Severe Thunderstorm Warning 312, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
626 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Have ongoing storms near FST with a few echos south of PEQ so
have included mention of TSRA this evening at both locations. Did
not mention storms at MAF or INK but with enhanced CU over them
it could develop. Otherwise VFR conditions with wind out of the
S/SW wind tonight becoming W and gusty tomorrow by midday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 305 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019/

DISCUSSION...

Near-term focus this afternoon is with convective initiation,
should it occur, and whether any convection will become severe.
CAMs have been persistent in developing convection over the
Permian Basin, with a secondary area of development in the Pecos
County area. In fact, we're seeing some initial stages of
development occurring now around Ft. Stockton. The airmass is
characterized by overall weak effective bulk shear (less than 30
knots) while MLCAPE values range from 1500 to 2000 J/kg. Latest
mesoanalysis shows about 200 J/kg of CIN which needs to be over-
come; however, a subtle short wave trough approaching from the
west may be sufficient along with an hour or so of additional
heating to overcome the EML. High LFCs bespeak the potential for
damaging wind gusts and, should a strong enough updraft persist,
quarter-sized hail or better is also in play. Will also hold onto
some low-order PoPs over the Big Bend for tonight as some elevated
instability will persist down there, particularly after midnight.

Saturday, we have a stronger short wave trough approaching the
southern High Plains. The surface reflection of this trough and
some stronger winds aloft will shove the dryline east into the Big
Country. With westerly to southwesterly downslope flow and
excellent insolation, temperatures will have no problem reaching
the century mark across the Permian Basin, the upper Trans Pecos,
and of course along the Rio Grande. The dryline will retreat
westward late in the evening, but with a stout EML in place, we do
not expect sensible weather during the afternoon or evening hours.

We'll see a slight cooldown Sunday with a modest weakening of the
low level thermal ridge. May see some isolated diurnally-driven
convection across the Davis and Glass Mountains as well as the
eastern Basin, but nothing much to speak of otherwise. Fathers Day
highs will be a little cooler, with 100s restricted to the upper
Trans Pecos and also along the Rio Grande. A short wave trough
over the Great Basin Saturday will transit the southern High
Plains in the Monday-Tuesday time frame (models differ somewhat on
precise timing), bringing with it a slight increase in rain
chances. As the aforementioned short wave trough exits to the
east, building short wave ridging aloft and a thermal ridge in the
low levels will result in reduced chances for rainfall along with
temperatures increasing to above the century mark at many
locations, with maybe 110 F possible along the Rio Grande, from
the middle of next week into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  99  70  97 /  30  10   0  10
Carlsbad                       71  98  66  96 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         71  96  70  96 /  30  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  72  99  70  98 /  20   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 68  90  65  91 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          65  97  62  95 /  10   0   0  10
Marfa                          62  92  60  93 /  30   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           71 100  70  99 /  20   0   0   0
Odessa                         70 100  70  99 /  20   0   0   0
Wink                           69 101  66 100 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
155 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-151900-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
155 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019 /1255 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through this evening. Some
storms may become strong to severe, with large hail and damaging
winds possible. Frequent lightning and heavy rain can be expected
with any storms that develop.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
620 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

TXZ075-278-150000-
Pecos TX-Davis Mountains Foothills TX-
620 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN PECOS AND NORTHERN
BREWSTER COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

At 620 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 25
miles north of Marathon, or 27 miles northeast of Alpine, moving east
at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Pecos
and northern Brewster Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Midland.

&&

LAT...LON 3065 10320 3057 10325 3043 10334 3061 10337
TIME...MOT...LOC 2320Z 249DEG 16KT 3058 10327

44