Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Memphis, TN

379 
WGUS74 KMEG 111401
FFSMEG

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
801 AM CST MON FEB 11 2019

ARC031-093-111-MOC069-155-111411-
/O.CAN.KMEG.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190211T1815Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Craighead AR-Poinsett AR-Mississippi AR-Pemiscot MO-Dunklin MO-
801 AM CST MON FEB 11 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CRAIGHEAD...POINSETT...MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHERN PEMISCOT AND SOUTHEASTERN DUNKLIN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

Flash flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please 
continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3588 9103 3597 9039 3600 9037 3613 8959
      3600 8973 3591 8965 3589 8977 3582 8970
      3573 8996 3567 8994 3567 8986 3564 8985
      3559 8996 3552 8991 3555 9004 3544 9003
      3544 9007 3548 9008 3544 9013 3544 9104

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
551 AM CST Mon Feb 11 2019

.UPDATE...

Updated to include 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 AM CST Mon Feb 11 2019/

DISCUSSION...

Early morning temperatures range from the middle 50s in Northeast
Mississippi to the middle 40s in Northeast Arkansas under cloudy
skies. We will begin the work week with mild temperatures and lots
of rain, especially North of the Interstate 40 corridor. A flood
advisory remains in effect for the Missouri Bootheel, Northeast
Arkansas and much of Northwest Tennessee. PW values between 2 and
2.5 inches, or nearly 3 standard deviations above normal will
result in heavy...but localized heavy rainfall. Intensity of the
rain will increase with time as a broad trough approaches the
Mississippi River Valley this afternoon and tonight. This feature
does not look as potent as it did in previous model runs, now
maintaining a neutral tilt as it approaches the region. As a
result, the threat of severe thunderstorms has diminished. The
Storm Prediction Center has removed all of the Midsouth from their
marginal risk for severe storms. Heavy rainfall, enhanced by an
approaching 130+Kt jet streak will be the primary threat. Portions
of Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel and Northwest
Tennessee have already received over one inch of rain. Rainfall
rates over the next 36 hours or so may exceed one half on an inch
per hour at times especially tonight into early Tuesday as the
showers become convectively enhanced.

Improving conditions are expected tomorrow as the trough axis
shifts East of the Mississippi River. We will be under northwest
flow midweek with surface high pressure. As a result, dry
conditions are expected Wednesday with near to slightly above
normal temperatures.

Strong frontogenesis is expected in the Central Plains early
Thursday. A surface low is expected to track from Kansas into the
Ohio Valley Thursday with a trailing cold front approaching the
Mississippi River Valley Thursday evening. Rain showers look
likely again ahead of the front. Return flow ahead of the front
looks limited, so the threat of strong or severe storms looks
minimal at this time. However, due to the current expected
rainfall over the next couple of days, additional rain late in the
work week could result in additional flooding issues.

Saturday looks dry and cooler. Sunday into Monday, guidance brings
yet another round of precipitation into the Midsouth. Not prepared
to jump on board with likely pops for day 7+ yet, but it appears
our wet Winter will continue.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/12z TAFs/

A mix of MVFR and IFR conds to start the period...with IFR and
LIFR conds to follow. The trend will be low VSBYs and CIGs today
as rain intensifies through the morning and into the afternoon
hours. Thunderstorms are expected near sundown as the main upper
level energy swings through, however coverage will not be
widespread only warranting a VCTS. IFR and LIFR conds will likely
continue through the end of the period.

Winds will remain between 6 and 9 kts this afternoon...with
slightly stronger winds and occasional gusts near TUP.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through this evening for Clay-Craighead-Greene-
     Mississippi-Poinsett.

MO...Flood Watch through this evening for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...None.
TN...Flood Watch through this evening for Benton TN-Carroll-Crockett-
     Dyer-Gibson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Obion-Weakley.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
417 AM CST Mon Feb 11 2019

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-121230-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
417 AM CST Mon Feb 11 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A flood watch is in effect for areas north of Interstate 40.
Heavy rainfall may cause flooding concerns for area rivers and
low-lying flood prone areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

A flood watch is in effect for areas north of Interstate 40
into Monday night. Heavy rainfall may cause flooding concerns for
area rivers and low-lying flood prone areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.