Flash Flood Warning 45, NWS Memphis, TN

593 
WGUS74 KMEG 260253
FFSMEG

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
953 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

TNC005-017-053-077-113-260302-
/O.EXP.KMEG.FF.W.0045.000000T0000Z-190826T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Henderson TN-Gibson TN-Benton TN-Carroll TN-Madison TN-
953 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN HENDERSON...SOUTHEASTERN
GIBSON...SOUTHWESTERN BENTON...CARROLL AND NORTHEASTERN MADISON
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1000 PM CDT...

The heavy rain has ended. Minor flooding may still be possible and 
an areal flood warning has been issued. Please continue to heed any 
remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3613 8841 3612 8819 3584 8820 3566 8885
      3590 8879

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
557 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

.DISCUSSION... /issued 317 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019/

A fairly active radar will only likely become more active over
the next hour or two, then storms should begin to decrease in
coverage and intensity late this afternoon. Storms are moving a
bit faster than I expected to see earlier this morning, reducing
the threat of flooding across the area. Nevertheless with
Precipitable water values around 2 inches locally heavy rainfall
is possible and if multiple storms track across the same location
flooding is possible. 20-30 mph wind is also possible from
thunderstorms this afternoon. The threat of severe storms looks
minimal. Most high temperatures across the Midsouth should be in
the middle 80s, but much of the area should get some relief from
rain cooled air and or thunderstorms outflow, knocking
temperatures back down into the 70s.

A few showers may linger through the night with additional
redevelopment tomorrow as temperatures warm back into the middle
80s. It is very hard to predict coverage of storms this time of
year with the lack of any well defined surface boundaries, but at
this time it looks like coverage should be as significant as
today. Highs should be in the middle 80s once again.

Tuesday, a cold front is expected to approach from the North.
Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected
ahead and along this feature. The threat of severe storms looks
minimal. It doesn't look significantly cooler Wednesday through
the remainder of the work week, but a drier airmass will move into
the region. Some dew points may drop into the upper 50s, but most
of us will be in the 60s. Highs will remain in the middle to
upper 80s. However, those lower dew points along with North wind
will make conditions feel cooler. A few showers may linger
Wednesday in North Mississippi, but Thursday and Friday look dry
as surface high pressure settles over the area with weak Northwest
flow aloft.

For the weekend, guidance is in poor agreement. The ECMWF is
wetter featuring a deeper trough over the region with the GFS
maintaining weak Northwest flow. Will feature slight chance pops
for now with near normal temperatures.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF Set

Convection has developed across much of the CWA. The only TAF
site that might escape being impacted this evening is KMEM. HRRR
shows convection eventually shifting to areas of West Tennessee
near the Tennessee River and Northeast Mississippi tomorrow. Will
continue with vicinity wording at KMKL and KTUP for much of the
TAF period. MVFR CIGS will spread over the entire Mid-South by
05-06Z. CIGS will be gradually lift through the day. Winds will
become light and variable this evening. Winds tomorrow will be
from the SSE at 5-10 KTS.

KRM

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
333 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-262245-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
333 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Locally heavy rainfall will be possible across the Mid-South today
and tonight. This may result in minor flooding of urban and other
poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

A few strong storms will be possible on Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
538 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

MSZ009-014>016-252330-
Pontotoc MS-Union MS-Lee MS-Prentiss MS-
538 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR...

Northeastern Pontotoc County in northeastern Mississippi...
Eastern Union County in northeastern Mississippi...
Lee County in northeastern Mississippi...
Southwestern Prentiss County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 538 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds at least 40 mph
was located near Tupelo, moving north at 15 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northeastern Pontotoc...eastern Union...Lee and
southwestern Prentiss Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3417 8862 3416 8895 3460 8906 3460 8855
TIME...MOT...LOC 2238Z 191DEG 13KT 3430 8878