Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

208 
WWUS84 KMAF 162016
RFWMAF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
216 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019


NMZ115-TXZ045-050-058>060-067-075-170100-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190217T0100Z/
Southeast Plains-Gaines-Andrews-
Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Loving-Winkler-Ward-Pecos-
216 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019 /116 PM MST Sat Feb 16 2019/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/
THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
PERMIAN BASIN, THE UPPER TRANS PECOS AND THE STOCKTON PLATEAU...

* AFFECTED AREA...Southeast New Mexico, the west and northwest 
  Permian Basin,the Upper Trans Pecos and Stockton Plateau. 

* WIND...West 20 to 35 mph with higher gusts 40 to 55 mph.

* HUMIDITY...10 to 15 percent.

* FIRE DANGER...Very high.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now or will shortly.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1028 PM CST Fri Feb 15 2019

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will become easterly at MAF and will become southwesterly at
the other terminals overnight. Winds will increase out of the west
by 18z Saturday with wind gusts of 30 to near 40 kts expected
during the afternoon. Mostly VFR conditions are expected through
the period, except for possible blowing dust due to the wind.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 246 PM CST Fri Feb 15 2019/

DISCUSSION...

Potent westerly flow aloft will continue through the weekend as
an upper level storm system passes north across the central
Rockies and central Plains. This flow will rapidly intensify a
lee surface low across the high plains and shove a cold front well
east of the Permian Basin by Saturday afternoon. Strong winds are
expected in the Guadalupe Mountains through Saturday evening and
possibly the Davis Mountains above 5500 feet Saturday afternoon
and evening. Wind Advisories will also likely be need across
southeast New Mexico and a significant portion of west Texas
Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will continue much above normal
Saturday with low level thermal ridging in place along with
downslope flow and decreasing clouds. The dry Pacific front will
pass through Saturday night and temperatures will get knocked back
to more normal values Sunday.

By Monday and Monday night temperatures are expected to become
much below normal north and east of the Pecos River as a
reinforcing surge of higher pressure presses southwest toward
the mountains. At the same time the next upper level storm system
is forecast to track across the Rockies through Tuesday. Lift
generated by this system (and the right rear quadrant of the upper
level jet) above the surface cold dome will produce a chance of
light precipitation mainly late Monday night and Tuesday mainly
north and east of the Pecos River in southeast New Mexico and the
Permian Basin of west Texas. Forecast soundings indicate the
potential for a light mix of rain, freezing rain, ice pellets, and
freezing drizzle.

Behind this system dry weather is expected next Tuesday night
through Thursday with a gradual warming trend to more normal
values by next Thursday and Friday.

FIRE WEATHER...

It has been very windy today, fortunately plenty of moisture is
streaming in from the west keeping humidities well above 20 percent.
This will not be the case tomorrow as the windy conditions continue
but humidities drop into the teens. The ERC values are increasing
but may be just short of what is needed for a red flag warning so we
are not issuing a watch for Saturday at this time. Winds diminish
Sunday improving the fire weather threat and a strong cold front
arrives Monday and Tuesday bringing sharply colder temperatures and
increasing moisture. Warmer and drier conditions return the end of
next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     38  76  39  62 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       48  71  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         55  84  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  51  79  43  65 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 43  62  33  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          40  70  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          40  72  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           44  76  39  63 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         47  76  39  64 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           47  76  36  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST Saturday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening
     for Davis/Apache Mountains Area.

     High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST Saturday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

99/99/

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
242 PM CST Fri Feb 15 2019

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-162045-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
242 PM CST Fri Feb 15 2019 /142 PM MST Fri Feb 15 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

High winds are expected in the Guadalupe Mountains today with gusts
to around 70 mph in the favored areas. A High Wind Warning is in
effect.

Elevated fire weather conditions will continue through this afternoon
across southeast New Mexico and the northwest and north Permian
Basin. A Fire Danger Statement has been issued.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

High winds will continue in the Guadalupe Mountains Saturday with
gusts to around 70 mph, A High Wind Warning remains in effect. High
winds are possible in the Davis Mountains above 5500 feet Saturday. A
High Wind Watch is in effect. Additionally, windy conditions are
forecast Saturday for southeast New Mexico the Permian Basin, the Low
Rolling Plains, and the Trans Pecos Region.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected across much
of the area Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland