Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
238 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

.DISCUSSION...

The focus remains on the potential for widespread severe weather
this afternoon and tonight.

Temperatures today have reached the lower to middle 80s across the
area, with a dryline located roughly along a Tatum-Coyanosa-
Panther Junction line this afternoon. Dewpoints to the west of the
dryline have dropped into the 30s and 40s, and to the east,
dewpoints increase to the middle 60s across the central and
eastern Permian Basin. Storms have already begun to develop over
the Davis Mountains, though have struggled to maintain integrity
as they move northeastward across southern Reeves county. As the
dryline sharpens and an upper jet continues to edge toward the
region, storms are expected to become surface based, with rapid
intensification possible in an environment characterized by
upwards of 3000 J/kg CAPE, little to no CIN, and bulk shear
approaching 40kt. Initial storm mode is expected to be splitting
supercells, with the potential for large to very large hail and
damaging winds in excess of 60-70 mph, especially across the
Permian Basin and Trans Pecos regions of West Texas. While the
greater tornado risk exists further north into the Panhandle in
closer vicinity to the triple point, tornadoes will also be
possible across the Permian Basin, Trans Pecos, and Stockton
Plateau.

After the first round of convection this afternoon into this
evening, a second round is expected overnight. The negatively
tilted upper trough responsible for the active weather today will
lift northeastward across New Mexico toward the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles overnight. The accompanying trough axis as well as the
nose of an upper jet will yield a resurgence of convection after
midnight, most likely initiating over the far western Permian
Basin southward across the Trans Pecos. The interaction of the
Pacific front with the dryline will result in a quick transition
to a quasi-linear storm mode, with damaging straight line winds
the primary threat overnight as the storms surge eastward.
Isolated tornadoes also cannot be ruled out overnight as the line
progresses across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos, with
storms expected to move into the Big Country and Concho Valley by
sunrise.

In the wake of the departing storms, a couple of relatively quiet
days are on tap for midweek. Available moisture, as well as storm
activity will be shunted eastward on Wednesday, with temperatures
expected to top out in the 80s for most, with 90s through the Rio
Grande Valley. A cold front will move through the region on
Thursday, resulting in cooler temperatures in the upper 60s north
to 80s south. The front could also act as a focus for convection
Thursday afternoon, mainly across the Stockton and Edwards
Plateaus will moisture will be more abundant.

Thereafter, southwest flow aloft returns to the region ahead of
another upper trough digging southward toward Baja at the end of
the week. Guidance indicates a very slow eastward progression of
this trough, which would maintain moist southwesterly flow aloft
through the upcoming weekend into early next week. Increasing lift
ahead of the trough as well as any shortwaves embedded in the
southwesterly flow could be enough to result in additional
thunderstorms, thus have maintained slight chance-chance mention
from Friday onward. Temperatures will be well below normal Friday
in the 60s for most, gradually warming into the 70s and 80s by
early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     62  86  54  71 /  70   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       56  85  54  74 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         66  92  62  83 /  40   0   0  20
Fort Stockton                  59  85  57  75 /  40   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 51  76  52  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          53  82  49  70 /  30   0   0   0
Marfa                          47  78  46  77 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           59  85  55  73 /  60   0   0   0
Odessa                         58  85  54  73 /  60   0   0   0
Wink                           56  86  55  77 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

05/84

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
319 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-082030-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
319 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019 /219 PM MDT Tue May 7 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

 * Tornado Watch #145 in effect until 11 pm CDT for the Permian
   Basin, western Low Rolling Plains, and the lower Trans-Pecos of
   west Texas.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms...some severe...are expected late
this afternoon through the evening hours over the Permian Basin,
western Low Rolling Plains, and the lower Trans-Pecos regions of west
Texas. Very large hail, wind gusts exceeding 60 mph, frequent cloud-
to-ground lightning, and isolated tornadoes are all in play.

By late evening, a line of thunderstorms is expected to develop from
near the Texas/New Mexico border southward to the lee of the Davis
Mountains. Though large hail will remain a possibility, the greatest
threat will be damaging winds as this line of storms moves across a
large part of southwest Texas east of the mountains. An isolated
tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is anticipated late this afternoon.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

70

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
447 PM CDT TUE MAY 7 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     HAIL             7 NNW ANDREWS           32.42N 102.59W
05/07/2019  M2.00 INCH       Andrews            TX   PUBLIC

            HIGHWAY 385 AND 1967

&&

CMR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
451 PM CDT TUE MAY 7 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0448 PM     TORNADO          14 N FORT STOCKTON      31.09N 102.89W
05/07/2019                   Pecos              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

CMR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
454 PM CDT TUE MAY 7 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     TORNADO          13 N FORT STOCKTON      31.08N 102.89W
05/07/2019                   Pecos              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

CMR