Severe Thunderstorm Warning 399, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
704 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
A few storms south of MAF and INK for a until around 02z these
then these should die out. Low clouds possible during the early
morning hours with MVFR cigs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 303 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019/

DISCUSSION...

Latest surface analysis shows a "cold" front located from the Rio
Grande northwest of Presidio eastward through Persimmon Gap, then
northeast from there into a mesolow between Fort Stockton and
Bakersfield. The front then continues east more or less along
I-10. Forecasting rain chances overnight is quite problematic with
a number of factors coming into play (or not even coming close to
one another). Currently have surface-based convection ongoing
over the Davis Mountains south to just above Presidio, while
elsewhere a stout EML is keeping a lid on convection from
realizing, this despite the latest mesoanalysis showing MLCAPE
values in excess of 4 kJ/kg over the central Permian Basin.

Current thinking is that the convection over the mountains will
maintain itself through early this evening until loss of sensible
heating and concomitant NBL formation cuts off surface-based
updrafts. Back across the Permian Basin, while the potential for
surface-based convection this afternoon and evening can't be
entirely ruled out, it may take the development of a modest low-
level jet after NBL formation this evening to force elevated
parcels to their LFCs. Hence the best chances for convection
overnight will be across the eastern Permian Basin.

For Wednesday, look for the low level wind flow to be mucked up by
outflow boundaries left over from tonight's thunderstorm activity.
Low level convergence might be enough to force parcels to their
LFCs but for now we think that, outside of the mountains, storms
will be elevated in nature and weaken over time as they shift
south and east. Over the elevated heat sources of the mountains,
however, moist upslope flow should facilitate convective growth.
Temperatures tomorrow will actually be below normal (a rarity for
August this year it seems).  Enjoy it while it lasts!

On Thursday and Friday, the best chances for thunderstorms will be
over the mountains of far west Texas and southeastern New Mexico
as high pressure aloft shunts the best instability farther west.
Rain chances return to the trans Pecos and the Permian Basin on
Saturday (and to a lesser extent Sunday) as high pressure shifts
west, putting the southern High Plains under northwesterly flow
aloft. A weak surface boundary, perhaps augmented/strengthened by
convective outflow, should be sufficient to promote scattered
thunderstorms. Temperatures will warm back up to above normal as
850 hPa temperatures rise and thicknesses rise, but fortunately
not as warm as what we experienced last weekend into yesterday.

Should be quiet as we go into the Labor Day weekend with
temperatures at or a touch above normal. Could see some diurnally-
forced convection over the mountains but the chances are pretty
low at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  88  72  97 /  50  40  20  10
Carlsbad                       70  89  70  96 /  30  30  20  10
Dryden                         77  95  75  99 /  20  20  10  10
Fort Stockton                  73  92  71  96 /  30  20  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 65  82  66  88 /  30  30  30  10
Hobbs                          67  85  67  95 /  40  30  20  10
Marfa                          63  88  62  89 /  30  30  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           71  90  71  97 /  40  30  20  10
Odessa                         71  90  71  97 /  40  30  20  10
Wink                           73  93  72 100 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
157 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-281900-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
157 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019 /1257 PM MDT Tue Aug 27 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible today and tonight.  Any storms that do
develop may be accompanied by frequent lightning, small hail, gusty
winds, and brief, heavy rainfall. Some of the storms across the
Permian Basin may be strong to severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
820 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019

NMZ028-034-TXZ059-280145-
Southern Lea County NM-Eddy County Plains NM-Loving TX-
820 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN EDDY...SOUTHWESTERN
LEA AND NORTH CENTRAL LOVING COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT/745 PM MDT/...

At 820 PM CDT/720 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 15 miles southwest of Eunice Airport, or 16 miles
northwest of Jal, moving southwest at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Eddy,
southwestern Lea and north central Loving Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3241 10345 3229 10325 3199 10342 3200 10397
TIME...MOT...LOC 0120Z 030DEG 15KT 3227 10340

23

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