Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
235 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Persistence will be the rule for the remainder of this week and
perhaps through the weekend as well. Not much change to the
previous forecast with afternoon temperatures expected to be in
the 100s for many areas and afternoon/evening thunderstorms near
the mountain areas.

We will remain under upper ridging during this time with a surface
low pressure trough extending south through the higher terrain. A
mid level thermal ridge will remain anchored near the region so
continued above normal high temperatures can be expected through
the weekend. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible
each afternoon/evening today through Friday due to a combination
of afternoon heating, sufficient moisture, and weak disturbances
moving overhead in light easterly flow aloft. Best chances will be
near the mountains however most activity should remain west of
the Pecos River Valley. Not expecting any severe weather however
frequent lightning and gusty winds are likely to occur with any
thunderstorm. Rain chances decrease for the weekend but an
isolated storm or two near the mountains is not out of the
question.

Monday, the upper ridge will shift west and amplify over the
western ConUS as an upper trough swings through the Great Lakes
region. Forecast models show a cold front moving south into the
area Monday night or Tuesday morning. If the front makes it this
far south, we could be looking at increased rain chances/cloud
cover for most areas and high temperatures in the low to mid 90s
through mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     77 100  76 101 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       74 102  74 103 /  20  10  20  10
Dryden                         77  99  76 101 /  20  10  10   0
Fort Stockton                  75 100  75 101 /  20  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 71  94  71  95 /  30  20  20  20
Hobbs                          73 100  72 101 /  20  10  10  10
Marfa                          64  92  65  93 /  30  30  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           76 101  77 101 /  10   0  10   0
Odessa                         76 101  77 102 /  10   0  10   0
Wink                           77 104  78 104 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

70/27

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
209 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-181915-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
209 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019 /109 PM MDT Wed Jul 17 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening
over the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains as well as across the plains
of southeastern New Mexico. The main threats with any thunderstorm
will be lightning and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon and evening through
the remainder of this week and weekend. Best chances look to remain
over the mountains and adjacent plains. The main threat with any
thunderstorm will continue to be lightning and gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
419 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

NMZ028-TXZ273-172200-
Eddy County Plains NM-Eastern Culberson County TX-
419 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL EDDY AND
NORTHEASTERN CULBERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT/400 PM MDT/...

At 418 PM CDT/318 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms near Whites City. These storms were nearly stationary.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible.

Locations impacted include...
Carlsbad, Whites City, Carlsbad Caverns National Park and Cavern City
Air Terminal.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3241 10450 3238 10425 3178 10406 3152 10409
      3173 10453
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 036DEG 1KT 3201 10437

29

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
421 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

TXZ075-277>279-172200-
Pecos TX-Central Brewster County TX-Davis Mountains TX-
Davis Mountains Foothills TX-
421 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN PECOS...NORTHWESTERN
BREWSTER AND EASTERN JEFF DAVIS COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 421 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms west
of Fort Stockton, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Stockton, Marathon, Fort Stockton-Pecos County Airport, Elephant
Mountain, Sierra Madera, Firestone Test Track and Elephant Mountain
Wildlife Management Area.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 228 and 267.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3118 10318 3084 10267 3045 10285 2999 10355
      3094 10341
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 220DEG 9KT 3095 10308

29

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
512 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

TXZ075-278-279-172300-
Pecos TX-Central Brewster County TX-Davis Mountains Foothills TX-
512 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN PECOS AND NORTH
CENTRAL BREWSTER COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

At 512 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 21
miles northeast of Marathon, or 32 miles south of Fort Stockton,
moving southeast at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sierra Madera.

LAT...LON 3038 10328 3071 10295 3049 10249 3020 10305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 305DEG 22KT 3043 10297

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
413 PM MDT Wed Jul 17 2019

NMZ028-172300-
Eddy County Plains NM-
413 PM MDT Wed Jul 17 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL EDDY COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM
MDT...

At 413 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Avalon, or 11 miles north of Carlsbad. This storm was nearly
stationary.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Carlsbad, Avalon, Carlsbad North, Lake Avalon and Living Desert State
Park.

LAT...LON 3252 10436 3266 10423 3260 10402 3235 10423
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 282DEG 3KT 3256 10424