River Flood Warning 10, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
638 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019

.UPDATE...
Canceling Flash Flood Watch.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The Flash Flood Watch for the southern CWA was set to expire at
12z. However as the threat of widespread heavy rain is not
expected in that area today went ahead and cancelled the watch.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms does remain across much of
the area today but any heavy rain should be very localized.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 610 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019/

DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Low ceilings are expected at HOB until around 16z; otherwise, VFR
conditions will occur. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms
during the TAF period. Winds will generally be light out of the
south but will be somewhat variable.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 335 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019/

DISCUSSION...
One upper trough crosses the Rockies onto the plains today as the
next one moves ashore the WA/OR coast.  This next trough will
develop a cut off low over the Great Basin Monday that moves down
across AZ to Mexico Tuesday.  This low will wobble around a couple
days before lifting NE across NM late Thursday/early Friday.  As it
does a third upper trough/low will swing down across WA and slowly
sink across OR and CA Saturday and Sunday.  As all this happens the
region will stay on the western edge of the ridge which remains over
the SE US.

Rain fell across much of the area Saturday and a broad swatch of
light to moderate rain continued from Presidio to Snyder overnight.
Panther Junction... Rio Grande Village... Chisos Basin and Lamesa
all reported over an inch of rain.  This ongoing rainfall should
continue to weaken and slowly drift east the rest of the night. Will
leave the Flash Flood Watch in effect until it expires at 12z. There
will be a lower chance for additional showers and thunderstorms
across much of the area today and tonight.  With an upper low
setting up west of the area for the first of the week will have a
chance of more showers and storms each day.

Temperatures today and Monday should be a little cooler with the
clouds and rain. Expect to see widespread 80s today and Monday with
90s returning Tuesday and continuing the rest of the week.  A weak
front is expected to move down into the South Plains today but
should not make it into the CWA.  Looking out the next 10 days no
fropa is expected so will be little day to day change in
temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     85  68  87  69 /  30  30  40  40
Carlsbad                       88  65  88  67 /  10  10  30  30
Dryden                         92  74  94  73 /  30  30  30  20
Fort Stockton                  85  67  87  68 /  30  30  40  30
Guadalupe Pass                 79  63  80  63 /  20  10  30  40
Hobbs                          84  63  84  65 /  10  10  30  40
Marfa                          79  59  81  60 /  40  20  40  40
Midland Intl Airport           86  69  88  70 /  20  30  30  30
Odessa                         86  69  88  69 /  20  20  30  30
Wink                           88  68  90  69 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

80/72

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
633 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-231145-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
633 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 /533 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible across the area today and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

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