Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
218 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge remains over the area but a trough moving off the West
Coast will cross the Rockies and move onto the plains Friday.  As
the lead portion of this trough moves east models redevelop the
backside into a trough over the Rockies this weekend.  This next
trough will swing east Monday.

Temps are noticeably warmer today and have climbed into the 80s.
Readings will be even warmer on friday with 90s along the Pecos and
and pushing 100 along portions of the Rio Grande.  A cold front
blows through Saturday knocking temps down well below normal... have
increased wind speeds with Fropa should be pretty gusty.  Highs
Saturday will be in the 60s for most of the area with 70s south and
on Sunday widespread 50s expected. These temps expected to slowly
recovery Monday and Tuesday with 80s expected again by next
Wednesday.

The dryline has set up today up across the western portion of the
area as of 19z and is expected to set up Friday along the eastern
edge of the CWA.  Have had some storms fire up over the Davis Mtns
so extended low pops into the evening.  Storms tomorrow should be
east of the area.  Eta does develop some precip along the front
Saturday so went ahead and threw in some showers along and south of
the Pecos.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A warming and drying trend will continue into Friday. Min RHs below
10 percent will be common for areas west of a Seminole to Midland to
Rankin line as afternoon temperatures warm into the upper 80s to
near 90. 20 foot winds will generally remain around 10-15 mph for
most areas however higher wind speeds look likely for the Guadalupe
Mountains, perhaps around 20-25 mph. ERCs remain below normal for
this areas but given the critical weather conditions, think at least
marginally critical fire weather conditions will be had. Initial
attack fires look to be the main concern through the afternoon
hours. Elevated fire weather conditions can be expected across the
southern New Mexico plains. A Fire Weather Watch will remain in
effect for the Guadalupe Mountains Friday afternoon and evening.
Overnight RH recovery tonight will range from poor in and near the
mountains to excellent across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans
Pecos. A cold front will move through early Saturday morning with
much improved RHs in its wake.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     57  88  48  59 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       52  88  47  61 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         60  92  57  72 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  59  88  51  63 /  10   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 55  77  46  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          52  84  44  56 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          45  80  43  62 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           58  89  49  60 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         56  88  49  61 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           55  91  48  62 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

27/72

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
203 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2019

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-291915-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
203 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2019 /103 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, mainly near
the Davis Mountains and eastward toward the Pecos River Valley. Any
storms that do develop will be capable of producing frequent
lightning, hail, gusty winds, and brief, heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Critical fire weather conditions will be possible in the Guadalupe
Mountains Friday afternoon and evening.  A Fire Weather Watch is in
effect.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

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