Severe Thunderstorm Warning 260, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
501 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

.UPDATE...

Updated forecast for issuance of Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for southeast New
Mexico and portions of West Texas until 10 pm MDT/11 pm CDT. The
weather grids were updated to include severe mention across the
whole watch area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 253 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change expected to the unsettled weather pattern this
weekend through the middle of next week. An upper level storm
system along the California Coast will remain nearly stationary
through Monday and then slowly eject toward the forecast area
Tuesday and Wednesday. Ahead of this system deep and persistent
southwesterly flow aloft will eject periodic disturbances and
interact with a very moist, unstable and sheared atmosphere east
of a surface trough/dryline along the extreme west Texas/eastern
New Mexico border. Thunderstorms, some severe, are anticipated
every day in this regime. Through the day Monday, the highest
probability of thunderstorms will be across the southeast New
Mexico Plains south to the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, and the
plains immediately adjacent to the mountains. These locations will
be closer to the upper level storm system and passing disturbances.
By late Monday through Wednesday thunderstorms chances will also
increase across the Permian Basin as the system ejects into the
southern rockies.

Relief is finally forecast to be on the way by next Thursday
through Saturday as the upper system ejects east of the area and
replaced by upper level ridging with above normal temperatures
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     67  87  68  88 /  20  30  40  30
Carlsbad                       65  90  67  87 /  50  30  50  30
Dryden                         72  91  73  91 /  20  10  40  30
Fort Stockton                  69  88  70  88 /  50  20  50  40
Guadalupe Pass                 64  84  66  81 /  50  40  60  30
Hobbs                          64  85  65  81 /  50  30  60  40
Marfa                          60  86  60  84 /  50  30  60  40
Midland Intl Airport           67  88  69  87 /  30  30  40  40
Odessa                         67  88  69  86 /  30  30  50  40
Wink                           67  90  69  91 /  50  30  50  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

99/99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
242 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-021945-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
242 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019 /142 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms, some severe, will be possible this
afternoon and tonight. Large hail, damaging winds, frequent
lightning, locally heavy rainfall, and an isolated tornado will be
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Scattered thunderstorms, some severe, will be possible over much of
West Texas and southeastern New Mexico Sunday and Monday. The best
chances for severe thunderstorms will be in the afternoon and
evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

70

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
445 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

TXZ274-012230-
Reeves County Plains TX-
445 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL REEVES COUNTY UNTIL 530
PM CDT...

At 445 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles south of Pecos, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pecos, Toyah Lake, B F Goodrich Testing Track and Pecos Municipal
Airport.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 39 and 46.

LAT...LON 3114 10358 3127 10367 3143 10352 3140 10331
      3120 10320
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 235DEG 12KT 3124 10354

10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
405 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2019

NMZ028-012230-
Eddy County Plains NM-
405 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN EDDY COUNTY UNTIL
430 PM MDT...

At 405 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hope, moving east at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Artesia, Hope and Artesia Municipal Airport.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
southeastern New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3296 10484 3297 10435 3296 10434 3273 10452
      3261 10484
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 251DEG 30KT 3280 10479

10

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
506 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     HAIL             16 S PECOS              31.18N 103.50W
06/01/2019  E1.50 INCH       Reeves             TX   STORM CHASER

            QUARTER TO PING PONG SIZE HAIL

&&

CMR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
529 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

TXZ272-276>278-012300-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor TX-Marfa Plateau TX-
Davis Mountains TX-Davis Mountains Foothills TX-
529 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN JEFF DAVIS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL CULBERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

At 529 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles north of Valentine, or 22 miles southeast of Van Horn, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Jeff
Davis and south central Culberson Counties.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
southwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3072 10461 3080 10466 3108 10444 3075 10418
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 226DEG 20KT 3081 10456

10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
535 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

TXZ059-274-012300-
Loving TX-Reeves County Plains TX-
535 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL REEVES...
NORTHWESTERN WARD AND CENTRAL LOVING COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

At 535 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mentone, moving north at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mentone and Slash Ranch.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
western and southwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3161 10359 3159 10374 3188 10386 3191 10352
      3165 10358 3165 10361
TIME...MOT...LOC 2235Z 172DEG 26KT 3166 10366

10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
545 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

TXZ276-277-279-281-012330-
Central Brewster County TX-Presidio Valley TX-Marfa Plateau TX-
Davis Mountains TX-
545 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BREWSTER AND EAST
CENTRAL PRESIDIO COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

At 545 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 24
miles northeast of Big Bend Ranch State Park, moving northeast at 25
mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Brewster and east central Presidio Counties.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
southwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 2974 10400 2985 10407 3013 10386 3004 10371
      2989 10360
TIME...MOT...LOC 2245Z 227DEG 21KT 2984 10397

10