Severe Thunderstorm Warning 305, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
540 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Area radars show a few clusters of convection throughout the area
as the upper trough swings thru the region, and we've inserted
tempo groups all terminals to cover this, timed roughly w/the
trough passage. Otherwise, anvil debris should mitigate low clouds
developing overnight and, outside of convection, VFR conditions
should prevail. Forecast soundings redevelop a widespread cu field
Thu, but little additional convection is anticipated.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 301 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019/

DISCUSSION...

So far things are mostly quiet on KMAF radar with a few storms
trying to enter the far western CWA. Widespread CIN values 50-100
J/kg with ML CAPE only 500 J/kg have prohibited storm initiation
over the region. A storm is trying to bloom in the Davis Mtns, but
cap is too strong attm. Nonetheless, large scale lift associated
w/the upper low, which is now located over central New Mexico,
will increase over W TX/SE NM this evening and provide a focus for
storm growth. A few storms could become severe with large hail
and damaging winds due to adequate bulk shear values of 25-30 kts
coupled with mid-level lapse rates 7-8 deg C/km. After storms
exit the region late tonight, a dry and calm day is in store
tomorrow as a 500 mb ridge develops over the SW U.S.. High
temperatures tomorrow should be closer to normal (normal for MAF
is lower 90s.)

The ridge will continue to build over the region Fri-Sat while a
LLTR develops along and W of the Pecos River. This will help elevate
high temperatures above normal into the U90s/L100s on Friday. The
warmest day of the year so far looks to be Saturday where widespread
100s are likely (even 110+ along the Rio Grande). GFS and ECMWF
indicate a cold front will backdoor into the area on Sunday. This
front is progged to arrive during the mid-afternoon, which would
still allow highs to reach the M/U 90s. Post frontal easterly sfc
winds will continue into Monday which will hold temperatures well
below normal. PoPs will also make a return to the forecast Monday
afternoon mainly across the western zones. Precip chances will
continue into mid-week as the ridge slides west over AZ/CA leaving
the CWA in southwest flow aloft. Temperatures will remain at or
blow normal during this period.

-Salerno

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     62  88  65  94 /  60  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       61  92  63  99 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         67  97  72 101 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  64  91  67  98 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 60  86  65  93 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          58  87  62  95 /  30   0   0   0
Marfa                          53  89  56  95 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           63  90  66  96 /  30   0   0   0
Odessa                         62  90  65  96 /  30   0   0   0
Wink                           62  93  66 100 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

44/84/44

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
221 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-061930-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
221 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019 /121 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are likely again this afternoon and tonight. A few of
these storms will be capable of producing large hail...damaging
wind... and locally heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

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