Severe Thunderstorm Warning 390, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
639 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
TSRA are/will be in the CNM/PEQ areas til around 02Z and have
included a TEMPO at CNM only for now. Downburst winds are
possible. Otherwise easterly winds through night, decreasing in most
areas after 09Z and holding into Wed PM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 303 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019/

DISCUSSION...

As of this forecast issuance, a frontal boundary is through the
Permian Basin and slowly pushing south of the Pecos River. Thanks
to compressional warming, current temperature at MAF has risen to
101F, whereas upper 80s to lower 90s reside across the northern
CWA. Pre-frontal convection is ongoing over the Marfa Plateau and
into C Brewster/ S Pecos Co. This area will be the focus for PoPs
through this afternoon, however there is a broad instability axis
of ML CAPE values 1500-2000 J/kg which succeed the frontal
boundary. Therefore, isolated showers and thunderstorms are
possible this afternoon into this evening across the Permian Basin
as well. Storm activity will dwindle after sunset. Lows tonight
will fall into the U60s/M70s.

The 500 mb high will reposition over AZ/NM by tomorrow and
northeasterly to easterly sfc flow will continue throughout the
day which shove the LLTR west of the CWA. This will in turn take
the edge off the heat across the region with highs in the mid 90s
expected for most locations. Models continue to indicate a weak
disturbance will develop in northerly flow aloft over eastern NM
tomorrow night. 12Z GFS, NAM, and 3km NEST show a complex of
storms developing and dropping into southeast NM after 00Z.
Decided to keep high PoPs over this area since there is good
model agreement.

High temperatures on Thursday should also be near or slightly above
normal as high pressure aloft remains west of the region and 850
hpa temps stay mainly below 30C. The highest PoPs Thursday will
be confined to the higher terrain of West Texas and southeast New
Mexico. Unfortunately, it looks like mainly dry conditions and
widespread 100F temperatures will make a return this weekend as
high pressure aloft moves back overhead.

-Salerno

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     75  96  72  96 /  20  10  30  10
Carlsbad                       73  97  70  94 /  20  20  50  20
Dryden                         79 101  75 101 /  20  20  20  10
Fort Stockton                  75  97  72  97 /  30  20  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 70  88  67  89 /  20  20  30  20
Hobbs                          70  93  68  92 /  10  20  50  20
Marfa                          67  89  63  91 /  30  30  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           75  96  72  97 /  20  10  30  10
Odessa                         74  96  72  97 /  20  10  40  10
Wink                           76 100  73 100 /  20  10  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
220 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-141930-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
220 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 /120 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
through early this evening. The best chances for thunderstorms will
be over the mountains and adjacent plains of west Texas and
southeastern New Mexico as well as portions of the Big Bend. Strong
gusty winds and occasional lightning strikes are the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No widespread hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
505 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

NMZ028-132345-
Eddy County Plains NM-
505 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL EDDY COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM
MDT...

At 505 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Avalon, or 11 miles north of Carlsbad, moving east at 10 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Carlsbad, Avalon, Carlsbad North, Brantley Lake State Park, Lake
Avalon, Living Desert State Park, Dayton and Lakewood.

LAT...LON 3240 10432 3273 10440 3290 10406 3234 10392
TIME...MOT...LOC 2305Z 254DEG 10KT 3257 10428

80

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