Severe Thunderstorm Warning 195, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
231 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

.DISCUSSION...

...Tornado Watch #232 in effect until 9 pm CDT for Borden,
Scurry, Dawson, and Gaines counties of the northern Permian Basin
of west Texas...

Deep and persistent southwesterly flow aloft with a mean upper
trough along the west coast and persistent upper jet across the
southwestern half of the nation is expected through the weekend.
The large fetch will allow periodic disturbances to eject and
track toward the region and sharpen the dryline near the west
Texas/eastern New Mexico border each day. Plenty of lift,
instability and shear will interact with the aforementioned
disturbances and should spark daily thunderstorms along the
dryline, some of which will be severe. With the flow aloft
parallel to the dryline training storms look likely as well with
localized flash flooding possible. Will mention in the zones and
hazardous weather outlook. Temperatures are expected to continue
to be near normal in this regime.

By Monday/Monday night the upper trough/low is forecast to move
east toward the Rockies. Have included a slight chance of
thunderstorms late Monday across portions of the Permian Basin
along the dryline as the upper system ejects. By late Tuesday the
cold front associated with this system will move through the
region. Thunderstorms will be possible along the front Tuesday
night in the eastern Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos in best
instability and low level convergence. More thunderstorms look
possible next Wednesday through Friday as southwesterly flow aloft
with disturbances impinge on a cold front. Temperatures will cool
to slightly below normal by next Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  88  69  85 /  40  30  20  30
Carlsbad                       67  95  69  93 /  10  10  20  10
Dryden                         73  91  72  89 /  20  20  20  20
Fort Stockton                  70  93  70  90 /  30  30  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 63  89  65  89 /  10   0  10   0
Hobbs                          66  89  65  85 /  20  20  30  40
Marfa                          61  92  63  90 /  20  10  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           70  89  69  86 /  40  30  20  40
Odessa                         69  89  69  86 /  40  30  20  40
Wink                           70  94  69  90 /  30  20  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

72/12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
206 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-251915-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
206 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019 /106 PM MDT Fri May 24 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
tonight across the Permian Basin... Trans Pecos... and portions of
Southeast New Mexico. Some of these storms could produce large
hail... damaging wind... and a few tornadoes. Locally heavy rain
will also be possible which could result in flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Severe thunderstorms are possible again Saturday and Sunday. Large
hail and damaging wind will be the main concern.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening
primarily along and east of a Hobbs to Fort Stockton line.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
431 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

TXZ075-082-282-242215-
Pecos TX-Terrell TX-Lower Brewster County TX-
431 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN PECOS...EAST CENTRAL
BREWSTER AND SOUTHWESTERN TERRELL COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

At 431 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles south of Sanderson, moving north at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sanderson, Dryden and Terrell County Airport.

LAT...LON 2977 10257 2975 10260 3023 10259 3027 10193
      2980 10195 2982 10198 2979 10199 2980 10204
      2979 10204 2978 10207 2980 10214 2985 10219
      2984 10222 2988 10232 2985 10237 2976 10239
      2979 10249 2978 10251 2977 10251 2975 10255
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 198DEG 28KT 2991 10243

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
447 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     HAIL             2 W BAKERSFIELD         30.89N 102.33W
05/24/2019  U1.00 INCH       Pecos              TX   PUBLIC

            VIDEO SEEN ON SNAPCHAT OF CRACKED WINDSHIELD DUE TO HAIL.
            EXACT SIZE OF LARGEST HAIL UNKNOWN.

&&

FERGUSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
448 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

TXZ075-242230-
Pecos TX-
448 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY UNTIL 530 PM
CDT...

At 448 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles southeast of Fort Stockton, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sierra Madera.

LAT...LON 3050 10291 3067 10301 3089 10278 3063 10267
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 243DEG 15KT 3071 10275

72

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