Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
235 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Another day, another round of scattered severe thunderstorms are
expected to develop this afternoon and evening. Current
radar/satellite already shows convection forming between the Pecos
River and Davis Mountains. MLCAPE is moderate but SBCAPE is
impressive at greater than 3KJ/Kg. 0-6km shear is 30-35kts which
is somewhat weak though early radar returns are showing tilt so
there probably is enough present for severe storms. Models show
the entire dryline getting active this afternoon with storms
developing from the Big Bend to the central Permian Basin and
slowly moving east.

Tomorrow and Tuesday show no real change with the dryline
remaining active thanks to west-southwesterly upper flow and ample
low level moisture convergence. Tuesday may be the greatest risk
for severe weather as a deep upper trough moves into the Four
Corners region. Upper winds will back from a much more southerly
direction and the approach of an upper jet will increase
divergence, instability, and shear aloft. The arrival of the jet
lags max heating which could be a factor in storm areal coverage.

The trough moves into the Central Plains Wednesday bringing the
one day this week that there will be dry weather with no rain
chances. Thursday a cold front arrives bringing colder
temperatures and more rain chances. Thankfully, a stable airmass
behind the cold front will eliminate a severe weather risk for a
few days with isentropic lift producing light rain and rain
showers with perhaps a few thunderstorms returning by the end of
the week. Temperatures behind the front will be below normal for
this time of year and slow to warm due to a second low pressure
system that only slowly moves across the Desert Southwest
providing ample clouds and easterly low level winds.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     63  85  64  85 /  30  20  30  20
Carlsbad                       58  93  59  88 /   0  10  10   0
Dryden                         65  84  66  87 /  40  40  30  20
Fort Stockton                  62  88  64  88 /  30  40  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 60  85  59  80 /   0  10   0   0
Hobbs                          57  88  59  86 /  10  20  10  10
Marfa                          54  85  51  85 /  20  30  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           63  86  64  87 /  20  20  20  10
Odessa                         62  87  64  87 /  20  20  20  10
Wink                           62  92  63  91 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

99/10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
220 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-061930-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
220 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019 /120 PM MDT Sun May 5 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a chance of severe thunderstorms across parts of the area
for this afternoon and tonight. Large hail and damaging winds will
be possible with these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the
area Monday and Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible this afternoon.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
348 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

TXZ067-075-274-052115-
Pecos TX-Reeves County Plains TX-Ward TX-
348 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL PECOS...EASTERN
REEVES AND EASTERN WARD COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

At 348 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles west of Grandfalls, or 18 miles southwest of Monahans, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Monahans, Thorntonville, Grandfalls, Wickett, Royalty, Coyanosa and
Roy Hurd Memorial Airport.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 71 and 79.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3135 10325 3140 10319 3149 10313 3162 10295
      3143 10277 3137 10277 3123 10299 3119 10308
      3130 10309
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 238DEG 48KT 3137 10306

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
408 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

TXZ075-274-052130-
Pecos TX-Reeves County Plains TX-
408 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN PECOS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
REEVES COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 407 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles southeast of Saragosa, or 33 miles west of Fort Stockton,
moving northeast at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of western Pecos and
south central Reeves Counties.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 218 and 232.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
southwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3080 10347 3099 10358 3104 10335 3089 10332
      3081 10329
TIME...MOT...LOC 2107Z 238DEG 49KT 3093 10345

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
409 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

TXZ276-281-052145-
Presidio Valley TX-Marfa Plateau TX-
409 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PRESIDIO COUNTY
UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

At 409 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 18
miles northwest of Candelaria, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Presidio County.

LAT...LON 3059 10482 3055 10463 3031 10457 3026 10474
      3026 10475 3027 10475 3028 10476 3030 10476
      3035 10482 3036 10481 3039 10486 3042 10485
      3044 10487 3050 10487
TIME...MOT...LOC 2109Z 215DEG 8KT 3039 10481

10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
411 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

TXZ075-274-277-278-052200-
Pecos TX-Reeves County Plains TX-Davis Mountains TX-
Davis Mountains Foothills TX-
411 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN PECOS...SOUTH CENTRAL
REEVES AND NORTHEASTERN JEFF DAVIS COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 411 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Balmorhea State Park, or 19 miles north of Fort Davis, moving east at
10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Balmorhea, Balmorhea Lake, Balmorhea State Park, Toyahvale and Star
Mountain.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 212 and 217.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
southwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3077 10393 3095 10394 3101 10359 3079 10347
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 265DEG 11KT 3087 10386

HC