural terminals by late evening.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-
     Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
     Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

TN...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for Benton TN-Carroll-
     Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-
     Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-
     McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
424 AM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-211230-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
424 AM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through late tonight for
areas of the Mid-South east of the Mississippi River. Heavy
rainfall is expected this morning and afternoon. Up to 1.50 inches
of rain could fall, in addition to recent heavy rainfall. This
may lead to flooding, rises in area rivers, and an increased
potential for river flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Additional heavy rainfall will be possible on Friday and
Saturday. Another flood or flash flood watch may be needed.

Severe thunderstorms are also possible Saturday into Saturday
night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Saturday into Saturday night in
support of severe weather operations.

ZDM

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