Red Flag Warning 9, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

755 
WWUS84 KMAF 271932
RFWMAF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
232 PM CDT Mon May 27 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ TUESDAY 
FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15% OR LESS, 20 FT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR 
MORE, AND VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR THE GUADALUPE 
MOUNTAINS...

.Poor overnight relative humidity recovery, increasing 20 ft
winds ahead of an approaching upper-level storm system, and very
high to extreme Fire Danger will result in critical fire weather
conditions in the Guadalupe Mountains through Tuesday. Near
critical fire weather conditions are expected in adjacent areas.

NMZ114-TXZ258-280900-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-190529T0300Z/
Guadalupe Mountains-
232 PM CDT Mon May 27 2019 /132 PM MDT Mon May 27 2019/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/
TUESDAY FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15 PERCENT OR LESS, 20 FOOT WINDS
OF 20 MPH OR MORE, AND VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER...

* WIND...Today...Southwest winds 20 to 25 mph increasing to 30 
  to 40 mph in the afternoon. Tonight...West 20 to 25 mph. 
  Tuesday...West 15 to 20 mph increasing to 20 to 30 mph in the 
  afternoon. 

* HUMIDITY...Today...6 to 12%. Tonight...18 to 30%. Tuesday...7 
  to 10%. 

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will increase
potential for fire growth.

&&

$$

003 
WWUS84 KMAF 280950
RFWMAF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
450 AM CDT Tue May 28 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15% OR LESS, 20 FT WINDS OF
20 MPH OR MORE, AND VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR THE 
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...

.Poor overnight relative humidity recovery, increasing 20 ft
winds ahead of an approaching upper-level storm system, and very
high to extreme Fire Danger will result in critical fire weather
conditions in the Guadalupe Mountains through this evening. Near 
critical fire weather conditions are expected in adjacent areas.

NMZ114-TXZ258-290300-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-190529T0300Z/
Guadalupe Mountains-
450 AM CDT Tue May 28 2019 /350 AM MDT Tue May 28 2019/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15% OR LESS, 20 FT WINDS OF
20 MPH OR MORE, AND VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR THE 
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...

* WIND...West 15 to 20 mph increasing to 20 to 30 mph in the 
  afternoon. 
 
* HUMIDITY...6 to 11%.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will increase
potential for fire growth.

&&

$$

509 
WWUS84 KMAF 281902
RFWMAF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
202 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15% OR LESS, 20 FT WINDS OF
20 MPH OR MORE, AND VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...

.Poor overnight relative humidity recovery, increasing 20 ft
winds ahead of an approaching upper-level storm system, and very
high to extreme Fire Danger will result in critical fire weather
conditions in the Guadalupe Mountains through this evening. Near
critical fire weather conditions are expected in adjacent areas.

NMZ114-TXZ258-290300-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-190529T0300Z/
Guadalupe Mountains-
202 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019 /102 PM MDT Tue May 28 2019/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15% OR LESS, 20 FT WINDS OF
20 MPH OR MORE, AND VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...

* WIND...West 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts. 

* HUMIDITY...6 to 11%.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will increase
potential for fire growth.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1221 AM CDT Mon May 27 2019

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

KMAF VWP shows a 50+ LLJ right off the deck tonight, as has been
the case the past few nights, although tonight winds are veered a
little more to the south. As such, and w/a fetch of high cloud
over the lwr Trans Pecos, stratus development KMAF/KHOB is in
question overnight. Models and forecast soundings do not develop
it, but development has been a given the past few nights, and
we've inserted some MVFR cigs to cover a few hrs after sunrise
Mon. Otherwise, forecast soundings suggest a cu field developing
KMAF/KINK/KFST late morning/afternoon, w/bases 4.5-5 kft AGL.
Convective temps elsewhere (i.e., other side of the dryline) look
to be too high. Little convection is expected for Memorial Day,
but the LLJ returns Mon night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 921 PM CDT Sun May 26 2019/

UPDATE...

Forecast updated to drop severe thunderstorm watch 255 for parts
of the forecast area. While isolated thunderstorms can not be
ruled out tonight, the threat of severe weather has ended.
Precipitations chances also reworked based on current trends with
all other forecast parameters looking to be in good shape. All
updates out.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 606 PM CDT Sun May 26 2019/

DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Thunderstorms are expected across southeast New Mexico this
evening affecting CNM and HOB. Winds will be gusty out of the
south southeast this evening then weaken during the overnight
hours. Low ceilings are expected to impact MAF and HOB late
tonight into Monday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 152 PM CDT Sun May 26 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Strong closed low rolling across CA today will move into the Great
Basin tonight before reaching the Four Corners region Monday night.
This low will roll across CO Tuesday and into NE by evening. As
it does a secondary trough will swing across Northern Mexico and
into W TX Wednesday. A similar trough will follow that one on
Thursday with a broad trough moving into NV Friday..

Have brisk S to SE surface flow with good low level moisture flowing
into the area... dewpts in the 60s extend across most of the region.
There is a slight risk severe storms today across much of the
Permian Basin and portions of Southeast New Mexico and the Trans
Pecos. Widespread clouds has limiting insolation but beginning to
get breaks as of 18z.  Did have showers develop across Lea county
before noon... have also precip develop across Brewster county.
Increased pops across southern half of the area tonight based on
recent radar trends.  Models not developing much precip Monday
during the day but SPC has a marginal risk out DY2 across much of
the area... looks like may be better after 00z.

A High Wind Warning remains in effect for Guadalupe Mountains above
5500ft with a watch for tomorrow... have not seen high wind speeds
yet but will leave it in effect as clearing cloud cover could result
in more mixing.

Should be warmer tomorrow in the low to mid 90s and very hot
along the Rio Grande with highs of 101 to 109 expected. Readings
should be near normal on Tuesday and a little cooler Wednesday
then warming toward the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns increase today through Tuesday across the
Guadalupe Mountains. The base of an upper trough is beginning to
move over the area. This will result in stronger winds in the trough
mixing down to the surface across the Guadalupe Mountains today
through Tuesday. Minimum relative humidities of 15 percent or less
are expected west of the Pecos River today and expand eastward into
the Permian Basin Monday and Tuesday. RFTI values of 5 to 7 are
expected across the Guadalupe Mountains today through Tuesday. A
Fire Weather Watch is in effect for the Guadalupe Mountains on
Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     91  66  88  63 /   0  20   0  30
Carlsbad                       92  59  88  58 /   0  10   0   0
Dryden                         94  71  95  70 /  10  10   0  20
Fort Stockton                  95  65  91  64 /  10  10   0  40
Guadalupe Pass                 86  57  80  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          89  58  85  57 /   0  10   0  10
Marfa                          90  54  86  54 /   0  10   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           92  66  89  63 /   0  20   0  30
Odessa                         93  66  89  62 /   0  20   0  30
Wink                           96  63  91  61 /   0  10   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch Monday afternoon for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from 11 AM MDT Monday through Monday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from this afternoon through this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from 11 AM MDT Monday through Monday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet.

&&

44/24/44

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
419 AM CDT Mon May 27 2019

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-280930-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
419 AM CDT Mon May 27 2019 /319 AM MDT Mon May 27 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible again today and tonight. Any
storms that do develop will be accompanied by frequent lightning,
small hail, gusty winds, and brief, heavy rainfall.  A storm or two
could become severe, capable of producing large hail and damaging
winds.  An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for the Guadalupe Mountains.

A High Wind Warning is in effect for the Guadalupe mountains through
this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for the Guadalupe Mountains Tuesday.

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms Wednesday, capable of producing
large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

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