River Flood Warning 50, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1124 AM CST Tue Feb 12 2019

.UPDATE...

Updated for the 18Z Aviation Discussion

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1051 AM CST Tue Feb 12 2019/

DISCUSSION...

A cold front is quickly pushing across the Mid-South. Attm the
front stretches from about Paris TN to Oxford MS. A thin line of
showers has developed along the front. These showers will
quickly push into Middle TN and AL by this afternoon. Skies will
clear from the west this afternoon and strong NW winds will
result in steady or falling temps. Updated forecast out. Adjusted
temp trends and afternoon POPs.

SJM

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 509 AM CST Tue Feb 12 2019/

Rain has finally pushed out of the western half of our forecast
area. Areas along and north of I-40 have experienced nearly 24
consecutive hours of rainfall, with precip totals ranging from 2
to 4 inches and isolated pockets of 5. Many county roads in those
areas are closed due to flooded roadways and a number of rivers
are in flood stage at this time. Even though the rainfall has
ended, rivers will likely continue to rise today and areal
flooding will stick around. The good news is that rain will
finally move out by late morning, giving those areas a break to
recover. Went ahead and cancelled the flood watch, as the main
threat of flooding rainfall is over for now. A few light rain
showers are still possible through early afternoon, but shouldn't
be enough to exacerbate current conditions.

A cold front, currently located near Little Rock, Arkansas will
push through the entire Mid-South today. Winds will shift to the
northwest and gust as high as 30 mph this afternoon. In fact, high
temperatures for today will actually take place this morning,
with falling temps throughout the afternoon hours. Skies will
slowly clear from west to east through late afternoon. After
sundown, temperatures will fall into the low to mid 30s across the
entire area.

We will finally see a break from the rain for about 36 hours or
so. Surface high pressure will build into the Mid-South from the
southwest on Wednesday and quickly slide eastward during the day.
Winds will turn around to the south and temperatures will rebound
back into the mid to upper 50s areawide on Wednesday. Dry
conditions will continue through Thursday morning.

By Thursday morning, a surface low will form to the lee side of
the Rockies and quickly traverse from Kansas to Chicago by
Thursday night. A trailing cold front will move into the area late
Thursday afternoon and eventually become orphaned over north
Mississippi early Friday morning. A few light showers may
accompany this front Thursday afternoon, but models continue to
trend drier with each successive run due to the lack of available
moisture.

The extended period will be highlighted by split flow and a rather
progressive pattern. Thus, quite a bit of uncertainty exists
through the extended forecast at this time. The first notable
weather maker will arrive Friday as a shortwave ejects eastward
across the Southern Plains. A surface low is expected to develop
and track across the Mid-South Friday night into Saturday
morning. Models are in reasonable agreement with about an inch of
rainfall across the area, but differ on temperatures and location
of subfreezing air. Went with a blend of temperatures, with the
moisture moving out before the cold air arrives, negating the
chance of a wintry mix early Saturday morning.

As quickly as the last system exits, another surface low will
track right behind it giving us another quick shot of cold rain by
Saturday night. Temperatures are expected to remain above
freezing through Sunday morning, but there is still some
uncertainty as to whether or not snow or sleet will mix in at 34
or 35 degrees. Sunday will be mostly dry as arctic high pressure
builds in from the northwest.

A more significant storm is expected to develop on Monday as a
surface lows organizes over the the Gulf of Mexico. Highs on
Monday will top out in the low to mid 40s areawide with rain
spreading northward across north Mississippi by Monday night. By
Tuesday, models are consistent with the surface low lifting out of
the Gulf of Mexico and pushing into northern Alabama during the
day. Overrunning precipitation may result in a wintry mix across
the northwest parts of the forecast area. Obviously, with this
timeframe being 7 days out, it is really too early to tell if it
will be cold enough to support any wintry weather. That being
said, the models are in very good agreement with location, timing,
and temperatures so please stay tuned.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...

Low clouds and scattered rain showers will move out of eastern
sections of the forecast area this afternoon, otherwise VFR
conditions will prevail for much of the forecast period. Winds
will be mainly from the northwest this afternoon at 15 to 20 knots
with higher gusts. Winds will diminish to 5 to 10 knots tonight
which should keep fog from developing overnight.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
524 AM CST Tue Feb 12 2019

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-131315-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
524 AM CST Tue Feb 12 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Recent heavy rainfall will result in continued areal flooding and
river flooding for areas along and north of I-40.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

AC3