Alert archive / Texas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2019

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

May 2, 2019Pecos County, Terrell County, Texas

NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 2, 2019, 6:41 PM CDT for Pecos County, Terrell County, Texas. It was in force for 49 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: May 2, 2019, 6:41 PM CDT (23:41 UTC)
Expired: May 2, 2019, 7:30 PM CDT
In force: 49 min
Issued by: NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.5 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Pecos County, TX, Terrell County, TX

The radar

The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 158 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
May 2, 7:05 PM CDT	HAIL 1	37 Se Fort Stockton, TX

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 24 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 2, 11:55 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 11.7 hours before the alert went out and 159 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1678 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -137 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1526 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 38 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 49 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.1
Supercell composite: 1.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

834 
WUUS54 KMAF 022341
SVRMAF
TXC371-443-030030-
/O.NEW.KMAF.SV.W.0072.190502T2341Z-190503T0030Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
641 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

The National Weather Service in Midland has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Central Pecos County in southwestern Texas...
  Northwestern Terrell County in southwestern Texas...

* Until 730 PM CDT.

* At 641 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located in open country 
  30 miles west of Sheffield, moving east at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
           damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
           wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
  central Pecos and northwestern Terrell Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3012 10221 3052 10284 3084 10242 3084 10223
      3072 10196
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 239DEG 49KT 3065 10234 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

12

1 follow-up statement

225 
WWUS54 KMAF 022356
SVSMAF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
656 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

TXC371-443-030030-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0072.000000T0000Z-190503T0030Z/
Pecos TX-Terrell TX-
656 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL PECOS AND NORTHWESTERN TERRELL COUNTIES...

At 655 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 31 miles west of
Sheffield, moving south at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
central Pecos and northwestern Terrell Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm is producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy
structure and stay away from windows.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3012 10221 3052 10284 3084 10242 3084 10223
      3072 10196
TIME...MOT...LOC 2355Z 241DEG 32KT 3063 10235 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

12

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 2, 5:53 PM CDT, 48 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 2, 5:53 PM CDT, 48 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
553 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

.DISCUSSION...

See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly east to southeast winds are expected through the TAF
period with prevailing or tempo MVFR ceilings expected to
develop tonight at HOB, KINK, KMAF and continue into mid
Friday morning. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected
across mainly through the period but confidence was not high
enough to include at any terminal at this time. Will continue to
monitor.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 304 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Current sfc obs show the well advertised cold front moving south
through the CWA. Progression has slowed over the last couple hours
and it currently extends over the far southeast Permian Basin
through the Lower Trans Pecos. There is also a sfc dryline that
extends roughly from the Davis/Glass Mtns toward the SSW into
Presidio County. The main focus for convection this afternoon into
early tonight will be across the Lower Trans Pecos, Stockton
Plateau, and Big Bend areas where a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is
in effect until 7PM CDT. CAPE values here are in excess of 3000
J/KG with effective shear 40-50 kts, and 0-3 km lapse rates of 7-8
deg C/km. The main threats will be very large hail, damaging wind
gusts, and maybe a tornado along the frontal boundary. Storms
should begin to weaken after sunset, but kept severe in grids
through 03Z in case convection continues for a few more hours.

Short-term models show veering sfc winds by early tomorrow
as a 500 mb sw trough moves across the forecast area. Included
likely PoPs over the south and eastern portions of the CWA
where 12K NAM and NAM NEST show a cluster of showers and
storms will progress from W to E throughout the day. High
temps will remain cooler over the north and eastern zones.
Another front will arrive sometime tomorrow evening, although
timing is still in question. GFS is slower on frontal progression
while NAM and ECMWF is much quicker. Showers and storms are
possible along the frontal boundary late tomorrow night into
Saturday morning. Temperatures should rebound a bit on Saturday
as the sfc front lifts out of the region.

