River Flood Warning 20, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1159 AM CST Tue Jan 22 2019

.UPDATE...

Updated to include 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1056 AM CST Tue Jan 22 2019/

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis this morning places a surface low
over Eastern Kansas, a trailing cold front over Oklahoma and West
Texas, and a warm front extending southeast into portions of
Southwest Missouri, Central Arkansas, and Southern Mississippi. As
of 10 AM CST, temperatures across the Mid-South are in the 40s at
most locations.

Short term models including Convective Allowing Model (CAM)
solutions indicate rain chances will gradually increase across the
Mid-South this afternoon as a warm front approaches the forecast
area. Best chances for any development for rain will be
predominantly along and west of the Mississippi River this
afternoon then increasing tonight across the remainder of the
area.

In addition, surface winds are beginning to increase across the
region in response to a tightening pressure gradient. Conditions
still look somewhat favorable for a Wind Advisory across the area
tonight into Wednesday morning and perhaps for areas west of the
Mississippi River later this afternoon. However, some onset timing
questions still remain with the winds and Will continue to
monitor trends for the next couple of hours. Will adjust forecast
for timing of rain and adjust winds and other elements as needed
to account for short term trends.

Updated grids will be available shortly.

CJC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 319 AM CST Tue Jan 22 2019/

DISCUSSION...

Temperatures will continue to rise this morning thanks to
southeasterly winds ahead of a low pressure system currently
located in the Oklahoma panhandle. Current temperatures are in the
30s and will continue to rise, reaching highs in the upper 40s to
the lower 50s this afternoon. Temperatures will remain mild
this evening as winds turn around to the south and increase in
speed. A wind advisory may become needed this evening as a result.

These temperatures will likely be the warmest temperatures that
the Mid-South will see through at least Monday. The downside with
getting out and enjoying the warmer temperatures will be the
chances for warm air advection showers that will occur today. The
chances for rain will increase even more this evening as the cold
front approaches the CWA.

Temperatures will drop dramatically on Wednesday behind the front.
Highs will likely occur at 12Z(6 AM CST) for much of the area and
will drop throughout the day. Don't expect winter precipitation to
be much of an issue as most of the precipitation will end before
the colder air gets into the area changing it over.

Winter is here and it looks like it is staying for awhile as
below normal temperatures are expected for the remainder of
forecast period and looking ahead even in the 6-10 and 8-14 day
outlooks. A broad upper trof will remain over the eastern half of
the United States. Reinforcing shots of cold air will continue to
come down from Canada. The ECMWF, GFS, and Canadian all differ on
exact timing of the reinforcing shots of cold air. Thus, it is
hard to put anything higher than a 20 POP in period beyond
Wednesday. The one that looks most interesting right now in
regards to winter precipitation chances is the front that moves in
on Monday or Monday Night depending on which model is correct on
timing. All the models show a decent amount of moisture with this
particular front as the cold air is plunging into the area. Still
too far out to have any confidence at this time. Stay tuned.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
/18z TAFs/

VFR conds will begin the period...with developing MVFR/IFR
conditions tonight as rain overspreads the area. Ceilings should
remain around 3500-4000 feet through at least 00Z with scattered
light rain possible at JBR and MEM. Strong southwest winds 16-24
kts with gusts as high as 30 kts at all sites through tomorrow
morning. There is some concern about LLWS at MEM tonight as the
low level jet accelerates to 70 kts. Even if it winds don't meet
criteria, there will definitely be compression issues tonight.

Lower ceilings and rain will overspread the area after sundown.
Expect 1000 to 1500 foot ceilings areawide, with pockets of IFR
possible. Heavy rain and a wind shift will accompany a cold
frontal passage tomorrow morning at all sites reducing VSBYS.
VSBYS and CIGS will begin to improve after this TAF set as the
front exits the area.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
334 AM CST Tue Jan 22 2019

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-231200-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
334 AM CST Tue Jan 22 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Wind Advisory may be needed tonight as winds increase from the
south ahead of an approaching cold front.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

KRM