Severe Thunderstorm Warning 324, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
620 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Storms are scattered across the area with new development near
boundaries INVOF MAF. We have opted to include TEMPO TSRA groups
at all TAFs sites, except INK, until 03Z. Near MVFR CIGS are
possible near sunrise at MAF/HOB.

&&
2
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 305 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019/

UPDATE...

See public discussion below.

DISCUSSION...

Public products have been updated for Severe Thunderstorm Watch
box # 391 until 10 pm CDT or 9 pm MDT for southeast New Mexico
and west Texas along and west of a Lamesa, Midland, Sheffield
line.

Products to be sent shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 205 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Despite a weak upper level ridge over the region strong to severe
thunderstorms are expected tonight through Tuesday night across
west Texas and portions of southeast New Mexico as a couple of
upper level disturbances move through the ridge and interact with
a moist and very unstable airmass. By Tuesday the dryline should
mix far enough east of southeast New Mexico to keep the precipitation
east of that area.

By Wednesday and Thursday zonal flow aloft will push the dryline
into west Central Texas and push the threat of thunderstorms
east of the forecast area. Low level thermal ridging and downslope
flow will allow high temperatures to climb to much above normal
values. Localized Heat Advisory criteria may be met near and
along the Rio Grande River(near Boquillas Canyon) Wednesday and
Thursday afternoon. Later shifts will need to monitor.

By Friday through next weekend southwesterly flow aloft will
develop once again ahead of a slow moving Pacific upper level
storm system. Default NBM guidance pops seem too low in this
regime and prefer the higher superblend pops for thunderstorms
in the eastern Permian Basin. Temperatures will remain above
normal through the extended forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  94  71 101 /  30  20  30   0
Carlsbad                       67  99  68 101 /  20  10   0   0
Dryden                         72  96  73 104 /  20  20  30  10
Fort Stockton                  70  96  72 102 /  30  30  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 66  91  68  94 /  20  10   0   0
Hobbs                          64  95  66  98 /  30  10   0   0
Marfa                          58  91  62  94 /  20  30  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           69  95  72 102 /  20  20  20   0
Odessa                         69  96  71 102 /  20  20  20   0
Wink                           68  99  69 104 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
202 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-181915-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
202 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019 /102 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across the area
this afternoon and tonight. There is a marginal to slight risk of
severe storms, capable of producing large hail and damaging wind.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms again Tuesday
over the Permian Basin to the lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend. Large
hail and damaging winds will be the main threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

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