Severe Thunderstorm Warning 288, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
628 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Main concern for this forecast is the potential for storms to
impact TAF sites as they move in from the west late evening and
overnight. By 02Z storms will be nearing CNM, 05Z HOB-INK-PEQ,
08Z-09Z MAF/FST. MVFR conditions are possible with storms, mostly
SE winds, but could be gusty/erratic near storms. As such we have
continued the TEMPO groups for TSRA at all TAF sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 235 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019/

DISCUSSION...

.Active weather pattern continues with severe storms and flooding
possible through midweek...

Not much change expected to the unsettled weather pattern through
mid week. An upper level storm system in southern California
will move very little through Tuesday night and then slowly eject
toward the southern plains Wednesday and Thursday. Ahead of this
system deep and persistent southwesterly flow aloft will eject
periodic disturbances and interact with a very moist, unstable and
sheared atmosphere east of a surface trough/dryline along the
extreme west Texas/eastern New Mexico border. Thunderstorms, some
severe, are anticipated tonight and Tuesday night in this regime.
The better chance of severe storms will remain west of the
eastern Permian Basin through Tuesday night as shear will only be
modest further east, but locally heavy rainfall can not be ruled
out anywhere across west Texas and southeast New Mexico through
Tuesday night with precipitable water values above normal.

Thunderstorms will still be possible Wednesday as the system
ejects slowly onto the western high plains with a few strong to
severe storms still possible. The upper level system is forecast
to continue to move away from the region Thursday with wrap around
showers and storms still possible across the northern and eastern
Permian Basin of west Texas.

Relief is finally forecast to be on the way by Friday through
the weekend with upper level ridging and above normal temperatures
expected.

A cold front is forecast to bring cooler temperatures early next
week. Precipitation chances with this front are uncertain at this
time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     67  82  66  87 /  70  50  70  40
Carlsbad                       64  87  64  89 /  80  30  60  20
Dryden                         70  84  69  90 /  70  50  60  30
Fort Stockton                  67  85  66  87 /  70  40  70  30
Guadalupe Pass                 62  81  61  84 /  80  40  60  20
Hobbs                          63  84  61  86 /  80  40  60  30
Marfa                          58  82  56  84 /  80  40  70  30
Midland Intl Airport           67  83  66  87 /  70  50  70  30
Odessa                         67  83  66  87 /  70  40  70  30
Wink                           67  87  64  89 /  80  30  70  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1141 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-041645-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
1141 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019 /1041 AM MDT Mon Jun 3 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms will be possible again this afternoon and tonight. Any
storms that do develop will be accompanied by frequent lightning,
locally heavy rainfall, small hail, and gusty winds.  There is a
slight risk of severe storms this afternoon and evening, capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is a slight risk of severe storms Tuesday afternoon and night.
Any severe storms that do develop will be capable of producing large
hail and damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible as early as this afternoon.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
844 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

NMZ028-034-TXZ059-067-273-274-040230-
Southern Lea County NM-Eddy County Plains NM-Loving TX-
Eastern Culberson County TX-Reeves County Plains TX-Ward TX-
844 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN EDDY...SOUTHERN
LEA...REEVES...NORTHWESTERN WARD...NORTHEASTERN CULBERSON AND LOVING
COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT/830 PM MDT/...

At 844 PM CDT/744 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 15 miles west of Red Bluff
Reservoir to 6 miles southeast of Toyah. Movement was east at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Pecos, Toyah, Mentone, Barstow, Red Bluff Reservoir, Orla, Toyah
Lake, B F Goodrich Testing Track, Pecos Municipal Airport, Slash
Ranch and Red Bluff.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 10 and 55.

LAT...LON 3204 10356 3121 10316 3120 10317 3115 10392
      3197 10441
TIME...MOT...LOC 0144Z 265DEG 17KT 3196 10419 3124 10373

80

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