Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
343 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Early morning surface map showed a warm front over southern MS,
south of a Jackson to Meridian line. However, a 925mb warm front
extended much further north in to north MS, roughly along a
Greenwood to Tupelo line. Persistent training of moderate to
isolated heavy rainfall cores were focused along this elevated
front, steered by midlevel winds parallel to the front and aided
by divergence aloft, associated the right entrance region of a
250mb jet core.

Short-range CAM consensus depicts a slight reduction in rain
rates later today, but only slight northward movement of the main
convective focus. Flash flooding will remain the primary concern
over north MS.

By this evening, surface warm front will accelerate north, lifting
to near I-40 by midnight, in advance of a closed upper low
lifting into the southern high plains. This upper low will lift
into eastern KS Saturday afternoon, taking a bit of a more neutral
orientation than earlier model guidance depicted. As such, the
surface low will track a little closer to the parent upper low,
across northern MO and southern IA toward late afternoon Saturday.

NAM progs MUCAPES ranging from 1500 J/KG over north MS to around
1000 J/KG over northwest TN Saturday afternoon. This will likely
be limited some by prefrontal rainfall, but still sufficient when
combined with directional shear to support bowing thunderstorm
segments. Beyond flash flooding, main concern remains wind. Given
the saturated soils, it's not out of the question to expect
downed trees with sub-severe thunderstorm wind gusts. Beyond wind,
a brief tornado or two will be possible, embedded in the convective
line. Midlevel lapses below 6C/km suggest only a marginal large
hail threat.

Showers and thunderstorms should exit east of the TN River by
early Saturday evening, overtaken by a eastward-advancing midlevel
dry slot.

Dry and seasonal weather to prevail Sunday through Tuesday.
Thereafter, medium range 00Z model consensus decreases
sufficiently to lower forecast confidence by Wednesday. With a
broad low- amplitude trof likely over the eastern third of the
CONUS, GFS- progged rain chances for the mid to late week periods
appear a bit overdone. In any case, there does not appear to be
any systems that would present additional heavy rain potential,
suggesting area rivers may have an opportunity to recover back to
near normal flows.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF cycle

Low clouds will continue to spread across the entire forecast area
overnight. Rain showers will move across the forecast area for
much of the forecast period with some isolated thunderstorms
expected over portions of northeast Mississippi. Winds will be
mainly from the northeast at around 10 knots for much of the
forecast period.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening for Crittenden-Cross-
     Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-St. Francis.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening for Pemiscot.

MS...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-
     Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
     Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

TN...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening for Benton TN-Carroll-
     Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-
     Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-
     McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
905 AM CST Thu Feb 21 2019

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-221715-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
905 AM CST Thu Feb 21 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A flash flood watch is in effect for this afternoon and tonight
across a large portion of the Midsouth. Rainfall amounts of up to
2 inches will be possible through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The Flash Flood Watch continues through Saturday evening for
areas along and south of the I-40 corridor. Multiple rounds of
heavy rain will result in an additional 2-4 inches of rainfall.
This will likely lead to additional flooding of low-lying and poor
drainage areas, as well as local and rivers and creeks.

A strong cold front will move across the area on Saturday. Strong
to severe thunderstorms will be possible with damaging winds as
the primary threat. A few tornadoes will be possible as well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested on Saturday. Additionally,
please relay any flash flooding reports and rainfall amounts to
the National Weather Service in Memphis.

JAB