Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
529 PM CST Wed Feb 6 2019

.UPDATE...

Updated to include 00z aviation discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 PM CST Wed Feb 6 2019/

DISCUSSION...21Z surface analysis places a quasi-stationary
boundary from the Ohio River Valley back through Southern Missouri
and into the Red River Valley of Oklahoma and Texas. Regional
WSR-88D radar trends over the past few hours have indicated
scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms
stretching from Middle Tennessee back through Eastern Oklahoma.
Surface based instability has been limited today due to the
occasional convective activity and a plume of low level moisture
below southwest flow aloft bringing ample moisture and cloud cover
to much of the Mid-South. As of 3 PM CST, temperatures across the
forecast area range from the 60s north of I-40 and 70s south.
Strong to severe thunderstorm potential tonight into Thursday
morning, and strong south winds overnight into Thursday are the
predominant forecast concerns in this afternoon's forecast.

Short term models including Convective Allowing Model (CAM)
solutions indicate showers and embedded thunderstorms will
continue across areas along and north of I-40 this evening and
gradually shift north towards Southern Missouri and Western
Kentucky overnight. Some questions remain with respect to the
severe thunderstorm potential as better forcing remains west of
the area with weak southwest mid-level flow aloft. Model trends
suggest surface based instability will continue to weaken with
time tonight despite somewhat decent mid-level lapse rates, and
some shear aloft. A few strong to perhaps a severe thunderstorm or
two will remain possible tonight with damaging winds remaining the
predominant severe thunderstorm threat. Precipitable Water values
approaching 2 inches will support a localized threat for heavy
rainfall across areas especially north of I-40 tonight and into
the remainder of the area on Thursday.

A tightening pressure gradient associated with a developing
surface low along the front will result in south winds increasing
to 20-25 mph along and west of the Mississippi River overnight
into Thursday afternoon. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the
aforementioned area from 3 AM CST until 3 PM CST Thursday
afternoon.

Rain chances are expected to diminish Thursday night as much
colder and drier air filters into the Mid-South. Lows Thursday
night are expected to fall back into the 20s to lower 30s with
highs on Friday in the 30s to lower 40s.

Long term models indicate precipitation chances will return for
the latter half of the weekend into early next week as a warm
front develops and moves slowly north across and a trailing cold
front moves through the Lower Mississippi Valley towards the
middle of next week. Heavy rainfall may be possible during this
period. Some timing differences between the models for late
weekend into early next week have resulted in a slightly lower
confidence forecast until models come into better agreement.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
00z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions begin the period, but will gradually deteriorate to
MVFR over the next few hours. This due to a quasi stationary
surface boundary currently along I-40. As this feature lifts north
overnight showers will be possible, along with some IFR CIGS.

Southerly winds become more westerly into the afternoon as a cold
front approaches. Some VCTS will be possible with this near JBR,
else RA likely at MKL and MEM through the end of the period. Winds
will become gusty along and behind the front, with MVFR CIGS
prevailing to end the period.

ZDM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM CST Thursday for Clay-Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-
     Poinsett-St. Francis.

MO...Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM CST Thursday for Dunklin-
     Pemiscot.

MS...Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM CST Thursday for Coahoma-DeSoto-
     Panola-Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tunica.

TN...Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM CST Thursday for Dyer-Lake-
     Lauderdale-Obion-Shelby-Tipton.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
350 PM CST Wed Feb 6 2019

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-080000-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
350 PM CST Wed Feb 6 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Periods of heavy rain is possible mainly north of I-40 tonight.
Showers and thunderstorms will move across the region tonight
with the heavier amounts along the Kentucky and Missouri borders.
Flooding of low-lying and flood prone areas is possible.

A few strong to severe storms are possible this evening. Damaging
winds will be the main threat.

Strong south winds will develop across the western counties late
tonight. A wind advisory remains in effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Periods of heavy rain is possible mainly north of I-40 Thursday.
Showers and thunderstorms will move across the region resulting in
1.5 to 3 inches of total rainfall with the heavier amounts along
the Kentucky and Missouri borders. Flooding of low-lying and flood
prone areas is possible.

A few strong to severe storms are possible Thursday morning into
the mid-afternoon. Damaging winds will be the main threat.

Strong south winds will veer westerly behind a cold front Thursday
A wind advisory remains in effect.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible this evening.