Warmer temperatures will return Sunday into mid next week as
sfc winds become more southerly. There will be a chance of
t-storms along the dryline each day as rich moisture continues
to advect into the CWA ahead of an approaching upper low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     60  75  56  77 /  40  60  30  10
Carlsbad                       58  85  55  83 /  20  30  10  20
Dryden                         65  83  61  83 /  60  70  30  20
Fort Stockton                  62  81  57  83 /  40  60  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 59  79  52  81 /  10  20  10  10
Hobbs                          56  76  51  78 /  20  40  20  20
Marfa                          50  82  45  83 /  20  30  10  20
Midland Intl Airport           60  79  55  80 /  40  60  20  20
Odessa                         60  79  56  80 /  40  60  20  20
Wink                           60  83  57  83 /  40  50  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

99/99/12

Hazardous weather outlook, May 2, 2:38 PM CDT, 4 hours 3 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
238 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-031945-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
238 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019 /138 PM MDT Thu May 2 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening, especially south of I-20, and across the far southeastern
Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, and Big Bend Area. Large to very
large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado are all
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Thunderstorms are possible the next few days, especially across the
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible this afternoon.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 2, 4:01 PM CDT, 2 hours 40 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
401 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

TXZ075-082-022145-
Pecos TX-Terrell TX-
401 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL PECOS AND NORTH
CENTRAL TERRELL COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

At 400 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Sheffield, moving east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sheffield.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 315 and 327.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
southwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3062 10199 3080 10205 3087 10186 3083 10185
      3080 10183 3076 10184 3074 10181 3070 10181
      3068 10178 3066 10176
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 254DEG 19KT 3074 10194

HC

Local storm report, May 2, 5:19 PM CDT, 1 hour 22 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
519 PM CDT THU MAY 2 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     HAIL             1 E SHEFFIELD           30.69N 101.80W
05/02/2019  E1.00 INCH       Pecos              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MATT.SALERNO

Local storm report, May 2, 5:26 PM CDT, 1 hour 15 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
526 PM CDT THU MAY 2 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     HAIL             SHEFFIELD               30.69N 101.82W
05/02/2019  E1.50 INCH       PECOS              TX   PUBLIC

&&

MATT.SALERNO

Local storm report, May 2, 6:08 PM CDT, 33 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
608 PM CDT THU MAY 2 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0557 PM     HAIL             SHEFFIELD               30.69N 101.82W
05/02/2019  E1.75 INCH       PECOS              TX   PUBLIC

&&

MATT.SALERNO

Special weather statement, May 2, 6:09 PM CDT, 32 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
609 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

TXZ276-279-282-022345-
Central Brewster County TX-Lower Brewster County TX-Marfa Plateau TX-
609 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL BREWSTER AND
SOUTHEASTERN PRESIDIO COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

At 608 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 21
miles north of Terlingua, or 25 miles north of Lajitas, moving
east at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of west central
Brewster and southeastern Presidio Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
southwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 2939 10379 2939 10381 2972 10391 2973 10390
      2973 10391 2988 10348 2955 10327 2934 10379
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 239DEG 49KT 2962 10369

12

Special weather statement, May 2, 6:16 PM CDT, 25 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
616 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

TXZ075-082-022345-
Pecos TX-Terrell TX-
616 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN PECOS AND
NORTHWESTERN TERRELL COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

At 614 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
developing 5 miles south of Bakersfield. The storms were nearly
stationary.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Bakersfield.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 290 and 318.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through
flooded roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
southwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3015 10232 3049 10288 3101 10226 3097 10202
      3075 10194 3060 10197
TIME...MOT...LOC 2314Z 239DEG 49KT 3081 10218

12

The office that day

Everything else NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 1, 7:11 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Crockett	34 min
May 1, 7:33 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Pecos	27 min
May 1, 8:31 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Crockett	44 min
May 2, 4:01 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Crockett	44 min
May 2, 4:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Pecos	40 min
May 2, 4:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Pecos	42 min
May 2, 4:53 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MAF	Pecos	112 min
May 2, 5:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Pecos	48 min
May 2, 5:50 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MAF	Pecos	3 hr
May 2, 5:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Pecos, Terrell	50 min
May 2, 6:09 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Brewster	36 min
May 2, 6:16 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Pecos	29 min
May 2, 6:44 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MAF	Pecos	3 hr
May 2, 6:48 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MAF	Pecos	117 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Texas, 2019 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.