Flash Flood Warning 41, NWS Memphis, TN

346 
WGUS74 KMEG 041948
FFSMEG

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
248 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019

MSC033-TNC157-042215-
/O.CON.KMEG.FF.W.0041.000000T0000Z-190804T2215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DeSoto MS-Shelby TN-
248 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN DESOTO AND SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTIES...

At 246 PM CDT, Doppler Radar estimates up to 2 inches of rain has 
occurred over the past hour. Thunderstorms are diminishing across 
the warning area however runoff will continue along with the threat 
of flash flooding. 

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Bartlett, Southaven, Collierville, Germantown, Olive Branch, Horn
Lake, Cordova, Memphis, Southeast Memphis, Downtown Memphis,
Southwest Memphis, Whitehaven, Midtown Memphis, Lynchburg, Lenow,
Parkway Village, White Station, Handy Corner, Capleville and Plum
Point.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3513 9007 3514 9006 3515 9007 3519 9007
      3519 8970 3499 8969 3499 8972 3494 8972
      3494 9008

$$

775 
WGUS74 KMEG 042045
FFSMEG

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
345 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019

MSC033-TNC157-042054-
/O.CAN.KMEG.FF.W.0041.000000T0000Z-190804T2215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DeSoto MS-Shelby TN-
345 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN DESOTO AND SOUTHEASTERN
SHELBY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3513 9007 3514 9006 3515 9007 3519 9007
      3519 8970 3499 8969 3499 8972 3494 8972
      3494 9008

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1230 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for aviation discussion

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 341 AM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019/

There are a few light showers on the radar early this morning
widely scattered across the Midsouth with a little patchy fog,
mainly near the Tennessee River. Skies are mostly cloudy with
light wind. Temperatures are mainly in the low to middle 70s and
probably won't cool more than another degree or two prior to
sunrise.

A broad ridge remains in place across the Western US with a trough
over and East of the Great Lakes. North to Northwest flow is in
place from the Northern Plains across most of the Mississippi
River Valley. A weak shortwave tracking through this pattern looks
like it will be just enough to enhance showers and thunderstorms
across the Midsouth today, especially when coupled with the
instability provided by afternoon heating. Guidance suggests the
highest instability, over 2,000 Joules of CAPE, will be over West
TN this afternoon, with generally 1,500 to 2,000 J/KG elsewhere.
Storms will likely diminish in both coverage and intensity after
sunset. No severe weather is expected, although any thunderstorm
this time of year has the potential to produce strong wind,
frequent lightning and locally heavy rain. Temperatures may be
held in check a bit this afternoon due to clouds and rain, but
given the fact that we had at least a few showers and clouds
around yesterday and managed to exceed 90 degrees across most of
the area, I still think most of the region will approach 90
degrees.

Flow aloft will become more Northwesterly early next week. Monday
and Tuesday should be a bit drier, but isolated to scattered
afternoon thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Any weak
disturbances tracking through this flow could enhance our chance
of rain once again. Late in the work week, it looks like a weak
cold front will approach the Midsouth, perhaps stalling along the
Interstate 40 corridor over the weekend. If this scenario pans
out, we could see enhanced rain chances again ahead of and along
the boundary Friday through the weekend. Weak surface high
pressure should help suppress convection until peak heating.
High temperatures should remain near to slightly below normal.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered TSRAs this afternoon into early this evening otherwise
mainly VFR conds. Fog is possible overnight and its intensity will
be dictated by where the rain falls so for now went 4-6SM in TAF
sites. Winds will be mainly light outside of TSRAs...generally NE
5-7 kts diminishing to below 5 kts tonight. Expect less areal
coverage of TSRAs Monday afternoon.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
355 AM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-051100-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
355 AM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
143 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019

MSZ001-TNZ088-041930-
DeSoto MS-Shelby TN-
143 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 230 PM CDT
FOR...

Northeastern DeSoto County in northwestern Mississippi...
Southeastern Shelby County in western Tennessee...

At 143 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located over Southeast Memphis,
or near Germantown. This storm was nearly stationary.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northeastern DeSoto and southeastern Shelby Counties should
monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3500 9000 3515 8997 3516 8973 3493 8978
TIME...MOT...LOC 1843Z 277DEG 1KT 3509 8990