Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
707 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Storms are far enough removed from TAF sites to keep mention of
TSRA out, except FST for a few more hrs. Otherwise erratic/gusty
outflow winds will be the main concern through late evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 427 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019/

UPDATE...
Severe thunderstorm watch #133 til 11 PM CDT PB/Trans Pecos.

DISCUSSION...
Weak cap/strong daytime heating/steep lapse/moderate CAPES/
sufficient shear are all in place for a few severe storms with
large/giant hail and severe wind gusts.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 235 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Another day, another round of scattered severe thunderstorms are
expected to develop this afternoon and evening. Current
radar/satellite already shows convection forming between the Pecos
River and Davis Mountains. MLCAPE is moderate but SBCAPE is
impressive at greater than 3KJ/Kg. 0-6km shear is 30-35kts which
is somewhat weak though early radar returns are showing tilt so
there probably is enough present for severe storms. Models show
the entire dryline getting active this afternoon with storms
developing from the Big Bend to the central Permian Basin and
slowly moving east.

Tomorrow and Tuesday show no real change with the dryline
remaining active thanks to west-southwesterly upper flow and ample
low level moisture convergence. Tuesday may be the greatest risk
for severe weather as a deep upper trough moves into the Four
Corners region. Upper winds will back from a much more southerly
direction and the approach of an upper jet will increase
divergence, instability, and shear aloft. The arrival of the jet
lags max heating which could be a factor in storm areal coverage.

The trough moves into the Central Plains Wednesday bringing the
one day this week that there will be dry weather with no rain
chances. Thursday a cold front arrives bringing colder
temperatures and more rain chances. Thankfully, a stable airmass
behind the cold front will eliminate a severe weather risk for a
few days with isentropic lift producing light rain and rain
showers with perhaps a few thunderstorms returning by the end of
the week. Temperatures behind the front will be below normal for
this time of year and slow to warm due to a second low pressure
system that only slowly moves across the Desert Southwest
providing ample clouds and easterly low level winds.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     63  85  64  85 /  30  20  30  20
Carlsbad                       58  93  59  88 /  10  10  10   0
Dryden                         65  84  66  87 /  40  40  30  20
Fort Stockton                  62  88  64  88 /  30  40  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 60  85  59  80 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                          57  88  59  86 /  10  20  10  10
Marfa                          54  85  51  85 /  20  30  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           63  86  64  87 /  20  20  20  10
Odessa                         62  87  64  87 /  20  20  20  10
Wink                           62  92  63  91 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
220 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-061930-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
220 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019 /120 PM MDT Sun May 5 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a chance of severe thunderstorms across parts of the area
for this afternoon and tonight. Large hail and damaging winds will
be possible with these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the
area Monday and Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible this afternoon.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
815 PM CDT SUN MAY 5 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 E KEY                 32.73N 101.77W
05/05/2019  M60 MPH          Dawson             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BLOWING DUST WITH WINDS

&&

SCOTT.KLEEBAUER

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