River Flood Warning 101, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1245 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for aviation discussion

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1050 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019/

UPDATE...

Convection continues this morning along the Mississippi River
north of Memphis and across portions of North Mississippi. Over
the last 20 minutes or so the convection across both areas have
begun to look a little more robust. Reintensification is expected
by this afternoon. The greatest threat for severe storms will
occur across portions of West Tennessee near the Tennessee River
and Northeast Mississippi.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /issued 528 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019/

Sufficient shear coupled with increasing CAPE amounts near 1000
j/kg this morning has prompted a tornado watch for most of the
Midsouth through noon.

JAB

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 338 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019/

DISCUSSION...

Current through today...first wave of convection is beginning to
lift north of the region early this morning. This activity was
associated with the negative trough pivoting around the current
upper low in Nebraska. Farther southwest on radar a new line of
convection was intensifying over northeast Texas. A watch has been
issued and warnings are up and verifying from the Shreveport
office. This activity is along the actual cold front and is being
well handled by the short term models. The line is forecasted to
grow both north and south and move into the Midsouth by mid
morning. Until the line arrives the severe threat early this
morning appears low. Later things will begin to ramp
up...especially east of a Paris to Jackson to Oxford line where
the airmass has been least...if not at all worked over. Coupled
with dewpoints of mid 60s advecting into this region and
lingering SRH amounts near 300 m^2/s^2...a few discrete cells with
more vigorous updrafts could evolve. Models agree on a CAPE plume
of near 750 j/kg over this zone by 18z...that may be slightly
under done if some sun can shine. Best guess for the most focused
region will once again run along Pickwick Lake south to points
east of the Natchez Trace Parkway...where a brief window for a
tornado remains if surface winds can stay backed from 180 or 190.

Despite the storm lifting into the Western Great Lakes strong
south to southwest gradient winds will continue...with the highest
gusts across northeast Arkansas and the Bootheel of Missouri. No
changes to the wind advisory are anticipated. Rainfall amounts so
far have ranged from 1-3 inches with this first round...though not
getting much help from NQA radar as actual readings have been
well underestimated. Today's activity could place another half of
an inch over that same zone. Models indicate precipitation exiting
Monroe County by sunset. After seeing temperatures in the 70s
today lows will fall into the 40s areawide tonight. West to
northwest winds will decouple across the southeastern counties
tonight...potentially allowing for patchy fog to form after
midnight. Farther north and west wind speeds will be higher.

Friday through Sunday...surface high pressure will reside over
the middle of the country for the weekend. Overall skies will be
clear to mostly clear with northwesterly breezes. Cool mornings in
the 30s will yield afternoon highs in the 50s and low 60s.

Monday through Thursday...The GFS and ECMWF show the upper jet
becoming more northerly this period as a ridge builds over the
Northern Rockies. An almost Omega block pattern may become
established. A few descending shortwaves will bring passing clouds
and perhaps a low-end threat for a light shower to the area. High
temperatures this period appear a few degrees shy of seasonal
averages...with lows remaining above freezing.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

Line of SHRAs and TSRAs moving steadily east of KTUP attm. Conds
will quickly improve to VFR over the next 30 minutes or so.
Elsewhere...VFR and very windy. SW winds at 20kt gusting to over
30kt at times especially at KJBR. Winds will diminish this
evening and gradually veer more NWly. NW winds will increase
Friday morning as an MVFR deck of stratocu pushes south into the
area.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Clay-Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-
     Poinsett-St. Francis.

MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-
     Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
     Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

TN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Benton TN-Carroll-
     Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-
     Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-
     McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
530 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-151230-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
530 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A wind advisory is in effect for the entire area through 7 PM
Thursday.

There is an slight and marginal risk for severe storms this
morning and afternoon. A Tornado Watch is in effect for a large
portion of the area. Greatest risk will be along and east of the
Mississippi River. Damaging winds will be the primary threat.
Secondary threats include localized flooding...large hail and
isolated tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather is anticipated.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this morning and afternoon.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1033 AM CDT THU MAR 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WHITEHAVEN              35.02N  90.03W
03/14/2019                   SHELBY             TN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON FENCE IN WHITEHAVEN TN, DUE TO
            NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

&&

SGW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1118 AM CDT THU MAR 14 2019

MSZ004-009-014-141645-
Tippah MS-Union MS-Prentiss MS-
1118 AM CDT THU MAR 14 2019

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 1145 AM CDT
FOR...

Southeastern Tippah County in northeastern Mississippi...
Central Union County in northeastern Mississippi...
West central Prentiss County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 1117 AM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds up to 40 mph
was located over New Albany, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Very heavy rain is also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in southeastern Tippah...central Union and west central
Prentiss Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3442 8902 3449 8906 3477 8876 3459 8855
TIME...MOT...LOC 1617Z 240DEG 49KT 3449 8898

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1144 AM CDT THU MAR 14 2019

MSZ005-009-141715-
Alcorn MS-Prentiss MS-
1144 AM CDT THU MAR 14 2019

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 1215 PM CDT
FOR...

Southeastern Alcorn County in northeastern Mississippi...
Northern Prentiss County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 1143 AM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds at least 40
mph was located over Jumpertown, or 7 miles west of Booneville,
moving northeast at 40 mph.

Very heavy rain is also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in southeastern Alcorn and northern Prentiss Counties should
monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3465 8871 3471 8872 3495 8845 3484 8836
      3476 8837 3476 8835 3474 8835 3474 8833
      3473 8833
TIME...MOT...LOC 1643Z 235DEG 33KT 3469 8869

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1229 PM CDT THU MAR 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     GLEN                    34.87N  88.50W
03/14/2019                   ALCORN             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FUNNEL CLOUD SPOTTED IN GLEN NEAR HIGHWAY 72.

&&

SJM

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