Severe Thunderstorm Warning 176, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
554 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

.DISCUSSION...

See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A dryline stalled just west of Midland, Odessa, Fort Stockton
line has recently produced large hail at KMAF. Expect another
round of tempo MVFR storms at KMAF through 21/06z as the cold
front collides with the dryline and moves east of KMAF around or
just after 21/06z. Winds will turn westerly at all terminals
with VFR conditions expected through Tuesday afternoon. Winds
will be westerly at 20 to 35 mph and gusty.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough approaching the Four corners area,
leaving West texas and Southeast New Mexico under very progressive
SW flow aloft.  At the sfc, a sfc trough over far west Texas has
resulted in a surge of Gulf moisture into the region, w/the 70F
isodrosotherm edging into our ern counties, making it feel more like
east Texas than west, and banking the dryline up against the higher
terrain.  The approach/arrival of the trough will result in
increasing winds over much of the area this afternoon/night, and
we've extended the warning in the Guadalupes/Delawares into Tue
evening as a secondary trough approaches. KMAF VWP shows a 25kt LLJ
right off the deck, and this is forecast to increase to 60+kts after
dark. Needless to say, parameters for severe wx later today are
impressive.  KMAF 18Z sounding shows mucapes in excess of 4600 J/kg,
mid-lvl lapse rates of over 7C/km, deep lyr shear of 50kts, and 0-
1km SRH of 54 m2/s2. Already, convection is developing over the
South Plains, w/a tor watch in effect for our NE six counties. Hi-
res models call for a first round of supercells this afternoon,
w/very large hail and a tornado or two, then more of a squall
line/QLCS developing late this evening as the Pac front arrives,
w/damaging winds becoming the main hazard.

Tue/Wed should be convective down days, w/post-frontal temps well-
below normal Tue, then rebounding to above-normal Wed under
continuing SW flow aloft as the secondary trough digs to CA/NV/AZ by
00Z Thu.  Wed night, another sfc trough develops out west, resulting
in a surge of Gulf moisture return similar to last night's.  This
will sharpen up the dryline out west, w/a chance of convection
developing along and east of this feature as shortwaves round the
base of the trough and move into the area.  Thu, the trough ejects
into the upper Midwest, to be replaced by a tertiary trough over the
SW CONUS.  Chances look even better for convection Thu night, when
long-range models hint at developing a MCS over the Wrn Low Rolling
Plains.  Fri/Sat, a slight chance of convection will remain along
the dryline, w/long-range models hinting at the ridge over the Gulf
Coast states slipping under the trough and shifting to the wrn
CONUS.  This will result in temps climbing to above-normal by
Memorial Day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     57  80  57  91 /  80   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       52  80  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         63  90  63  94 /  20   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  56  84  58  94 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 47  74  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          49  78  52  89 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          48  81  48  92 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           56  81  57  92 /  50   0   0  10
Odessa                         56  81  57  92 /  50   0   0  10
Wink                           55  84  54  95 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory until 3 AM MDT Tuesday for Central Lea County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM MDT Tuesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Tuesday for Eddy County Plains.

TX...Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for Andrews-Borden-Crane-
     Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-
     Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-
     Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM MDT Tuesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

     High Wind Warning until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for Davis Mountains-
     Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

99/99/12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
104 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-211815-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
104 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019 /1204 PM MDT Mon May 20 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A significant severe weather event is likely through tonight,
especially across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Very
large to giant hail will be possible, along with tornadoes, some
of which could be significant, and damaging winds. The greatest
risk for significant severe weather through tonight will be across
the eastern Permian Basin and the western Low Rolling Plains. Flash
flooding will also be possible especially across the eastern Permian
Basin.

High winds are expected through tonight in the Guadalupe Mountains
and the Eddy County New Mexico Plains extending south into the Davis
Mountains. Winds will also increase across the Permian Basin, Lea
county New Mexico, Marfa Plateau and the Lower Trans Pecos and a
wind advisory is in effect through tonight. Fire weather concerns
are elevated across southeast New Mexico and the Trans Pecos.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Thunderstorms, some severe, will be possible across much of the
area, except the mountains, during the afternoon and evening hours
Wednesday through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is recommended. City, county and state resources
may be in high demand.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
820 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     TSTM WND DMG     13 W GARDEN CITY        31.87N 101.70W
05/20/2019                   Glasscock          TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL POWER POLES DOWN ALONG STATE HIGHWAY 158 AT STATE
            HIGHWAY 137.

&&

CMR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
831 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

TXZ051-062-063-210215-
Midland TX-Martin TX-Glasscock TX-
831 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN GLASSCOCK...
NORTHEASTERN MIDLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MARTIN COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM
CDT...

At 831 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Stanton, or 13 miles northeast of Greenwood, moving northeast at 45
mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Midland, Greenwood, Stanton, Courtney, Midland Airpark and Stanton
Municipal Aiport.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 133 and 163.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for western
Texas.

LAT...LON 3195 10213 3207 10211 3228 10169 3207 10170
TIME...MOT...LOC 0131Z 238DEG 40KT 3217 10174

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
843 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     HAIL             BIG SPRING              32.25N 101.48W
05/20/2019  E1.00 INCH       HOWARD             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NORTH PART OF TOWN AND SOUTH PART OF TOWN

&&

CMR

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